NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War • Hacker News Board

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#121

Post by Fnoord » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:26 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #112

coldtea wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think that's some kind of exception? All kinds of cyber criminals also work for western governments/agencies as consultants. E.g.: "Since 2000, Mitnick has been a paid security consultant, public speaker and author. He does security consulting for Fortune 500 companies and the FBI, performs penetration testing services for the world's largest companies and teaches Social Engineering classes to dozens of companies…

The difference is that Mitnick served his time (and is no longer considered a criminal in the US system) but in Russia you can get out of jail early.

In a world with less globalization as today, Mitnick targeted mainly US companies and US government (and not in service of the US government). If he'd targeted Russian companies and Russian government he'd be working for the NSA right now, or at least he'd not have served prison time.

Russians who work for GRU serve Putin. Of course Putin is not going to put those to jail. The USA isn't going to put NSA employees to jail either.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#122

Post by wysifnwyg » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:28 PM UTC

coldtea wrote: post #93

_Understated_ wrote: post #9

I've often thought about what the next "Great War" would look like. Not researched it or anything but mulled it over. I honestly think the enemy will take out our power stations via malicious code that may already be sitting there waiting to go off right now. A few days after that, when people are still in total darkness and the supermarket shelves are empty then we will turn on ourselves and our "leaders" because we…

> I honestly think the enemy will take out our power stations via malicious code that may already be sitting there waiting to go off right now. Not so sure. There have been all kind of wars in the past 10-15 years, and they were pretty much conventional. Bombs, armies, attacks, and so on. No high tech wizardry needed... Not to mention, why even have things like power stations and other infrastructure reachable over t…

I wrote on the subject of cyber warfare and the vulnerability of our nation's utilities first in 2015. At that point, a single malicious actor had gained access to a water treatment plant in Chicago that had no air-gap. They were able to cripple a system by turning a key portion on and off until it burnt out. In 2016, a water treatment plant was targeted in an attack which released high levels of treatment chemicals into the water supply. There is an exceptionally high risk of damage.

https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/water-treatment-p...

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#123

Post by PorterDuff » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:29 PM UTC

14 wrote: post #56

Such a bleak picture of the future where the only solution is for all of us to give up our privacy and allow the government to watch us so they can keep us safe. There are so many rants I could go off on this article I would not even know where to start but I will say this. What about the option of peace building? Why not put 1/3 of your insane military budget towards a new mission of going into the places you have t…

"Why not put 1/3 of your insane military budget towards..."

Heck, why not put 1/3 of the NSA budget towards hardening computers and networks?

I'm afraid that given the choice between:

. Everyone is surveilled.

. No one is surveilled.

They'll always pick the first, even with the best intentions.

It's for the children.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#124

Post by bluntfang » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:31 PM UTC

zabana wrote: post #116

Unrelated (kind of): do you guys/girls recommend books (especially novels) that cover the subjects of futurism, espionage, cyber warfare and other related topics ? I find the current situation to be very dystopic and would love to read more about it. Thanks in advance !

William Gibson's Neuromancer and Sprawl Trilogy and other works.

Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#125

Post by PorterDuff » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:33 PM UTC

situational87 wrote: post #14

pluma wrote: post #3

Maybe the US would do well to obsess a little less about wars? After spending 90%+ of its time existing on being at war, it sure would seem like a good time to take a break and stop attacking other countries maybe.

We just admitted defeat in Afghanistan after 18 years of.. what was the mission again? Build a government? Build the Afghan National Army? We cut out both of those groups from peace talks with the Taliban this year. We tried to keep the talks secret from the government you're negotiating peace about. I can't imagine a more awkward way to discover that mission has been a failure. This has turned into a Vietnam-scale b…

I think you could make an argument for a 'war', but you need to think less like a Roman and more like a Byzantine.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#126

Post by YinglingLight » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:33 PM UTC

hos234 wrote: post #70

HenryKissinger wrote: post #11

> There are four key implications of this revolution that policymakers in the national security sector will need to address: > The first is that the unprecedented scale and pace of technological change will outstrip our ability to effectively adapt to it. Second, we will be in a world of ceaseless and pervasive cyberinsecurity and cyberconflict against nation-states, businesses and individuals. Third, the flood of da…

