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Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

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Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#61

The linked article (edit: it has been changed) is rather confusing so I'd like to highlight the fact that the underlying study[1] hints at two very specific observations: 1) The effectiveness started to decrease after 18 months: the population of Ae. aegypti progressively returned back to its normal levels—and this despite the continued release every week of 450 thousand males of the modified strain. 2) Some hybrid o…

More generally, and IMO the most important point: an assumption was made that the modified animals would not be able to reproduce. This turns out not to be the case, and therefore the genetic modifications made are now in the wild.

In this case, as far as I can tell, there's little cause for alarm. But with a different alteration, things might be worse, and one wonders about the robustness of the decision making process at play here.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#62
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the problem. A lot of people thought that saying "This won't work and could make things potentially worse" was equivalent to "I think people should die of Malaria". I remember this experiment coming out on HN (different account) and voiced that it's would more than likely not work and if we're lucky, won't have an adverse affect. I got ripped as a flat out racist because I wanted black people to die of malaria…

The problem with those arguments is that no potential harm through such genetic modifications has been demonstrated yet. Even those mosquitoes surviving has done no harm. A downside to Hormones is that you need to find the breeding grounds. Potentially every puddle or container of water. However, the modified male mosquitoes are like homing missiles.

Ah yes, because over the course of humanity the "no harm demonstrated yet" has panned out beautifully. We're compounding interest on our "Well it seems fine for now?" damages.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#63
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the problem. A lot of people thought that saying "This won't work and could make things potentially worse" was equivalent to "I think people should die of Malaria". I remember this experiment coming out on HN (different account) and voiced that it's would more than likely not work and if we're lucky, won't have an adverse affect. I got ripped as a flat out racist because I wanted black people to die of malaria…

The problem with those arguments is that no potential harm through such genetic modifications has been demonstrated yet. Even those mosquitoes surviving has done no harm. A downside to Hormones is that you need to find the breeding grounds. Potentially every puddle or container of water. However, the modified male mosquitoes are like homing missiles.

And again, just like the others in the past who I argued with, you read nothing I put down. You saw hormone and knee jerked.

The hormones in question are not found in other animals, and has been widely tested for a decade prior to field use in Florida. Working off my memory from diving into this a few years ago, the hormones are what regulate the dissolve rate of the shell pupa to adult stage. It's introduced at a seasonal time for the larva to be in bodies of water, after certain storms. The hormone they put in, stop the shell/casing from softening so the adult mosquito is essentially buried alive.

The reason why the gm wasn't going to work was the low affected rate of mosquitoes. In rainy areas, the breeding cycle and amount is high enough so about a few months later, they're either resistant due to evolution or the affected pools were just absolutely meaningless to begin with. Let's add in, Ae. aegypti eggs, and most aedes, for example, are recorded to survive 8-14 months dry and hatch around a week after first moisture. The whole "experiment" was already a complete waste of time from day 1. The mosquito is a resistant SOB survivor to begin with. These "homing missiles", which failed, equates to using a single shot pellet rifle against a swarm of yellow jackets. Aedes is not a genus to take lightly. And actual field scientists who deal with it on a serious basis and do actual real useful work, know that. The breeding grounds are typical too. It's only after heavy storms where people have buckets out are real problems. And new developments that displace land. But they're normally figured out in a few months and thrown on the list.

My fear with gm in anything in the animalia kingdom comes to what genes become expressed more with the lack of expression in another. Especially over time if the sterilization factor didn't pane out as well as hoped. A 0.01% fail rate in sterilization to a creature like Ae. Aegypti (150-300 egg lay rate, 2-3 lay cycles, 10 day egg to adult) can be disastrous. Look, if the prior articles about the research went "We have evidence that it works, but we're afraid of unexpected fallout, thus we're testing for any potential adverse effects..." I'm chill with that. I want to see that succeed. They understand the risks and work to minimize those risks as best as possible. Cool. But every god damn time I see gene manipulators do anything with a wide scale insect like mosquitoes, they just Silicon Valley rush into it "Yea, we did it for 2 months and it works and we're going to release it into the wild". Like a Cali group wanted to do a few months ago, I want to scream. It's Mao's dumbass 4 pest crusade all fucking over again. Without a shred of thought into such a complex system that is the environment. Yea, break things fast. Who cares about consequences. Not like we have enough environmental fucking problems as is. Let's play Life on Earth on hardcore mode some more.

