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Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

latimes.com

201–210 of 236 posts

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#201

I worry much more about public overreaction to rare incidents slowing and overregulating self driving technology than I do about the rare crash here and there. Overall statistical safety is what matters, and statistics goes out the window when the public emotionally fixates on specific mishaps and demands regulation that slows and cripples overall-safe technology. Everyone believes, without reason, that he is a good…

Overall statistical safety just now for Tesla autopilot is probably worse than plain human driving. You can reasonably argue though that allowing research now will save lives in the future.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#202

The Tesla damage control astro-turfing is out in full force. Between the surveillance state they've built and their complete disregard for safety, Silicon Valley will eventually be forced to atone for this from the public at large. Make sure you're on the right side of history.

Historically the right side has generally been technology making peoples lives better. At least in material terms such as life expectancy, diseases cured and so on. They still moan though.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#203
post #138
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is completely ridiculous. Adults drive into stationary objects all the time. 4 year olds walk into stationary objects all the time. As far as I'm concerned, there is only one criterion that matters when evaluating self driving cars: is it better than human drivers? The fact that we are still discussing this _one_ accident that happened _a year ago_ indicates to me that the answer is a resounding yes.

> As far as I'm concerned, there is only one criterion that matters when evaluating self driving cars: is it better than human drivers? By that measure, no tech company has contributed more to self-driving than Facebook Inc, masters of distraction. Relative safety isn't a good metric.

What's a better metric? When deciding whether self driving cars is something to encourage or discourage, the obvious question to ask is: Does this improve safety?

You can make moralistic arguments about why you don't like this or that, but at the end of the day you are causing unnecessary deaths when you choose to suppress a system which is better than human drivers.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced that's the right metric though. A more fair comparison would be: other drivers of similar demography driving other vehicles of similar age and specifications.

Why, though? I could buy a car with 3 star crash ratings, and people would be fine with that. I could get in a taxi with a mediocre driver, and people would be fine with that. Why does the comparison have to be to me driving, in a car like this ? When I'm shopping for a car, it makes sense. But for public policy discussions, what matters is how the safety ranks against the general population.

The question is whether "Autopilot" is safer than "No Autopilot" ceteris paribus, because if it isn't, then a trivial regulation to make the roads safer with zero downside is to just ban Autopilot.

You can't determine whether Autopilot makes driving safer by comparing miles driven only on highways by Teslas to miles driven across the whole vehicle fleet.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#205
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, we could also talk about the time the Tesla accelerated into a gore point when the lead car followed the lane to the overpass. Or the couple of times the Tesla drove into a semi trailer. Or the several other stationary emergency vehicles they've hit. At least the semi's were moving. We don't really know how well the Tesla automation does vs human drivers, because the statistics are complex, and Tesla only gives…

> The capabilities that Tesla cars have aren't that much different than other luxury cars, ... because their marketing It's actually somewhat impressive, if frustrating, how well Tesla's marketing works. In a previous article here a couple of weeks ago, a Tesla owner was touting "how much better" Tesla's blind spot monitoring was than "other manufacturers", because it took speed differentials into account, while my 2…

Even 2011 has it, and I am sure it wasn't the first year it was available either.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why's it hard? That humans get distracted and often make mistakes is no surprise, it should also be obvious that the amount of risky behavior is correlated to the amount of _perceived_ risk in any given situation, which is probably why so many are "a simple crash." It is, however, somewhat scary that a machine that has nothing else to do other than to drive the car as safely as possible still makes these "dumb" mis…

Adaptive cruise control makes dumb mistakes. Cruise control makes dumb mistakes. I know people who think automatic transmissions makes people worse drivers.

There are indeed satistics showing that standard transmissions actually correlate positively with driver attenttiveness. I will try to find a link...

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why's it hard? That humans get distracted and often make mistakes is no surprise, it should also be obvious that the amount of risky behavior is correlated to the amount of _perceived_ risk in any given situation, which is probably why so many are "a simple crash." It is, however, somewhat scary that a machine that has nothing else to do other than to drive the car as safely as possible still makes these "dumb" mis…

Adaptive cruise control makes dumb mistakes. Cruise control makes dumb mistakes. I know people who think automatic transmissions makes people worse drivers.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/108705470628810...

Well, thats half of the problematic drivers, and i suspect texters as well. /s

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#208
post #13
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The physical act of turning a wheel isn't the hard part of driving. Paying attention is. As an avid user of Tesla Autopilot I'll disagree with this. On a long road trip, monitoring my surroundings and making sure everything is generally ok is far less fatiguing than making constant microadjustments to steering, speed and following distance. Even while paying close attention to the ride, long trips (especially in st…

> is far less fatiguing than making constant microadjustments to steering, speed and following distance. Adaptive cruise control and lane assist, available in every modern car under the sun will make microadjustments to steering, speed, and following distance all day long. What exactly does autopilot bring to the table?

That's all Autopilot is--Tesla's branding for adaptive cruise and lane keeping. It's just as useful as competitor's versions.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a period of a few years where I drove a track-prepped race car on the street daily, with out of state plates for emissions reasons, and it resulted in a lot of police encounters.

Has there been any studies of this? I think it’s well known that if you drive a sports car you get pulled over more often, but I drive a beat up pickup in the south of USA and almost never get pulled over even though I’m frequently 5-10 MPH over the speed limit. Would be interesting to see pickup vs a normal mid range sedan vs sports cars in numbers. Maybe throw in out of state plates as an extra variable.

I don't know exactly where you live, but around me 5-10 MPH over is still 5-10 MPH under what even the police go.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#210
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is completely ridiculous. Adults drive into stationary objects all the time. 4 year olds walk into stationary objects all the time. As far as I'm concerned, there is only one criterion that matters when evaluating self driving cars: is it better than human drivers? The fact that we are still discussing this _one_ accident that happened _a year ago_ indicates to me that the answer is a resounding yes.

> is it better than human drivers? The bar is much higher than that. People accept people killed by other humans suddenly becoming ill or briefly not paying attention. We accept human error. We do NOT accept machine error. So the criterion is that autopilots should avoid a lot of accidents that humans risk getting into (e.g. lack of attention) but it must not be involved in ANY accidents that a human paying attention…

I agree with your thesis that facts don't matter when forming public opinion. Feelings and perceptions matter much more.

I do disagree about the mechanism. I don't find that humans are very generous to one another - public opinion very often assumes the worst and takes the least generous interpretation. People are more than happy to vilify a reckless driver who caused a death.

I think the mechanism here is media coverage. We are still seeing articles pushed out by media corporations about this one accident from a year ago. Meanwhile, human drivers kill thousands of people a day and you don't hear a peep about it. So naturally public opinion becomes scared of self driving cars and ignorant of the real issue.

All of that is really tangential to my point, though. My point is that "feelings over facts" is grossly immoral when ignoring facts causes tens of thousands of preventable deaths each year.

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