Translates to - We don't know what we are doing or why but please keep funding us. Henry Kissinger pls talk to Kim Kardashian, and the marketing departments of the world. They will have better ideas on how to fight the next war than anyone who has traditionally fought one. What ever you do don't talk to techies. As Chinese Intelligence is showcasing in Hong Kong, building giant machinery that vacuums up oceans of dat…

^cringe

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#127

Post by asdfman123 » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:34 PM UTC

hos234 wrote: post #70

HenryKissinger wrote: post #11

> There are four key implications of this revolution that policymakers in the national security sector will need to address: > The first is that the unprecedented scale and pace of technological change will outstrip our ability to effectively adapt to it. Second, we will be in a world of ceaseless and pervasive cyberinsecurity and cyberconflict against nation-states, businesses and individuals. Third, the flood of da…

Translates to - We don't know what we are doing or why but please keep funding us. Henry Kissinger pls talk to Kim Kardashian, and the marketing departments of the world. They will have better ideas on how to fight the next war than anyone who has traditionally fought one. What ever you do don't talk to techies. As Chinese Intelligence is showcasing in Hong Kong, building giant machinery that vacuums up oceans of dat…

I mean, as far as I see it, all this scary new data on our lives is mainly useful so companies can show us marginally better ads.

I mean, I'm sure there's a lot more to it and it's more complicated than that, but I think we'll eventually adjust fine to the big-data world we increasingly find ourselves in.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#128

Post by asdfman123 » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:37 PM UTC

decoyworker wrote: post #73

This is huge and is a subject I feel strongly about- especially for defense software. Parts of the US Government are already sounding the alarm over this. see- https://innovation.defense.gov/software/ Basically, we are too slow. The contract acquisition process and waterfall development moves at a glacial pace. I have some serious doubts we will ever adapt since it would require a restructuring of the way our defense…

Wouldn't it be possible to build the next generation of technology to be much less hackable? Right now we're all pretty dumb about cybersecurity, but if plays a major hand in shaping human events even stodgy Pentagon types might start taking things like air gaps and not writing your passwords out on a sticky note more seriously.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#129

Post by motohagiography » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:39 PM UTC

We could call this historical period a great dis-integration where the consensus that formed the equilibrium of the last 60 years has been disrupted by tech, and we're looking at a period of volatility before reaching a new equilibrium.

I've argued before that U.S. critical infrastructure vulnerability will prevent it from intervening in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Its lack of a strong homeland defensive posture on infrastructure has emboldened regional powers like China, Russia, and Iran to assert themselves over local NATO allies without fear of US retaliation. e.g. The US isn't going to risk a dam flooding or a long term grid failure over a distant minor ally. Arguably, NATO made sense when partners could defend their infrastructure, but the mutual aid commitment becomes a suicide pact when your cities can be turned into tribal warzones by depriving them of power, payments, and fuel. Nobody wants to get drawn into that by a minor ally.

That's the weakness that creates the power vacuum into which warring parties pile in. We do indeed live in interesting times.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#130

Post by asdfman123 » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 2:41 PM UTC

reubeniv wrote: post #41

_Understated_ wrote: post #9

I've often thought about what the next "Great War" would look like. Not researched it or anything but mulled it over. I honestly think the enemy will take out our power stations via malicious code that may already be sitting there waiting to go off right now. A few days after that, when people are still in total darkness and the supermarket shelves are empty then we will turn on ourselves and our "leaders" because we…

It's quite a scary one, drone swarms that outmatch humans by a huge degree might cause the losing side to surrender before a human life is lost, but they could also massacre the losing sides, satellites and communications of all sides are also likely go, then of course there's still nuclear armageddon

The scariest part about drone warfare is that people are going to not be important anymore.

There's a pretty good argument that democracy is possible because of the existence of guns. In medieval time, a peasant with a pitchfork stood no chance against a knight who'd been training his whole life and had all the tools of warfare.

These days, an angry mob of people with guns can do quite a bit of damage. The US military couldn't even beat the Viet Kong, despite how woefully inept they were at the start of the war, because they were determined not to surrender.

However, if future combat is all automated, we're back to the feudal days where all it takes to win a war is having more money than the next guy. A future Jeff Bezos could buy his own drone army and exert as much power as many national governments.