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Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

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Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#171

Post by dsfyu404ed »

dirtyid wrote: post #150
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the question is how far are both sides willing to go with the violence? The further the CCP goes the more they risk deepening the resolve of your opponent (especially with a highly united population as in the case in HK). So far it appears that all escalations have done just that. The crux of the issue is that the people of HK do not want to be ruled over by the iron fisted CCP that drives tanks on people. Any es…

China relocated millions of urban youth to country side reeducation camps during the cultural revolution. If push comes to shove, it's well within the capability of the CPC to relocate the problem population in HK. The fact is, Beijing has not used any physical levers yet.

Nobody is doubting they can. It's whether or not they will. It's not 1960 anymore. Nobody in the west back then was gonna complain if the commies were starving themselves. China is also more connected with the world than before and on some level there's expectations of following certain behavioral norms that come with that. It's a fine line between "solving the problem" and getting slapped with sanctions that materially affect mainlander's lives and make them question why they even care about Hong Kong.

There's no good way out at this point. Somebody is gonna lose.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#172

Post by gwathk »

ackbar03 wrote: post #18
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can someone translate / explain [five demands, not one less]? From the article: “Apart from the formal withdrawal of the legislation, the protesters have asked for the government to set up a commission of inquiry to investigate police conduct in tackling the protests, grant amnesty to those who have been arrested, stop characterising the protests as riots, and restart the city’s stalled political reform process.” A…

Third and Fourth are ridiculous. I'm sorry but you don't set things on fire on the streets, bite people's finger off, throw petrol bombs, tie up people at the airport and say hey guys please grant amnesty, this wasn't a riot. Please grow up and take responsibility. If you choose to make those actions you take the consequences for them. Fifth, I can understand and dialogue can start and bickering in legislation, whate…

You do list quite a few allegations against protestors. Let me remind you that the level of police brutality is unprecedented during this 86 days.[1] All these events have made meeting the five demands becoming the least HKSAR govt. aka CCP can do to calm the society down. Asking Hongkongers to take it as is now is not constructive and to some degree immature. I urge the govt please grow up and take responsibility.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_Hong_Kong_Polic...

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#173

Post by ethbro »

dirtyid wrote: post #150
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the question is how far are both sides willing to go with the violence? The further the CCP goes the more they risk deepening the resolve of your opponent (especially with a highly united population as in the case in HK). So far it appears that all escalations have done just that. The crux of the issue is that the people of HK do not want to be ruled over by the iron fisted CCP that drives tanks on people. Any es…

China relocated millions of urban youth to country side reeducation camps during the cultural revolution. If push comes to shove, it's well within the capability of the CPC to relocate the problem population in HK. The fact is, Beijing has not used any physical levers yet.

China's cultural revolution occurred at a very different time geopolitically. Currently, China is attempting to establish itself as the new bipolar alternative to the United States.

This cascades into a lot of different things, but ultimately collapses down into trust. Just as the Cold War did.

Counterparties and potential allies are less likely to ally themselves with you, if they see you're intractable even with your own people. What does that say about how you would treat an ally or trading partner?

Furthermore, China is also attempting to integrate itself into the existing multinational trading and governance frameworks. That depends on votes from non-Chinese-controlled sovereign states. Being an international pariah makes that a lot more difficult.

Additionally (although somewhat tangentially), China would really like Taiwan back without having to invade it. It doesn't matter much in the global scheme of things, but it's been a splinter in the CCP's claim to legitimacy and supremacy ever since it was created as an independent government.

Oppressing Hong Kong makes peaceful Taiwanese reunification increasingly unlikely. On a decades / generations time-frame.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#174

Post by phantomathkg »

Don't believe in her word yet. Her word is "move a motion" when the Legislative Council resume in October, and the Security Minister, John Lee Ka-Chiu, submit the withdrawal to LegCo.

At that point, the pro-Beijing LegCo member can reject such motion and continue the third reading of the bill and Beijing win.

The other possibility is where we, the Hongkonger, continue demanding the rest of the four major demands, and CCP and Lam got so annoyed and trying to order a curfew. Again, this is not something any of us want.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#175

Post by ethbro »

poukofiru wrote: post #98
tobtoh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

That sounds likely. When Britain colonized Hong Kong, it took them more than 70+ years to pacify the people. Especially after the ‘67 protests, that resulted in 51 deaths. China is hoping the next generation will be more friendly. Like how the people of Macau are.

If it wants the people to be friendly, it should probably start pumping a lot more money into jobs programs, addressing income inequality, and building a helluva lot of housing.

Happy people don't protest as frequently. People who feel they have dim future prospects do.

(Simply from a realpolitik perspective)

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#176

Post by concerned_user »

sametmax wrote: post #164
justaguyhere wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

each time, HK will lose a few more rights they used to have. Very likely. Sucks for HK people though :( Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game

It works in our countries too. Try to pass a terrible bill. Get rejected. Try again. Rejected. Again. Again. Again. They only have to get it through once, since laws are very rarely removed, only added.

I also notice trend of adding some ridiculous/controversial paragraphs to the bill that you can "give up" later. When people are tired after first couple of rejections and general public is annoyed by same bill being constantly mentioned, new one gets thrown into the spotlight and latter one passes without much attention.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#177

Post by sjapkee »

dragonsh wrote: post #80
anvandare wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change. Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time." All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun. All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to rev…

> Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power A non-violent protestor is a person who does not fear anything, and the person who doesn't fear is the most powerful one. Violence is a result of fear, that's the reason need to use weapons and aids to fight back to increase the chances of survival. A true warrior is a fearless person who respond to violence with non-violence and make violent person ashamed…

>A non-violent protestor

Just an ordinary citizen, whose opinion can be disregarded.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#178

Post by nickik »

tobtoh wrote: post #72
dirtyid wrote: post #2

I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. In context of Lams leaked resignation remarks yesterday, it looks like Lam is going rogue. She's setting herself up to be replaced via disobedience, because all signs pointed to Emergency Regulations Ordinance being invoked if protest continues. Her legacy is already ruined, but I think she doesn't have the stomach to double down that far. Beijing specifically instr…

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

If you want to see a really, really brutal version of this.

Go look at how Stalin did the Collectivisation in Russia.

There were multiple slowdowns and removal of some of the harshest demands, but after a couple of months or years they came back, sometimes this happened multiple times. The amount of violence was also regulated up and down.

That said, the opposition defiantly helped, and in the End even Stalin did not get close to as far as he had hopped to get.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#179

Post by jxramos »

ethbro wrote: post #173
dirtyid wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China relocated millions of urban youth to country side reeducation camps during the cultural revolution. If push comes to shove, it's well within the capability of the CPC to relocate the problem population in HK. The fact is, Beijing has not used any physical levers yet.

China's cultural revolution occurred at a very different time geopolitically. Currently, China is attempting to establish itself as the new bipolar alternative to the United States. This cascades into a lot of different things, but ultimately collapses down into trust. Just as the Cold War did. Counterparties and potential allies are less likely to ally themselves with you, if they see you're intractable even with yo…

> the new bipolar alternative to the United States

That's one hilarious characterization of a government.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#180

Post by guerrilla »

i_am_proteus wrote: post #143
coldtea wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? If we're strict, it has plenty of avenues, including courts and elections [1]. They might be nominal, but legally they do exist and operate: [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_China

Elections are meaningless if the public can't decide who runs.

By public, do you mean the party elites and corporate newsmedia, like here in the west?
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