Live data from Hacker News

The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

wsj.com

41–50 of 79 posts

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#41

I think a lot of the student debt crisis is self-inflicted. No one is forcing you to attend a 4 year straight from high-school, go to a community college and then transfer to a state school/4 year. (I spent 3 years at a CC, but I graduated from a UC and paid off my student loans within a year) Yes, college is expensive, but there is an existing alternative that everyone seems to forget about and it boggles my mind.

A lot of kids are essentially forced. Maybe not with a gun, but there is strong societal and familial pressure to get into the best school that they can, and that’s engrained into them from a pretty early age. They are taught that their value as a human being is heavily dependent on academic success. Then, the people who raised them, and who they trust the most, tell them to sign on whatever dotted line is in front o…

I mentioned this to my parents and they basically brushed it off. We were told from middle school onward that you need a bachelors degree to succeed. We were even shown graphs about average lifetime earnings. High school students are woefully unprepared to weigh the financial decisions that college requires.

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#42
I understand that one is privileged to some extent to have been able to pay off student debt. But, I can't help but think it could be problematic to cancel all student debt and in effect penalize all those who worked hard to save and pay off their debt.

Only a couple years ago it was advantageous to pay off your student debt quickly to avoid interest. Now it seems beneficial to pay the monthly minimum only and hope that the debt gets forgiven by the government at some point...

Does any one know if any of the Democratic candidates have talked about this issue?

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#43
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't much of a student loan market. The overwhelming majority of student loans are made by the government with no underwriting and the rates set arbitrarily.

The market is on the other end. Loans are constantly resold after being issued, which is why people regularly get new student loan processors.

I don’t believe that’s the case. My understanding is that the government holds on to the loans but hires servicers to interact with borrowers. These servicing contracts are subject to competitive bids and that’s why people regularly get new processors.

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#44

Interesting that there is no mention here of the drastically inflated number of administrators in colleges as compared to say 30 years ago. “literally nobody knows who these people are or what they are doing” https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinesimon/2017/09/05/bureau...

They are yesterday's grad students, of course.

Higher education is a ponzi scheme, from books to peer review to administration.

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#45
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also a free and fair option, just let people go bancrupt on their student loans. We've already seen politicians bailing out loans to help their reach friends, but saying it's all for the people. Don't let history repeat itself

The problem with allowing people to BK their student loans is that it creates a perverse incentive. If you BK over a car, it gets repossessed. But nobody can take your education back. A BK at 22-23 years of age is not a strong deterrent; you'll still be able to buy a house in your early 30s, which is when a lot of people plan to do that anyways. You can make loans dischargeable, but doing so will drastically change w…

BK still hits your credit score and employers might not hire you knowing you BKed on your obligations.

BK's on your undergrad also would make it harder to take out loans for post graduate courses.

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#46
post #42

I understand that one is privileged to some extent to have been able to pay off student debt. But, I can't help but think it could be problematic to cancel all student debt and in effect penalize all those who worked hard to save and pay off their debt. Only a couple years ago it was advantageous to pay off your student debt quickly to avoid interest. Now it seems beneficial to pay the monthly minimum only and hope t…

Not based on direct evidence, but based on the candidates' rhetoric and Democrats' typical platform goals, I'm thinking they will prioritize forgiveness for low earners, similar to how they limit write-offs for student loan interest payments to incomes below a threshold (I think it was 80k last year? I don't remember).

So if you're already in a place to pay it off without struggling, I'm betting your life won't change that much. I'll just be happy to see my loans gone. If I end up paying it off in 5 years and find out it all would have been forgiven regardless, C'est la vie.

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#47

Interesting that there is no mention here of the drastically inflated number of administrators in colleges as compared to say 30 years ago. “literally nobody knows who these people are or what they are doing” https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinesimon/2017/09/05/bureau...

Teacher salaries are the biggest factor in price increases. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/05/bl...

I call shenanigans, and yes, I've gone to the source[0] the article cites.

First off, the source doesn't even claim that. They measure total expenses on instruction. The instructors might be getting a shitty pay (most do), but the expenses could be high if the instructor:student ratio is high enough.

Secondly, I highly question their data and methodology.

The only relevant data to support the claim you made is in Figure 14. That figure does not explain how the expenses on "instructors" are tallied.

To start, the universities have purely teaching faculty and research faculty that also teach. The latter can be highly salaried, but also bring a lot of money to the university in the form of research grants, which actually pay the high salaries.

Thus research spending and instructional spending are likely mixed in Figure 14.

(It is a well-known fact that most of instruction is down by adjunct faculty at slave wages).

Going further, I don't see a distinction between undergraduate and graduate instruction. A graduate seminar, say, on tropical varieties for non-archimedean analytic spaces that exactly 5 students are enrolled in because it's something they need for their research can be formally listed as a class, but this 1:5 instructor-to-student ratio is not something a typical undergraduate student will ever see. Furthermore, whether the TA's (grad students) are counted in such ratios is unclear.

Now, let's look at the data[1].

From 1970 to 2009, the instructors' salaries have seen a modest increase (about $4K/year) after adjusting for inflation[4], less than 6%.

However, the cost of attendance has more than doubled, inflation adjusted[2].

For the claim in Figure 14 to hold any water, we should expect to see the student:instructor ratio drop by a factor of more than 2 since the 70's.

This simply did not happen[3]. The FTE student-instructor ratio, on the average, stayed at about 16-17.

Therefore, the Figure 14 that the book[0] includes without references to sources, can't be right.

The data I cited suggests that the tuition costs would be half of what they are today if they were tied to instructors' salaries. However, the costs have more than doubled.

(Everyone who would like to dispute this is welcome to dig into the statistics).

[0] https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/helland-tabarrok_why-a...

[1]https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d10/tables/dt10_267.asp

[2]https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d07/tables/dt07_320.asp

[3] https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2012/2012001.pdf - page 377

[4] Inflation calculator: https://www.officialdata.org/1976-dollars-in-2006?amount=924

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#48
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also a free and fair option, just let people go bancrupt on their student loans. We've already seen politicians bailing out loans to help their reach friends, but saying it's all for the people. Don't let history repeat itself

The problem with allowing people to BK their student loans is that it creates a perverse incentive. If you BK over a car, it gets repossessed. But nobody can take your education back. A BK at 22-23 years of age is not a strong deterrent; you'll still be able to buy a house in your early 30s, which is when a lot of people plan to do that anyways. You can make loans dischargeable, but doing so will drastically change w…

Why could theoretically repossess the certification though. That is make it illegal to report you have a degree you bk’d on and make the colleges respond negatively when asked about your credentials.

I suspect that leads to outcomes that are uncomfortable for universities though.

Re: The Long Road to the Student Debt Crisis

#49
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't much of a student loan market. The overwhelming majority of student loans are made by the government with no underwriting and the rates set arbitrarily.

The market is on the other end. Loans are constantly resold after being issued, which is why people regularly get new student loan processors.

Loans are not resold. They stay in the government’s books. The loan processors are just contracted to provide processing services.

https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/repay-loans/understand/servicer...

> In some cases, ED needs to transfer loans from one servicer to another servicer on the federal loan servicer team. ED transfers loans as part of its efforts to ensure that all borrowers are provided with customer service and repayment support. If ED needs to transfer your federal student loans from your assigned servicer to another servicer, your loans will still be owned by ED. The “transfer” to another servicer on ED’s federal loan servicer team simply means that a new servicer will provide the support you need to fully repay your loans.

Post reply on HN