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Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

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11–20 of 324 posts

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#11

He says he's (reluctantly) doing active stock picking. He's a professional investor; I'm just some software engineer with a nest egg, which is 100% in index funds today. What should I be doing, as a schmoe who wants to save money?

Take a look at opportunity zone funds today.

You can pull your money out and pay zero capital gain taxes for seven years. Then get a 15% discount on your capital gains at that time. All returns you realize from the fund are capital gains tax free.

The benefits end this year.

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#12

Not an economist, but it's obvious to anyone used to thinking in terms of systems that index funds can't work after a certain amount of the money poured into the system is managed by index funds. What's the limit - 30% 40%, 50%, 60%? What's the current level in terms of managed capital? (Edit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/passive-investing-now-contro... says 45% for US stock-based funds, half a year ago, so maybe…

[deleted]

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#13

Not an economist, but it's obvious to anyone used to thinking in terms of systems that index funds can't work after a certain amount of the money poured into the system is managed by index funds. What's the limit - 30% 40%, 50%, 60%? What's the current level in terms of managed capital? (Edit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/passive-investing-now-contro... says 45% for US stock-based funds, half a year ago, so maybe…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/john-bogle-has-a-warning-f...

> Bogle pointed out that as indexing increases to a certain point, it opens opportunities for active investors to exploit inefficiencies in the pricing of some stocks. But past that point, wherever it might be — somewhere beyond 75%, in his view — the market could become a dangerous place.

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#14
post #2

If true what's the hedge? Pension and investments to cash and bonds? Japanese stocks?

All types of investment in every country is subject to financial repression. You could own gold, but wait ! any gain is taxed as income ( not capital gain ). Carrying it around has stiff penalties. "You invest in how we say you invest" - Uncle Sam.

Carrying it around has stiff penalties.

What are the penalties for carrying bullion?

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#15

Not an economist, but it's obvious to anyone used to thinking in terms of systems that index funds can't work after a certain amount of the money poured into the system is managed by index funds. What's the limit - 30% 40%, 50%, 60%? What's the current level in terms of managed capital? (Edit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/passive-investing-now-contro... says 45% for US stock-based funds, half a year ago, so maybe…

You only need the marginal investor to be informed, so it's not clear that you couldn't have a much higher percentage of passive investment (say 90%) and only a small amount of active investors who are providing price discovery. The bigger problem is that most passive investments are not really passive - for example, choosing to invest in a "passive" S&P 500 ETF over a "passive" Russell 2000 ETF is an "active" invest…

This lists 3575 stocks among its holdings, which includes both large and small cap stocks:

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/overview/...

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#17

Can someone who understands investing well explain what he’s saying in terms that someone who isn’t knowledgeable about this could understand? I kind of think he’s saying that everyone is just shoveling their money into index funds without thinking about it and this leads to incorrectly valued stock that will correct in the form of a crash at some point. Is that sort of the gist of it?

I'll try. Price discovery means finding out the value of a stock by people bidding to sell and buy it. Historically, beating the stock market is hard to do, so one strategy is to just go along for the ride, buy a little of everything. This is what ETFs do. You're not bidding your guess of the value a company should have, you are just saying "hey, I'll pay what that other guy is willing to pay". Now, thats not a problem necessarily, but if the majority of people are not placing their own bids, and everyone is just saying I'll take what the market rate is, then the price of a stock isn't really tied to anything. This is the world we are in today. ETFs have become so massive, some of them are starting to be the majority shareholder of the companies in their portfolio. Now let's say our dear leader really tanks the economy and everyone rushes to sell their ETFs. The companies most effected by whatever policy fuckup are not the only ones that go down, the whole market will go down. Scary stuff.

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#18

He says he's (reluctantly) doing active stock picking. He's a professional investor; I'm just some software engineer with a nest egg, which is 100% in index funds today. What should I be doing, as a schmoe who wants to save money?

Most importantly what you should not do is freak out and sell everything.

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#19

Can someone who understands investing well explain what he’s saying in terms that someone who isn’t knowledgeable about this could understand? I kind of think he’s saying that everyone is just shoveling their money into index funds without thinking about it and this leads to incorrectly valued stock that will correct in the form of a crash at some point. Is that sort of the gist of it?

I think the contrast is between active and passive funds.

If your money is in an active fund, there's a manager exerting his intelligence in trying to make good choices with your money. This effort is beneficial, as it helps the market find the right prices for assets.

A passive fund adds money into the system, but it doesn't add any intelligence - it relies on the intelligence of the current market participants.

As more and more money switches from active to passive, we have more and more money relying on less and less intelligence. This means that the market is becoming less and less efficient, and prices are deviating more and more from where they should be.

Passive investors are essentially leeching returns off the work of the active investors.

This article suggests that the effect will be ultimately catastrophic, where I suspect that it'll just result in money slowly swinging back the other way as active funds take advantage of the situation to start to make more money than before. That's pretty much what the article says he's doing.

Re: Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs

#20
post #2

If true what's the hedge? Pension and investments to cash and bonds? Japanese stocks?

All types of investment in every country is subject to financial repression. You could own gold, but wait ! any gain is taxed as income ( not capital gain ). Carrying it around has stiff penalties. "You invest in how we say you invest" - Uncle Sam.

Taxes aren't repression.
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