But oh no, a program that was in lab research for a decade before actual use. University oversight and testing to make sure only minimal amounts are used so any type of kickback can be contained quickly. And after 2 decades of use. That bad. Real bad. We should do shitty testing for a few months and consider it golden. Let's not forget, there's a group of assholes doing the same by genetically modifying a fungus to produce a type of venom to kill mosquitoes. I'd laugh at that stupid idea if it was left to hollywood. But there's a research group literally trying to do that, and they're having some initial success.

I am just absolutely sick and tired of people thinking 2+2+I want to save the world=22. And that's all I see in this garbage. While these red herring dumbass ideas have large sums of money thrown at them, people ARE FUCKING DYING because of this instead of that money going into either using proven methods or policies to minimize breeding rates or even just medical aid. I'm all for finding new ways. I wouldn't visit a tech news aggregate if I wasn't. But "new" doesn't automatically mean it's better. Without that respect to reality, it's doomed to fail.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#64
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the problem. A lot of people thought that saying "This won't work and could make things potentially worse" was equivalent to "I think people should die of Malaria". I remember this experiment coming out on HN (different account) and voiced that it's would more than likely not work and if we're lucky, won't have an adverse affect. I got ripped as a flat out racist because I wanted black people to die of malaria…

The problem with those arguments is that no potential harm through such genetic modifications has been demonstrated yet. Even those mosquitoes surviving has done no harm. A downside to Hormones is that you need to find the breeding grounds. Potentially every puddle or container of water. However, the modified male mosquitoes are like homing missiles.

The problem with waiting until harm is demonstrated is that we don't know what form it might take. Given the current free-for-all of genetic experimentation, it's only a matter of time until something we do has a significant unintended effect on an ecosystem. Unlike DDT, we won't necessarily be able to just stop the intervention and wait for things to go back to the way they were.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#65
post #15

Despite this failure, I still think the species should be targeted for extinction. What are our options?

As mentioned, we can spread dragonflies, a beneficial insect that eats many mosquitoes a day both in larval form and in the air. Dragonflies are also an important prey item for birds and bats, both of which have decreased in numbers in recent years and would benefit from more food sources. We can restore some of our wetlands, where dragonflies breed, and try to eliminate standing water in urban areas as much as possi…

Dragonflies are not picky predators. Their larvae are essentially miniature murder machines that happily devour fish and amphibians along with other insects until they undergo metamorphosis, and they continue the process as adults. I would be very wary about introducing them anywhere they didn't already exist.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#66
post #39

« However, it was already known from previous laboratory experiments that a small proportion of about three to four percent of OX513A descendants can reach adulthood; the scientists had assumed that those would be too weak to reproduce. » Ugh! This release should never have passed review.

Exactly, it boggles my mind that this passed review.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#67

The linked article (edit: it has been changed) is rather confusing so I'd like to highlight the fact that the underlying study[1] hints at two very specific observations: 1) The effectiveness started to decrease after 18 months: the population of Ae. aegypti progressively returned back to its normal levels—and this despite the continued release every week of 450 thousand males of the modified strain. 2) Some hybrid o…

> The most likely explanation however is that since they are weaker, they'll be progressively selected out and disappear.

Somewhere else I read the modified ones passing on their weakness is considered a feature and not a bug.

But 18 months is a whole lot of generations of mosquitoes, shouldn't it have disappeared already by now?

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#68
post #15

Despite this failure, I still think the species should be targeted for extinction. What are our options?

And presumably all the birds will have plenty of other things to eat, right?

There is no species of bird for which mosquitos are particularly important to their diet.

Even if the number of certain birds or bats were somewhat reduced, I'd accept that tradeoff.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#69
post #44
post #35

I keep hearing that mosquitoes are not ecologically important, and their extinction would have little to no ecological effect. However one indirect ecological consequence if something like this worked would be the migration of mammals to regions previously largely uninhabitable due to mosquitoes. Would such a migration and/or population increase have some ecological effect? I don't think anyone has explored this pote…

Are there any such regions to begin with? If they were uninhabitable, mosquitoes themselves would be absent, given that they require a blood supply.

they mean uninhabitable (or not usually inhabited) by certain species (though other species do live there) which might then chose to live there in the absence of the mosquitoes

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#70
post #15

Despite this failure, I still think the species should be targeted for extinction. What are our options?

Do this again, but this time with a better selection of genes? The outcome isn't a refutation of the approach, only of the particular gene drive. No reason why we can't do better next time.
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