71–80 of 377 posts
Seems like an institution with dedicated employees performing due diligence will know much more than an individual day trader, and thus will be able to make better decision about when to buy and sell?
Anyway, my bias has always been that day trading is really gambling.
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I know people who made millions day trading commodities, for no one in that cohort to have made any real money over two years is surprising to the point of disbelief. This may be something particular to the Brazilian exchange.
I’ve noticed a lot of successful traders trade commodities versus equities. What makes commodities easier to trade? Ed Seykota has been doing it for decades: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Seykota
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Because it would represent an extremely narrow slice of traders. It's possible traders of these equities find it quite hard to make a living but a larger number of other day traders do just fine. Also it says "impossible" but the article actually shows it's difficult and rare.
The paper's claim is "virtually impossible". The post's title is click bait.
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> which is about ~110k a year $310 * 5 days a week * 52 weeks a year = $80,600
110k pre tax in the USA is 80k post tax per year-- it is often helpful for us to think in terms of both numbers when comparing money making methods. That's my guess at least.
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The abstract of the paper seems to suggest otherwise: We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and persisted for at least 300 days: 97% of them lost money, only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 per day), and the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk (a standard deviation of U…
But what should we compare those odds, how are we supposed to interpret this? Imagine we tracked a group of 1000 randomly picked individuals who wanted to be a brain surgeon. I don't know for sure but I wouldn't be surprised if of 1000 randomly chosen people, only 3 people managed to succeed at it after 4 years. But no one would ever say "Study shows it's impossible for an individual to become a brain surgeon." or im…
Also your final paragraph seems to imply a causal relationship between how hard you work and remuneration. Hard work doesn't hurt, but luck is very important.
Mandatory reading for anyone considering trading stocks: http://edmarkovich.blogspot.com/2013/12/why-i-dont-trade-sto... TLDR: just invest in an index fund.
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We were taught explicitly in my (highly-ranked US) business school that stock performance is a random walk and success is luck.
This is an interesting concept to be teaching business school students. Doesn't this amount to telling you your education is useless?
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The abstract of the paper seems to suggest otherwise: We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and persisted for at least 300 days: 97% of them lost money, only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 per day), and the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk (a standard deviation of U…
But what should we compare those odds, how are we supposed to interpret this? Imagine we tracked a group of 1000 randomly picked individuals who wanted to be a brain surgeon. I don't know for sure but I wouldn't be surprised if of 1000 randomly chosen people, only 3 people managed to succeed at it after 4 years. But no one would ever say "Study shows it's impossible for an individual to become a brain surgeon." or im…
Some group of people are guaranteed to become brain surgeons.. the demand is there, the training is there, so it is a near certainty. In fact in the US at least, you can know very closely how many brain surgeons there can be per year. Who will fill those slots isn’t too kind to all takers. It is dedication, hard work, and luck (ie ovarian lottery).
Also the majority of those that “fail” at obtaining a neurosurgery training. If they were on the path to medical training will end up falling back to any number of high paying jobs in medicine or surgery.
This study found no one did terribly well at day trading. Random chance implies there will be some outlying outcomes, but that is a fundamentally different objective than having too many people for few slots.
It doesn’t seem like a large percentage of comments are saying “this is false, because I make a living day trading!”
Instead most of the comments say something like “this story is untrue because I know someone who makes a living day trading”
Knowing someone != being someone