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Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

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81–90 of 204 posts

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the future arrives, lots of people will be amazed at how little of the solution to this "issue" ended up being storage as such and how much turned out to be demand management and reasonable system architecture.

When the future arrives, we will build enough nuclear reactors.

Hopefully before China eats our lunch.

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#83

There are at least 5 better alternatives to wind and solar, but we don't teach science any more in public schools. If we did, there wouldn't even BE climate change alarmist hysteria poised to destroy entire economies.

Are you talking about natural gas? I can think of a couple of other renewable resources: Geothermal and Hydroelectric, but Geothermal is geographically limited and Hydroelectric has proven to have more environmental impact than we would like. I have no idea on what the other three could be. I guess you could include Nuclear in the list, but the price points on that make it hard to declare it better than Solar and Win…

What are the severe environmental impacts of hydro?

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#84
post #19

My understanding (which is probably uninformed at best) has been that coal, nuclear, etc are used to cover base load, and basically work best when up and running at 100% all the time. Natural gas has the advantage that it can be spun up and down pretty quickly, which has meant that it is used primarily for "peak" load, which I think used to be covered a lot of the time by things such as diesel and oil plants and have…

That's exactly what the market is doing, right now. The more wind/solar we get, the cheaper and more robust they are. And when they start costing a lot less than coal/nuclear (which is where we are now), then coal and nuclear basically collapse under their own cost - which is what is happening.

The fact that gas saw a big cost cut around the same time is just accelerating the inevitable. But getting off carbon will require that wind/solar become significantly cheaper than gas as well as coal/nuclear. Which may be what happens over the next couple of decades.

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#85
post #2

I hope this is a solid study and not just wishful thinking. I've been looking at pricing, and right now, fracked gas plants are running around $40/mwh, with wind at under $50/mwh and PV solar (no battery storage) at around $60/mwh. Coal and traditional nuclear are running around $100/mwh (these are all rounded numbers from memory, don't get unhelpfully pedantic!). These numbers are obliterating both coal and nuclear.…

Don't get fooled by simple price comparison. It's comparing apples and oranges. Gas, nuclear, coal, reversible dams, geothermy... are all controllable energy sources: they produce when we need it. Wind and solar are intermittent.

Equip fully the world with solar and wind and the trains will have to leave their stations when the wind blows and not at any other moment.

What's happening is that countries migrating towards wind turbines like Germany also adds coal plant to the same capacity in order to compensate for when the wind doesn't blow. For each GW of wind one can find a GW of coal or gas being installed.

Then, if we are talking about adding batteries into the mix to make it work, solar and wind become far from carbon neutral, and endangers us way more than nuclear.

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#86
post #10

Sorry to thread jack, but- important question: how are people reading Bloomberg now that they shut down incognito mode as of this week? Disabling Javascript doesn't seem to work either. I'm using Outline for the time being, but it's slow and annoying, and it won't load any longforms that contain multiple pictures or graphs. Anyone else have a better solution?

Firefox temporary containers are pretty good -- https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/temporary-con...

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you talking about natural gas? I can think of a couple of other renewable resources: Geothermal and Hydroelectric, but Geothermal is geographically limited and Hydroelectric has proven to have more environmental impact than we would like. I have no idea on what the other three could be. I guess you could include Nuclear in the list, but the price points on that make it hard to declare it better than Solar and Win…

What are the severe environmental impacts of hydro?

Flooding, especially when building hydro in flat areas.

Earthquakes -- there is some causality

Destruction of fish habitat -- salmon in Columbia river

In general, making water go slow when it used to go fast has a lot more negative consequence for the environment than one might expect.

I find this episode of 99 percent invisible to be really informative -- https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/fish-cannon/

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#88
post #8
post #2

I hope this is a solid study and not just wishful thinking. I've been looking at pricing, and right now, fracked gas plants are running around $40/mwh, with wind at under $50/mwh and PV solar (no battery storage) at around $60/mwh. Coal and traditional nuclear are running around $100/mwh (these are all rounded numbers from memory, don't get unhelpfully pedantic!). These numbers are obliterating both coal and nuclear.…

> and nuclear plants are shutting down a decade or more before official end-of-life, because they're losing major customers to cheaper alternatives that are available right now How? My understanding is that most of the cost of nuclear power comes from building the plant and decommissioning it. Running existing power plants for as long as they can seems like the most economical choice.

You are totally correct. US, France, Japan and UK all decided to extend the filetime of their nuclear power plants.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclearpower/u-s-to-e...

Wind is cheap because when the wind blows, everybody is trying to sell their wind produced energy at the same time and the country often overproduces. In Germany, we even see negative prices when the wind blows; The price is low not because it does not cost a lot, but because it is heavily subsidized (wind is 60% of subsidies in Germany, for only 18% of the production) and needs to sell fast otherwise the fines and costs for overloading the network are massive.

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#89
post #2

I hope this is a solid study and not just wishful thinking. I've been looking at pricing, and right now, fracked gas plants are running around $40/mwh, with wind at under $50/mwh and PV solar (no battery storage) at around $60/mwh. Coal and traditional nuclear are running around $100/mwh (these are all rounded numbers from memory, don't get unhelpfully pedantic!). These numbers are obliterating both coal and nuclear.…

Don't get fooled by simple price comparison. It's comparing apples and oranges. Gas, nuclear, coal, reversible dams, geothermy... are all controllable energy sources: they produce when we need it. Wind and solar are intermittent. Equip fully the world with solar and wind and the trains will have to leave their stations when the wind blows and not at any other moment. What's happening is that countries migrating towar…

I suspect that if variable electricity pricing for consumers, a great deal of the need for "batteries" will evaporate. Heavy consumer electric uses (charging the car, HVAC, hot water) can easily be time shifted. It isn't time shifted today because consumer electricity rates are constant 24/7.
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