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Day Trading for a Living?

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361–370 of 377 posts

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't you need a basis for believing that day trading Brazilian futures has unique properties not present in other markets to assert this? E.g. the volatility or spread is significantly larger than European futures or the information flow is more tightly de/regulated etc. Is there a basis for believing this?

Yeah what you are doing is nowadays known as the "Trump approach".

Asking what the basis is for disbelieving a scientific study with a statistically significant sample size cannot reasonably be described as analogous to anything Donald Trump does.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#363
post #345

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In my entire life, as far as I know I've only ever met one person who played the stock market manually and did well at it. It was almost a hobby for him. He enjoyed analysing individual businesses very carefully, and would look for clearly financially sensible opportunities that were effective at relatively small scales but overlooked by the big players. A favourite type of investment that came up now and then would…

This is warren buffet style value investing. "Day Trading" is actively taking positions with the intent to sell in the "short-term".

Yes, exactly. My point was just that anecdotally, literally no-one I know who has attempted "day trading" style investing has made good money from it over the long term. In contrast, the one person I know who has attempted "value" style investing and done it seriously actually has made quite good money from it consistently. This is in line with the article's conclusions, but in another context: it looks like an individual trying to day-trade in today's markets is probably setting up to fail.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#364
post #302
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know nothing of Medallion, but I'm curious if only private insiders can invest, how do you know they're not just lying about how much they return?

It allows family and former employees, so it is actually A LOT of people. Kind of hard to keep a conspiracy with 100+ people for 30+ years. Why would all these people lie?

All the family, employees, and former employees have a maximum investment. Every year they withdraw funds so that the principle never exceeds a certain threshold.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That belief seems like it would be obviously justified. The same would be true for pretty much any geographically restricted set of day traders on a specific exchange tied to the geography, likely even for huge exchanges. There are huge effects from correlation with that country’s equity markets, currency policy, political events, etc. to such a degree that it would be unreasonable to assume they aren’t present until…

There is a distinction between structural confounders and the variables which you are literally backing yourself to predict when you're a day trader. You've mentioned two in the same sentence which I would consider to be polar opposites: political events and currency policy. For example if market data operated on a significant lag in Brazil for amateur investors, but didn't in the UK, this would represent a structura…

You are making a large misunderstanding. The confounders are not about what the day traders themselves are using in their own models. The confounders are things that affect researchers studying whole cohorts of traders.

Day traders may well believe they can predict political events in Brazil effectively. And yet, there may be some quality about Brazilian political events that impacts the cohort of Brazilian day traders systematically differently than say Korean political events affect Korean day traders.

For example, maybe a new cabinet member was just appointed in Brazil who likes to leak new political announcements early to an old business partner with connections at several large banks and trading shops, and so regular day traders are at a significant disadvantage in just this one market.

Or maybe during the time period of the study, there were political protests that disproportionately involved young people, meaning the average age (and perhaps skill level) of the observed cohort of traders was artificially too high just in the window of time of the study. Or any number of possible things like this.

You can’t assume these effects don’t exist when looking at different cohorts that have real reasons why they might not be probabilistically equivalent to a more general population. You have to actually account for the possible sources of confounding (in this case the country of the exchange), either by proposing some prior counterfactual model, or by collecting data across different cohorts and explicitly controlling for the confounder with whatever type of model you are fitting.

To be clear: none of this requires you to know in advance what the confounders actually are, and indeed in most causal inference models you literally cannot know what they are. The best you can hope is that you measures things like, e.g. country of exchange or age of the traders, that correlates with the hidden confounders well enough that they allow you to control for the confounding effects in your model.

It is not a thing in professional statistics to expect researchers to already know the sources of confounding before postulating that there could be sources of confounding that need to be controlled prior to believing the results are generalizeable.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with LTCM wasn't just that they didn't test sufficiently - the problem is that traders could take positions without supervision and any accountability. My understanding is that any firms that survived that period (and I believe they were all pulling the same shenanigans as LTCM, just maybe to a lesser degree) now have risk management because unlike Lehman/Bear they can't just foist that risk off onto the pu…

As I remember the book, they back tested quite a lot. It's just that whenever they went live with trading reality changed on 'em. Go figure.

