Idea for a small startup: service, which collects predictions from experts and politicians, and have a number showing percent of predictions, which came true.
Anyone knows a service like this?
That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
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Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#12Idea for a small startup: service, which collects predictions from experts and politicians, and have a number showing percent of predictions, which came true. Anyone knows a service like this?
http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements is pretty close.
Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#13Personally, I like Schiller ( http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/ ) more than Roubini. His record: he wrote a book called Irrational Exuberance, and the .com market promptly crashed. He wrote papers from 2003 to 2007 suggesting the housing bubble was real, what it's effects were and how it might be mitigated / avoided. Where Roubini simply says we're all walking in the dark, Schiller is the rare critical eye who offer…
Personally, I like Mike Whitney (most recent article http://counterpunch.org/whitney01062011.html) more than Roubini. He's not so famous as Schiller but he's not afraid to connect the dots politically as well and call a wealth-based transfer from poor to rich class warfare when that is what it is.
He called the Great Recession many times from 2006 onwards, just dig through that site for his articles, like this way for instance (https://encrypted.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22by+mike+w...) - really, the guy is super cynical but nothing macroeconomic-wise escapes his beady eye.
Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#14A lot of this has to do with the way we "score" forecasts. Applying some kind of uniform weighting over forecasts is the natural, and wrong, way to think about things. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (black swan, fooled by randomness) has written about his trading strategy. At his fund, he consistently takes positions that predict extreme events, and he's wrong almost all the time, consistently producing grinding, negative ret…
he's wrong almost all the time, consistently producing grinding, negative returns. He's only been right a couple times, but when he's right he's really right, making enough money that he doesn't need to make money anymore
AFAIK his hedge fund haven't been right "big" even once so far and clients are only withdrawing money with a loss after few years...
Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#15This article is propaganda written by a shill.
Based on the author's logic you might as well throw up your hands and stop trying to predict anything.
Roubini didn't get his message from God, he made it based on a public, replicable analysis using standard economic theory from his economic school. Other people from his economic school also made the same predictions that followed logically from their premises and the indicators.
This is like saying when a doctor tells a patient that if he keeps smoking he will get cancer, and the patient gets cancer, he just did it by luck.
It's not by luck. He is not making wild speculations. He's doing it systematically based on logic and facts and a respected system that has a level of credibility behind it.
All the austrians predicted the housing bubble.
This article is a hit piece, pure and simple. It is teaching the reader to be stupid.
Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#16I had a professor that told me it's actually a good strategy to make wild predictions far in the future. If you're right, you look like an oracle. If you're wrong, nobody remembers to go back and dig up "he predicted this on this date", primarily because they're already focused on the next predictions. Most of the time it's a win-win; the farther out in the future the better.
Seth Godin makes a similar point to be unafraid of "claim chowder" - what happens when you make a prediction about the future and you end up being totally and tragically wrong. No one remembers!
http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2010/11/unwarranted-...
Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#17This article is propaganda written by a shill. Based on the author's logic you might as well throw up your hands and stop trying to predict anything. Roubini didn't get his message from God, he made it based on a public, replicable analysis using standard economic theory from his economic school. Other people from his economic school also made the same predictions that followed logically from their premises and the i…
The austrians also predicted 20 of the last 3 recessions.
Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#18[deleted]
Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#19Personally, I like Schiller ( http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/ ) more than Roubini. His record: he wrote a book called Irrational Exuberance, and the .com market promptly crashed. He wrote papers from 2003 to 2007 suggesting the housing bubble was real, what it's effects were and how it might be mitigated / avoided. Where Roubini simply says we're all walking in the dark, Schiller is the rare critical eye who offer…
I like Bob Schiller very much also. Really down to Earth guy and not extremely opinionated. Mostly his predictions are a range of possibilities, not 100% certain events like it is the case with Roubini.
When asked whether something is (over|under)valued he mostly answers he's not sure. If only others in Economics were as humble...
P.S. and obviously this is not something that will get one any upvotes :)
Re: That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.
#20This article is propaganda written by a shill. Based on the author's logic you might as well throw up your hands and stop trying to predict anything. Roubini didn't get his message from God, he made it based on a public, replicable analysis using standard economic theory from his economic school. Other people from his economic school also made the same predictions that followed logically from their premises and the i…
The austrians also predicted 20 of the last 3 recessions.
the Austrian school is not scientific, but religious branch of Economics though:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School#Criticism_of_th...