51–54 of 54 posts
I had a professor that told me it's actually a good strategy to make wild predictions far in the future. If you're right, you look like an oracle. If you're wrong, nobody remembers to go back and dig up "he predicted this on this date", primarily because they're already focused on the next predictions. Most of the time it's a win-win; the farther out in the future the better.
"when people study success stories exclusively — as many avid devourers of business self-help books do — they come away with a vastly oversimplified idea of what it takes to succeed. This is because success is what economists refer to as a “noisy signal.” It’s chancy, fickle, and composed of so many moving parts that any one is basically meaningless in the context of the real world. By studying what successful ventur…
So then I wonder if that makes a case for Jessica Livingston writing a book called "Founders that Failed", rather than "Founders at Work 2"?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Taleb reportedly made a multi-million dollar fortune during the financial crisis that began in 2007 "Reportedly". Also, "multi-million dollar fortune" is really vague. Sorry to spoil a good story, but the entire Taleb thesis is just a very entertaining way to say : "Shit happens". There is absolutely nothing new that he has to add, other than the entertainment and sheer drama. If there was, he would be able to publ…
Are you not allowed to call bullshit on something unless you can do better? I believe the contrary; I think that reading around and saying "You're wrong, you're wrong, you're wrong. Here are citations to show you're wrong" is actually a very valuable contribution to science and society -- what are the point of such models if they don't work? The difference between Newton and the securities traders that Taleb dislikes…
Agreed. Some papers just say, "We tried this and it doesn't work", and that's a contribution, too.
I would just like to point out that there is a good amount of unwarranted drama that overemphasizes his contribution and unnecessarily attacks fundamental contributions like the Black-Scholes model. It's especially appealing to the larger public who are looking for a black & white "us vs. them" simplified explanation for the financial crisis.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seth Godin makes a similar point to be unafraid of "claim chowder" - what happens when you make a prediction about the future and you end up being totally and tragically wrong. No one remembers! http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2010/11/unwarranted-...
Unless John Gruber doesn't like you.