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Day Trading for a Living?

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21–30 of 377 posts

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#21
post #15

I mean you may as well say: Study shows it is impossible for an individual to build a tech start up as a living. Just because something is hard doesn't mean it's impossible. Day trading, like many other risky ventures, is something that is very hard and unlikely but for the few who succeed ends up being very profitable.

A better way to put it is that day-trading is like gambling. You always lose money in the long run, even if you have spurts of success.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#22

Impossible? Lol I have a handful of friends that do this. It's hard work but they make 5 to 6 figures consistently per year. It's very very hard, and not everyone can do it. I tried and lost a lot of money. But it's definitely not impossible, that is simply a lie.

Your friends are probably lying to you or themselves (or both) about the making money part. It's typical for gamblers to overstate their winnings and understate their losses in the long-haul to somehow convince themselves they're ahead when they're actually behind.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#23
post #15

I mean you may as well say: Study shows it is impossible for an individual to build a tech start up as a living. Just because something is hard doesn't mean it's impossible. Day trading, like many other risky ventures, is something that is very hard and unlikely but for the few who succeed ends up being very profitable.

Playing the lottery is also very profitable for those who succeed.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#24
post #16

Impossible? Lol I have a handful of friends that do this. It's hard work but they make 5 to 6 figures consistently per year. It's very very hard, and not everyone can do it. I tried and lost a lot of money. But it's definitely not impossible, that is simply a lie.

All things considered, "5 figures" seems like a pretty low income for something that is "very very hard", and risky. Seems like if you have the skills and tenacity to day trade like that you could find some other job to pay you high 5 figures with a more stability.

$20,000 per year is livable in many areas of the US, especially if you have a lot of savings to back that up. The point is that saying it's "impossible" is a lie.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#25
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The abstract, of course, contains more detail than the headline regarding exactly what is claimed: > We show that it is virtually impossible for an individual to day trade for a living, contrary to what course providers claim. We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and persisted for at least 300 days: 9…

The interesting bit to me is, “we find no evidence of learning by day trading”. This implies to me that the top earners are merely lucky, and have no special knowledge or advantages.

We were taught explicitly in my (highly-ranked US) business school that stock performance is a random walk and success is luck.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#26
post #15

I mean you may as well say: Study shows it is impossible for an individual to build a tech start up as a living. Just because something is hard doesn't mean it's impossible. Day trading, like many other risky ventures, is something that is very hard and unlikely but for the few who succeed ends up being very profitable.

> Day trading, like many other risky ventures, is something that is very hard and unlikely but for the few who succeed ends up being very profitable.

> the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk (a standard deviation of US$2,560).

The very best day trader made around the same as an entry-level SWE, which does not scream immense profit to me.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#28

Impossible? Lol I have a handful of friends that do this. It's hard work but they make 5 to 6 figures consistently per year. It's very very hard, and not everyone can do it. I tried and lost a lot of money. But it's definitely not impossible, that is simply a lie.

Your particular logical fallacy is "cherry picking".

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#29
If you take Jan 1, 2013 to Dec 31st, 2015, the Brazillian stock market did very, very poorly. That probably explains why it was nearly impossible since most traders are probably long, not short the market. So even taking 1 day positions in stocks, still on average over 3 years will experience signifigant downward price pressure.

That said, the fact that the market is bad, is just randomness and shows one of the major difficulties with relying on investment income to support your life. Sometimes stuff just sucks, for very long periods of time. Meanwhile you must pay your bills.

That doesn't even get in to whether or not these people dramatically underperformed the market. They very likely did, but I also bet some of them outperformed based on luck or skill.

Stock market investing is something everyone should try at somepoint in small doses just to understand how difficult it is. Its probably the hardest way to make money in the world and even the best investors usually have a bad few years which ends their careers.

Re: Day Trading for a Living?

#30
post #15

I mean you may as well say: Study shows it is impossible for an individual to build a tech start up as a living. Just because something is hard doesn't mean it's impossible. Day trading, like many other risky ventures, is something that is very hard and unlikely but for the few who succeed ends up being very profitable.

The abstract of the paper seems to suggest otherwise: We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and persisted for at least 300 days: 97% of them lost money, only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 per day), and the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk (a standard deviation of US$2,560).

My interpretation of this, is that those they tracked in this study, it's not even all that profitable for the few that beat the odds while being exposed to significant risk.

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