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Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

forbes.com

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Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#21

Post by Diederich »

klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

With existing infrastructure, for most locations, electricity is far easier to transport than gas. Even with some necessary scaling to support widespread car charging, electrical infrastructure is far more robust, redundant and safe than the gas.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#22

Post by inflatableDodo »

klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

>A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan.

A cube 3 meters on a side can also contain almost 160,000 meters squared of solar cell wafers, given a common wafer thickness of around 170 micrometers.

Assuming around ten square meters per car, that could keep nearly 16,000 cars on the road for decades.

edit - to take this further, a standard shipping container could contain enough wafers for nearly 20,000 cars and in 2012, according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, there were 254,639,386 registered vehicles in the US.

So that comes to under 14,000 shipping containers full of wafers, which could fit in one single ship delivery, for all of the vehicles in the USA.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#23

Post by arbuge »

> renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero

This seems to be the crux of the argument. It certainly doesn't make sense to me. Obviously oil would find it hard to compete with electricity if it was free, but amortizing the cost of renewable power plants means that is unlikely any time soon.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#24

Post by cortesoft »

vvanders wrote: post #17
sremani wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Petrochemicals are still an important component of industrial agriculture needed for feeding 7 billion people around the world. If oil prices fall too low, Persian Gulf and Russian borders become unstable and from there its any ones guess, how things would take shape. Energy is heavily interlinked with geo-politics and if Persian Gulf is out of the game even for few months - millions of people will starve to death. T…

Honestly the electrification of farm equipment is coming too. For a tractor you want two things: weight and torque. Electric drivetrains provide both. Tractors have way more complex transmissions(HST, Power Shuttle, etc) that all goes away with a VFD electric drivetrain. Large traction motors already exist(all cargo trains these days are diesel-electric). The lower operating costs and lower maintenance help as well.…

I think they are talking about fertilizers, not fuel.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#25

Post by ccsnags »

Lithium batteries aren’t green at all. Going to EVs just changes the impact on the environment.

If we can’t solve the end of life issues with lithium batteries, we need to look at them as a technology adjacent to petroleum when it pertains to environmental impact. A true step forward would be an innovation of power storage itself, rather than the mechanisms around it. Build a better gas tank.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#26

Post by userbinator »

localhost wrote: post #19
klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

That really is a remarkable visualization! So much so that I had to compute it for myself - 27,000 liters of gasoline will move an average car 287,000 km assuming 9.4L/100km which is the average 2017 fuel economy for a "car, light truck, SUV" in the US.[1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_automobiles

Relatedly, fuel consumption can be measured in square meters:

https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/325733/why-can-f...

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#28

Post by epistasis »

ccsnags wrote: post #25

Lithium batteries aren’t green at all. Going to EVs just changes the impact on the environment. If we can’t solve the end of life issues with lithium batteries, we need to look at them as a technology adjacent to petroleum when it pertains to environmental impact. A true step forward would be an innovation of power storage itself, rather than the mechanisms around it. Build a better gas tank.

I've searched extensively for the environmental damage from lithium batteries, and find very little except vagueness. Can you point out why you think they are not green?

I can find much more about humanitarian concerns for the non-lithium metals in the batteries.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#29

Post by epistasis »

arbuge wrote: post #23

> renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero This seems to be the crux of the argument. It certainly doesn't make sense to me. Obviously oil would find it hard to compete with electricity if it was free, but amortizing the cost of renewable power plants means that is unlikely any time soon.

There are times of the year where renewable energy is free right now, and production is curtailed.

There are also some places where prices go slightly negative because the producers' tax credit schemes give them revenue in excess of the negative price.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#30

Post by mises »

Diederich wrote: post #21
klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

With existing infrastructure, for most locations, electricity is far easier to transport than gas. Even with some necessary scaling to support widespread car charging, electrical infrastructure is far more robust, redundant and safe than the gas.

Transport != store. I can transmit, assuming there's a sink on the other end (though loss is an issue over distance). Considering there is neither enough lithium nor enough cobalt to make a Tesla for every American, battery tech will be a huge bottleneck.
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