Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered • Hacker News Board

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#121

Post by WorldMaker » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 11:58 PM UTC

NotSammyHagar wrote: post #52

HALtheWise wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems likely that the end of life for vehicle lithium ion batteries will look roughly similar to end of life for vehicle lead acid batteries today. Namely, lead acid batteries are recycled at a rate of 99.3% in the US, making them the most recycled consumer good. The demand obviously doesn't exist right now because so few electric cars have reached end of life, but it seems like the transitioning the world to batt…

tesla's plan for old car packs that lost some range is to turn them into home battery packs.

Originally the PowerWall was meant to be all recycled batteries, though there aren't generally enough vehicle batteries to recycle yet, so far as I know Tesla has never sold a PowerWall with recycled batteries.

Nissan actually drew up a plan for a PowerWall competitor before Tesla even announced theirs, but has never produced one. Nissan has claimed to actually be waiting for the point in time where Leaf and other Nissan batteries are recyclable (and also that it has so far been pleasantly surprising how long the batteries are lasting in "first use" life).

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#122

Post by WorldMaker » Thu, Sep 05, 2019, 12:04 AM UTC

tzs wrote: post #40

ccsnags wrote: post #25

Lithium batteries aren’t green at all. Going to EVs just changes the impact on the environment. If we can’t solve the end of life issues with lithium batteries, we need to look at them as a technology adjacent to petroleum when it pertains to environmental impact. A true step forward would be an innovation of power storage itself, rather than the mechanisms around it. Build a better gas tank.

Location matters a lot with pollution. A ton of pollution in the form of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere is generally going to have a much larger impact than, say, a ton of pollution in the form of a solid pile of toxic waste. Does producing lithium batteries produce much pollution in the atmosphere or in lakes, rivers, and oceans, or is it more in the toxic pile category?

Lithium itself is often mined from salt brines in lakes/rivers, and that will pollute such water sources (though not with lithium, more with dirt and rust and miner garbage) when done incorrectly or too cheaply. But that too is a localized pollution problem and certainly something downstream users want fixed when it happens.

Lithium itself isn't toxic and doesn't produce toxic piles, though. (Solid piles, certainly, but non-toxic, certainly not like lead.)

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#123

Post by makomk » Thu, Sep 05, 2019, 12:32 AM UTC

HALtheWise wrote: post #33

ccsnags wrote: post #25

Lithium batteries aren’t green at all. Going to EVs just changes the impact on the environment. If we can’t solve the end of life issues with lithium batteries, we need to look at them as a technology adjacent to petroleum when it pertains to environmental impact. A true step forward would be an innovation of power storage itself, rather than the mechanisms around it. Build a better gas tank.

It seems likely that the end of life for vehicle lithium ion batteries will look roughly similar to end of life for vehicle lead acid batteries today. Namely, lead acid batteries are recycled at a rate of 99.3% in the US, making them the most recycled consumer good. The demand obviously doesn't exist right now because so few electric cars have reached end of life, but it seems like the transitioning the world to batt…

Seems unlikely. The reason that lead acid batteries are so recyclable is that they contain big slabs of pretty much entirely lead, which makes recovering it fairly cost effective. Lithium ion batteries contain relatively small amounts of the valuable metals that went into making them, and those are mixed with a whole bunch of lovely flammable and pyrophoric chemicals.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#124

Post by seventhtiger » Tue, Sep 10, 2019, 8:56 AM UTC

woodandsteel wrote: post #114

seventhtiger wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saudi Arabia extracts oil at $7-$15/barrel. The price should go up over time, but constant innovation in exploration and extraction drives it down also. Their reserves haven't gone down for 20 years because they are constantly exploring more fields. Currently their economy can probably remain stable until as low as $70/barrel for long periods of time although growth would be difficult. If their diversification effort…

>Oil is not going away this century. No, it is going to go away. That is because most governments are scared to death of global climate change and are passing laws to do away with fossil fuel consumption. It's not happening all at once, but basically as fast as the technology comes into place to replace fossil fuels.

Even if we stop fossil fuels tomorrow oil is here to stay. How long would it take to develop new aircraft? How long would it take to stop all industries from using plastic, and all agriculture from using petrochemical fertilizer?

Not all governments are in on some grand conspiracy. Many governments would greatly benefit. But to make the switch now would mean severe damage to their economy and wellbeing. Even medicine relies heavily on petrochemicals inside and outside of the hospital.

Even if a country chooses to sacrifice itself to benefit the common good, it might not be enough to affect actual environmental change.