Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil • Hacker News Board

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#51

Post by bayesian_horse » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:33 PM UTC

JackFr wrote: post #27

At a macro level, one would expect that the 'baseline' mosquito population represents an equilibrium level due to competing factors within in the local environment. While it seems very clear that releasing the GM mosquitos would never permanently alter this equilibrium, it's not obvious to me (not a biologist) that it would even work with continuing release of the GM mosquitos. It seems to assume that the limiting fa…

As far as I know they only release males, so the males will inevitably impregnate a certain number of normal females, which will have weaker offspring.

So no, it's not a permanent fix, because the survivors will repopulate the ecosystem over time. But there was a significant collapse of the population for a time. And that's a win, in terms of Malaria prevention.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#52

Post by bayesian_horse » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:35 PM UTC

cameronbrown wrote: post #2

Enough people said this was a bad idea to expect this outcome.

There is no evidence of harm yet. There are only a few mosquitoes with a bit more junk-DNA.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#53

Post by bayesian_horse » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:39 PM UTC

corodra wrote: post #36

magashna wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a thread the other day with outright anger that we should be doing anything to curb Malaria, including these kind of tests.

That's the problem. A lot of people thought that saying "This won't work and could make things potentially worse" was equivalent to "I think people should die of Malaria". I remember this experiment coming out on HN (different account) and voiced that it's would more than likely not work and if we're lucky, won't have an adverse affect. I got ripped as a flat out racist because I wanted black people to die of malaria…

The problem with those arguments is that no potential harm through such genetic modifications has been demonstrated yet.

Even those mosquitoes surviving has done no harm.

A downside to Hormones is that you need to find the breeding grounds. Potentially every puddle or container of water. However, the modified male mosquitoes are like homing missiles.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#54

Post by fnordsensei » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:40 PM UTC

Radiolab did an episode on this effort a while back: https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/kill-em-all

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#55

Post by bayesian_horse » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:43 PM UTC

human20190310 wrote: post #33

cameronbrown wrote: post #2

Enough people said this was a bad idea to expect this outcome.

Concern about "unknown unknowns" tends to be characterized as unscientific.

There should be a difference, but there rarely is.

There is broad search going on for potential mechanisms with which such modifications could cause harm. None have been found. At some point it is time for limited experiments in the wild. We now have evidence that the "fail-safes" don't work as intended. Maybe you need to have multiple such genes.

It's a different situation with nuclear energy, with multiple theoretically impossible accidents. You could categorize those as unknown unknowns, but, I mean, they have been known to happen...

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#56

Post by bencollier49 » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:47 PM UTC

ianai wrote: post #15

Despite this failure, I still think the species should be targeted for extinction. What are our options?

And presumably all the birds will have plenty of other things to eat, right?

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#57

Post by bencollier49 » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:48 PM UTC

bayesian_horse wrote: post #51

JackFr wrote: post #27

At a macro level, one would expect that the 'baseline' mosquito population represents an equilibrium level due to competing factors within in the local environment. While it seems very clear that releasing the GM mosquitos would never permanently alter this equilibrium, it's not obvious to me (not a biologist) that it would even work with continuing release of the GM mosquitos. It seems to assume that the limiting fa…

As far as I know they only release males, so the males will inevitably impregnate a certain number of normal females, which will have weaker offspring. So no, it's not a permanent fix, because the survivors will repopulate the ecosystem over time. But there was a significant collapse of the population for a time. And that's a win, in terms of Malaria prevention.

And a loss, for all their predators?

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#58

Post by bayesian_horse » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:53 PM UTC

bencollier49 wrote: post #57

bayesian_horse wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I know they only release males, so the males will inevitably impregnate a certain number of normal females, which will have weaker offspring. So no, it's not a permanent fix, because the survivors will repopulate the ecosystem over time. But there was a significant collapse of the population for a time. And that's a win, in terms of Malaria prevention.

And a loss, for all their predators?

They can cope.

There is nothing natural about any population size in the mosquitoes we are concerned about. They don't procreate in natural ponds, most of the times, but in whatever bodies of water the Humans provided them through one way or another.

And even then, those populations boom and bust all the time, without further intervention. We'd just rather like them to go more bust than boom, in general.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#59

Post by blisterpeanuts » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:56 PM UTC

ianai wrote: post #15

Despite this failure, I still think the species should be targeted for extinction. What are our options?

As mentioned, we can spread dragonflies, a beneficial insect that eats many mosquitoes a day both in larval form and in the air.

Dragonflies are also an important prey item for birds and bats, both of which have decreased in numbers in recent years and would benefit from more food sources.

We can restore some of our wetlands, where dragonflies breed, and try to eliminate standing water in urban areas as much as possible -- old tires, ditches, etc. Mosquitoes love wetlands too, but in a properly balanced system, their populations would be controlled by fish, dragonflies, and amphibians.

We should also continue research into gene drives and similar efforts to reproductively target a species for extinction.

At the same time, we should be careful not to damage the thousands of non-biting mosquitoes which are valuable pollinators. About 5000 known species exist of which only about 100 feed on blood, and about 9 of those blood sucking species carry deadly diseases. If we target just the blood sucking species while not affecting the others, the effects on the ecosystem should be minimal.

Mosquitoes are a remarkably effective and robust creature, dating back 100 million years, and existing in nearly every part of the world. They bring great misery to many species of animals and their extinction will not be mourned.

Re: Genetically modified mosquitoes breed in Brazil

#60

Post by blisterpeanuts » Sat, Sep 14, 2019, 6:59 PM UTC

markbnj wrote: post #21

I really didn't get this idea when it was first proposed, and I still don't. I'm about as far from an expert as you can get, but it seems to me that if you modify the genes of a wild population such that they produce less viable offspring you've just reduced their evolutionary fitness. That would leave a gap to be exploited by the members of the species whose genes you did not modify. On the surface anyway it seems l…

I remember Oxitec or a related entity mentioning at the time that it was not a permanent solution, but would need to be repeated every year to re-suppress the population.