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Day Trading for a Living?

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Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#351

Post by HenryBemis »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #343
HenryBemis wrote: post #299

FX trader here. I do trade daily for the last 18 months, mostly algo, and it IS possible to make profit every single day. Just aim for 0.1% per day and you are set for life. You aim for the 0.1% of your capital, so when the market goes against you, you got enough margin to keep the account alive. Anton Kreil has a good video (I will add it later - walking now) that tells the tale how the markets are set up to rip you…

If you really believe that you can make a .1% return every day retail trading leveraged FX, you’re delusional. There’s just no other way to say it.

Feel free to call me what you want. One can make $1 out of $1000 per day easily. Waking up this morning I saw $1.57 profit per $1000. It is the greed that busts accounts.. I am not advertising anything. I am merely stating what is working for me and a couple of friends. Btw this is my side-gig. My main profession is related to financial services and IT which I have been serving (both) for the last 20 years, so I have an advantage when it comes to any kind of botting (algo trading).

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#352

Post by lamby »

Reminds me of:

> It's said that most at home traders fail, but this is incorrect: they fail at making money, but they are successful at feeling like a trader. That is the goal; the money is secondary, which is why they fail at making it.

  — The Last Psychiatrist, Who Can Know How Much Randi Zuckerberg Is Worth?(http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2014/03/who_can_know_how_much_randi_zu.html)

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#353

Post by Paradigma11 »

jacquesc wrote: post #87

I have a couple friends that do day trading on "technical analysis". As in, they only trade on the chart movements. Both claim to make money consistently. I generally believe them, but it seems like black magic to me. Especially when they explain what they're doing in detail. Not sure I understand this study tho, and whether or not it relates.

What i have seen this algos work mainly by having a high chance of winning a small payout and a very small chance of losing everything. So everything works fine for 1/2-1 year and ppl spread word of mouth how nice this steady income is. Meanwhile the owner of the algo/platform makes a nice commission. Then everything goes bust and starts anew somewhere else.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#354

Post by georgespencer »

mlthoughts2018 wrote: post #93
georgespencer wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't you need a basis for believing that day trading Brazilian futures has unique properties not present in other markets to assert this? E.g. the volatility or spread is significantly larger than European futures or the information flow is more tightly de/regulated etc. Is there a basis for believing this?

That belief seems like it would be obviously justified. The same would be true for pretty much any geographically restricted set of day traders on a specific exchange tied to the geography, likely even for huge exchanges. There are huge effects from correlation with that country’s equity markets, currency policy, political events, etc. to such a degree that it would be unreasonable to assume they aren’t present until…

There is a distinction between structural confounders and the variables which you are literally backing yourself to predict when you're a day trader. You've mentioned two in the same sentence which I would consider to be polar opposites: political events and currency policy.

For example if market data operated on a significant lag in Brazil for amateur investors, but didn't in the UK, this would represent a structural disadvantage which might make it impossible to beat the market except through dumb luck in Brazil.

It wouldn't mean it's definitely possible to beat the market in the UK, but it would be something one would want to control for in a study which makes a global prediction based on data from a sample in one nation.

However political events, as I understand you to mean, are one of the things most traders are specifically backing themselves to predict in a futures market.

So my question is: what's the basis for believing that there are structural impediments to retail day traders which are present in Brazil but not present in the rest of the world? Everyone in this thread is absolutely certain they exist, but nobody seems to be able to outline what disadvantages are present for a retail Brazilian futures trader which are not present in the UK outside of red herrings like "Brazil is less stable".

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#355

Post by imtringued »

Carpetsmoker wrote: post #196
dav1app wrote: post #117

They have a reason to make that article: there is a lot of companies fooling the Brazilian people over this. I'm a Brazilian software developer for the financial market. I also made some financial courses on the same university that the authors. Brazilian stock exchange market has exploded in the last years and most of my friends decided to 'work' as traders. None of them with prior knowledge or experience in the mar…

The best way to get rich in a gold rush is to sell shovels. Every time someone comes up with a "get rich with this training/tool/etc." it's very unlikely to make you rich, because if it would work that great then why isn't the seller of the training/tool using it to get rich, instead of selling whatever they're selling?

Bitcoin ASIC manufacturers are known to mine Bitcoin before selling their machines.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#356

Post by asdf333 »

wtvanhest wrote: post #29

If you take Jan 1, 2013 to Dec 31st, 2015, the Brazillian stock market did very, very poorly. That probably explains why it was nearly impossible since most traders are probably long, not short the market. So even taking 1 day positions in stocks, still on average over 3 years will experience signifigant downward price pressure. That said, the fact that the market is bad, is just randomness and shows one of the major…

agreed. i noticed that as well. however, it says started between 13-15 so theoretically some of those on the tail end could have been in a up market.

not only that but futures can be shorted too so i don't think its unfair to use "are they profitable" as the criteria in a down or sideways market.

i do wish they showed a breakdown of under vs overperformance relative to the bovespa during their trading period.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#357

Post by imtringued »

mruts wrote: post #199
Kranar wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Renaissance Technologies did not use algorithms to beat the market... they used tax schemes to do so: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/renaissan... When you factor in the money they saved from dodging taxes and how they managed to compound the growth on that money, their returns end up being no more impressive than any other hedge fund. Even if it turns out that what they did wasn't illegal, the bul…

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. RenTec is the most profitable money making machine the world has ever seen (and likely will see). RenTec’s Medallion fund has an annualized return for over 30 years in excess of 35% net of fees. I’m not sure what their management fee is, but their performance fee is like 45%. This means they are making like 80% returns YoY before fees. I suspect you don’t work in…

You can't just conjure a 45% ROI out of nothing.

It either means inflation is incredibly high, productivity growth is incredibly high, there is some exotic "dark market" that most investors cannot access (probably made out of dark matter) or other people are losing a lot of money.

Except inflation isn't high, productivity growth isn't high and I just made up the "dark market" so only one explanation remains.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#358

Post by imtringued »

tcbawo wrote: post #309
esmi wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know nothing of Medallion, but I'm curious if only private insiders can invest, how do you know they're not just lying about how much they return?

Such returns would not be possible if they grew to a certain size. By closing the fund, they can keep it small enough to limit scaling issues.

That's illogical because people don't get paid in ROI. They get paid in absolute dollars. Earning a 30% ROI on 200 billion dollars is better than earning a 30% ROI on 100 billion dollars.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#359

Post by IAmGraydon »

HenryBemis wrote: post #351
IAmGraydon wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you really believe that you can make a .1% return every day retail trading leveraged FX, you’re delusional. There’s just no other way to say it.

Feel free to call me what you want. One can make $1 out of $1000 per day easily. Waking up this morning I saw $1.57 profit per $1000. It is the greed that busts accounts.. I am not advertising anything. I am merely stating what is working for me and a couple of friends. Btw this is my side-gig. My main profession is related to financial services and IT which I have been serving (both) for the last 20 years, so I have…

No, you can’t do that day after day for any extended period of time. You certainly can’t with algo trading. The spread alone would cost you more than .1%, so you would have to make more than that just to be profitable. In 18 months of trading, what net return have you made?

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#360

Post by tcbawo »

imtringued wrote: post #358
tcbawo wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such returns would not be possible if they grew to a certain size. By closing the fund, they can keep it small enough to limit scaling issues.

That's illogical because people don't get paid in ROI. They get paid in absolute dollars. Earning a 30% ROI on 200 billion dollars is better than earning a 30% ROI on 100 billion dollars.

My point is that once a fund grows to a certain size, ROI at that scale becomes impossible. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that some of their funds have investment restrictions and mandatory distributions.
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