One thing backtesting misses is the other market participants may see what you are up to in live trading and try to take advantage. That was a big factor with LTCM.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#367
post #328
post #207

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There was a video interview with the founder where he explained pretty much how they do it. The employ a lot of bright PhD maths/physics types, get them to come up with all the algorithmic strategies they can think of, run tests with historic data and live trading to see which ones work and then scale up those. There isn't one smart guy or one great strategy - there are dozens of smart guys and loads of strategies an…

No mention of leverage?

I'd take leverage for granted but it only works if the underlying bet you are leveraging is in your favour.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#368
post #241

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To improve this, the broker can throw out the best performing clients, since they might genuinely know what they’re doing. This practice is pervasive in sports betting. It's a common practice to ban winners, especially in the US and UK. https://augur.net is an Ethereum-based betting market that will help traders/bettors avoid these kinds of malicious practices. Augur v2 is being developed now, you can expect it to be…

Betting could very well be the killer feature for Ethereum.

I worked on a Bitcoin sports betting site. Been there, done that.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#369
post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> their outsized gains are due to market manipulation, front running, or other insider activities (as in, illegal/unfair). as a former insider at a different, less successful-than-rentec-but-still-successful firm, I doubt it. They have better data, technology, and employees than most other market participants. So then the question is how did they get there: > No one is smart enough; no algorithm or model is future-pr…

Question since you are informed about them and the space... I had read this[1] and seen some other things about his activities. Since Mercer and his family seem deeply wrapped up in something that has some worrying ties to hostile foreign nations, a company who has been recorded saying they've done REALLY shady things along those lines, etc... How feasible is it that RenTech used similar technology and god knows what…

It is feasible, although I would be surprised if it something like this were at play. For one thing the other CEO Brown and Simons himself are on the opposite side of the political spectrum. That's not any guarantee but my point is that these organizations aren't monolithic...if there were geopolitical impacts hopefully someone would leak. But even if rentech were completely amoral, they probably still wouldn't do it just because the risk/reward asymmetry is too great. Sounds like it'd fall more to the FBI than SEC; much higher penalties. Too much of the rest of the business is profitable. These people have a lot to lose. And when hedge funds engage in bad behavior, it tends to look more like this [1]. Perfectly legal, yet still harming society, in my (less informed) opinion.

What keeps me up at night is not rentech but state actors, like you said, hostile foreign nations. They have the resources to pull it off and plenty of motivation...trading profits would just be icing on the cake, really.

Here's an amateur-level manipulation example you may find interesting [2]. Could rentech do this more subtly with 10x impact? Like I was saying, it may be feasible...still kinda doubt it. If this happens my guess it would be a fund that was no longer profitable, on it's way out, they have nothing left to lose, all this computing power laying around...

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-27/windst...

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-21/german-so...

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#370
post #199

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You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. RenTec is the most profitable money making machine the world has ever seen (and likely will see). RenTec’s Medallion fund has an annualized return for over 30 years in excess of 35% net of fees. I’m not sure what their management fee is, but their performance fee is like 45%. This means they are making like 80% returns YoY before fees. I suspect you don’t work in…

You can't just conjure a 45% ROI out of nothing. It either means inflation is incredibly high, productivity growth is incredibly high, there is some exotic "dark market" that most investors cannot access (probably made out of dark matter) or other people are losing a lot of money. Except inflation isn't high, productivity growth isn't high and I just made up the "dark market" so only one explanation remains.

Like they’re very very good at what they do? Simmons is a genius ans the people that work st RenTec are some of the best and brightest minds in the world.

Even so, I must admit, their profability and success is outstanding. But then again, so are Apple’s and Google’s. The only difference is thst no one knows how RenTec makes buttloads of money.

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