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WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

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Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#71
post #37

It's remarkably easy to make fun of WeWork, given the company's high-as-a-kite ambitions, its largely conjectural business model, its dependence on fresh capital for survival, its charismatic CEO’s new-age antics, and its disregard for conventional norms of ethical corporate behavior.[a] But if the IPO of a company as prominent as WeWork fails and the company is unable to raise the fresh capital it needs to stay aflo…

> The last time we had such a shift, in 2000

Nah. This happened again in 2008.

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#72
post #58
post #4

It just seems like WeWork took an existing business model of renting office space, went all VC and gathered a bunch of money and sky high evaluation (toss in some creepy insider dealing) ... and ... that's it. I know there were some theories on cornering the market, or getting some sort of huge buy in / contracts with companies hiring remote workers but for the most part there's plenty of office space (at least in my…

IPO valuation aside -- it is premature to write the WeWork model off It could end up being a strong counter-cyclical model -- and outperforms as the economy tightens Traditional office space is a 2, 5, 10 year commitment and a pain to move things around -- with WeWork you're paying monthly and relocating geographically is simple CFOs will often look to pay more per month for shorter commitments which fit well with bu…

I don't think anyone's writing the model of "lease office space on flexible short term basis, including by the desk" off. But the many other companies doing it without free beer, self-dealing and Ponzi scheme approach to growth and valuations are probably better placed to weather recessions...

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#73
post #58
post #4

It just seems like WeWork took an existing business model of renting office space, went all VC and gathered a bunch of money and sky high evaluation (toss in some creepy insider dealing) ... and ... that's it. I know there were some theories on cornering the market, or getting some sort of huge buy in / contracts with companies hiring remote workers but for the most part there's plenty of office space (at least in my…

IPO valuation aside -- it is premature to write the WeWork model off It could end up being a strong counter-cyclical model -- and outperforms as the economy tightens Traditional office space is a 2, 5, 10 year commitment and a pain to move things around -- with WeWork you're paying monthly and relocating geographically is simple CFOs will often look to pay more per month for shorter commitments which fit well with bu…

The elasticity is nice, sure, but in a contraction wouldn't we see less startups needing office space overall?

If the economy is in the toilet it's hard to get funding to pay someone for office space to hold your startup that you can't fund.

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#74
post #37

It's remarkably easy to make fun of WeWork, given the company's high-as-a-kite ambitions, its largely conjectural business model, its dependence on fresh capital for survival, its charismatic CEO’s new-age antics, and its disregard for conventional norms of ethical corporate behavior.[a] But if the IPO of a company as prominent as WeWork fails and the company is unable to raise the fresh capital it needs to stay aflo…

I don't know, by the time you get to a series G, "show me the profits" is a fair demand that the capital markets should never not be making.

Your post seems to say "if you don't prop up WeWork, good luck raising money for your startup." I think it's a little disingenuous to project that guilt onto startups that are in reasonable early and growth stages. Every company has a viable plan for survival by that stage. And that plan is: show the market the profits.

WeWork coming back down to earth doesn't mean that suddenly we will see drastic tightening from seed-stage to growth-stage VC.

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#75
I have to say that I will be relieved if WeWork fails.

As a startup founder I think their practices are contrary to the interest of small companies looking to rent space.

They officially offer so called flexibility and hipster offices, but this is a disguise to package a lot of small/fragile companies into a big stable system they can sell to big real estate companies.

There is in practice very little value for the small companies, it's a costly gadget that can be useful in some specific cases, but companies like WeWork tend to eat all the available office space and inflate the prices.

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shouldn’t “show me the profit” have been the basis for investing all the time? It’s the growth at all cost that’s dangerous.

Agreed. Grow at all costs is what incubates the "fail fast" approach, which I, personally, disagree with. There's a reason why you need to spend most of your time designing and architecting and jump to implementation only when the viability of the solution has been justified. And part of this justification has to be a solid business model that has a clear road to profits. And a path to profit that's not decades away.…

Huh? If investors demand immediately profitability, wouldn't that push companies to "fail fast" even more? The point of failing fast is to spend as little time as possible working on the wrong ideas, i.e. to find 'market fit' as soon as possible.

Time spent designing and architecting isn't free either and, for a lot of people, 'implementing' is the only viable means of testing designs and architecture, and more importantly whether there are any (potential) customers.

An "exit through an acquisition" is a perfectly sensible goal if acquisitions are common or expected. It's pretty common in (some) other industries, e.g. pharmaceuticals.

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#77
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that initially they focused on a market that was underserved by tech (short-term real estate). That by itself is probably enough to get some initial funding. Then you show that you're actually executing, at least as far as being able to grow and manage a real business with real revenues, which can easily get you another round. From there they did two things. The first was to start to securitize the busine…

You pitch the business is a fully vertically-integrated lifestyle where people live, work and send their kids to school I can see how this would seem compelling to a 22-year-old Google employee of the sort that gave us Google Glass and Google Plus, but was there any research done that this was a thing that normal people would want?

If you make it attractive enough I can see people doing it. Use synergy/vertical integration/economies of scale to give people discounts and make their lives more convenient and they'll be willing to give up a lot in terms of things like privacy.

In my opinion the real risk would be the antitrust regulators.

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#78
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a good point, but I think you can get one-year bonds with an annual coupon: that means you get one payment a year from now. So bonds in general aren't IOUs, but there is at least one bond that works like one.

You are right that would be an example of a bond/bill with a 0% coupon rate. There are still weird negative interest rate conditions where it makes sense to buy an IOU for more than you get back (not that I understand those conditions :) )

I think the 'weird' conditions are some combination of there not being other 'riskless' (or less risky) investments and certain institutions being legally required to hold a certain number or amount of 'riskless' or highly-rated (according to the relevant regulators) instruments.

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#79
post #37

It's remarkably easy to make fun of WeWork, given the company's high-as-a-kite ambitions, its largely conjectural business model, its dependence on fresh capital for survival, its charismatic CEO’s new-age antics, and its disregard for conventional norms of ethical corporate behavior.[a] But if the IPO of a company as prominent as WeWork fails and the company is unable to raise the fresh capital it needs to stay aflo…

That is an interesting point, but I am not sure how big a factor that first paragraph is! I would think it is more against all the shenanigans of WeWork than the overall market forces.

Re: WeWork Bonds Drop Below Par for First Time Since IPO Filing

#80
post #74
post #37

It's remarkably easy to make fun of WeWork, given the company's high-as-a-kite ambitions, its largely conjectural business model, its dependence on fresh capital for survival, its charismatic CEO’s new-age antics, and its disregard for conventional norms of ethical corporate behavior.[a] But if the IPO of a company as prominent as WeWork fails and the company is unable to raise the fresh capital it needs to stay aflo…

I don't know, by the time you get to a series G, "show me the profits" is a fair demand that the capital markets should never not be making. Your post seems to say "if you don't prop up WeWork, good luck raising money for your startup." I think it's a little disingenuous to project that guilt onto startups that are in reasonable early and growth stages. Every company has a viable plan for survival by that stage. And…

>Your post seems to say

I think it clearly does not. It was descriptive, not prescriptive.

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