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Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

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Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that strikes me as nonsense It is nonsense. It takes multiple failures to bring down an airliner, and the NTSB accident reports recommend fixing all of them. It's why airliners are so safe today. The 737MAX issue is no different.

It's different in that it starts to look as though there was a fairly concerted effort to keep the planes flying even though it was known to have a pretty big flaw.

the flawed product was rushed to market to "beat" Airbus there, but hey it's only ~350 people killed, and weeks of delay to ground the fleet. Sorry Boeing, you messed up hard. Personally I don't care to fly, but I sure as F am not getting on your planes. Fish rot from the head down, and I see that in this tragic case.

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#102
At this rate they're getting a US bailout. I don't recall Boeing positive anything recently.

And as much as it fuckin irks me...US better throw them a juicy bailout if necessary. Because one aircraft manufacturer global monopoly would be a epic shitshow.

Boeing and Airbus have to walk away from this alive and roughly equal.

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#103
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's different in that it starts to look as though there was a fairly concerted effort to keep the planes flying even though it was known to have a pretty big flaw.

the flawed product was rushed to market to "beat" Airbus there, but hey it's only ~350 people killed, and weeks of delay to ground the fleet. Sorry Boeing, you messed up hard. Personally I don't care to fly, but I sure as F am not getting on your planes. Fish rot from the head down, and I see that in this tragic case.

I guess you won't fly Airbus either, as they were recently slapped with an AD to address pitch instability problems.

"The FAA is adopting a new airworthiness directive (AD) for all Airbus SAS Model A321-251N, A321-252N, A321-253N, A321-271N, A321-272N, A321-251NX, A321-252NX, A321-253NX, A321-271NX, and A321-272NX airplanes. This AD was prompted by analysis of the behavior of the elevator aileron computer (ELAC) L102 that revealed that excessive pitch attitude can occur in certain conditions and during specific maneuvers. This AD requires revising the airplane flight manual (AFM) to incorporate updated procedures and operational limitations, as specified in a European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) AD, which is incorporated by reference. The FAA is issuing this AD to address the unsafe condition on these products."

http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgad.nsf/...

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#104
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any reason you think that this crashes would not have ever happened in US? Before the first crash the pilots did not even known abut MCAS existence so I am not sure why you think that US pilots are extraordinary, I assume that not all MAX pilots are ex fighter pilots with super skills and whatever you imagine that makes ALL US pilots superior to the rest of the world.

So is it merely luck that this crashes doesn't happen in US ?

This is a good question.

A number of possible answers (and no, pilot skill not the only one - though everyone is focusing on that and boeing).

Maintenance.

This issue develops IF the computer gets bad data from a sensor.

Question - would this sort of thing get fixed more quickly in the US?

For the Ethiopian crash we have in days leading up to crash errors in the system - all different flights

* Capt side altimeter erratic, showed a decent and lower level then back to normal.

* During approach at 1000' the aircraft started to roll right with the auto pilot engaged.

* During approach at 8K altimeter rapidly descended and returned to normal - caused autopilot problems.

* During takeoff altitude and vert speed on both PFDs showed erratic indications

For Lion Air in days leading up an increase in warnings. Some excerpts.

* Speed trim fail light and mach trim fail light * Auto throttle diconnect * Speed and Alt flag * Feel diff pressure - fail light illuminated * Maintenance light illuminated during landing

Regulatory regime

What's the local situation in terms of check rides, maintenance monitoring and cross checks, airline procedure monitoring etc. Ethiopia has a relatively stronger reputation here.

Training

The memory item in this situation is basically a revert to manual flight. There is a possibility that manual flight is not as common in some countries, particularly if they don't have a large General Aviation pool to pull from. This is a concern in US as well (automation reliance).

The path to getting onto a jet in US is currently different than other places. To be a first officer takes 1,500+ hours and an ATP. That's a pretty high bar.

This is a design issue I think as well -> should Boeing reasonably consider that there may be differences between pilot groups in terms of training pathways. I would suggest obviously yes. Is the FAA at fault because other countries may choose different approaches? That's less clear to me. BTW the FAA did a terrible job for a while with small charter operators in financial distress with bad maintenance for example - so the FAA has blindspots but their Part 121 stuff has a good record so far.

The US system has had some amazing saves -> failures with airport bird control -> capt sully etc. Often these pilots aren't jet fighter pilots but have things like glider or small plane experience that is helpful. So systems break down in US, but saves happen.

My US worries are maintenance given cost pressures and actually Air Traffic Control (given fatigue and some weakening of standards there around new hiring).

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In all seriousness, i believe the reason why many think the crashes would not have happened in the US is because Southwest and others all ordered the planes with redundant sensors (in the area where it pertains to these crashes) whereas many overseas airlines did not.

But did the checklist had the correct instructions on what to do in the case the extra alarm light would turn on? I think since MCAS was not disclosed there must not have been mentioned in the checklists either

The checklist for runaway stab trim is the same with MCAS -> but more likely and so a much more critical issue. Boeing should have updated pilots for sure - BUT many MCAS events may have occurred and been saved by the existing checklist which overlaps the issue.

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#106
post #9

> What's more, over the course of his 55 years in the profession, he [lawyer Marc Moller] [has] learned that every plane crash can be traced back to a single, simple cause. I don't know, that strikes me as nonsense. It's precisely the interplay of many factors that lead to an accident - and if any one of them had been different, the outcome might have been different. See Reason's "swiss cheese" model of accidents - a…

What if every accident shares one common hole among all the holes that aligned, and had that hole been eliminate then none of the accidents would have occurred?

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#107
post #69
post #9

> What's more, over the course of his 55 years in the profession, he [lawyer Marc Moller] [has] learned that every plane crash can be traced back to a single, simple cause. I don't know, that strikes me as nonsense. It's precisely the interplay of many factors that lead to an accident - and if any one of them had been different, the outcome might have been different. See Reason's "swiss cheese" model of accidents - a…

The quote from Marc Moller seems counter to what I have seen as the prevailing thought regarding aviation accidents, which is: accidents are the result of a "chain" of failures; if any link in the chain does not occur the accident can be avoided. It is easy to say "software bug" or some single thing caused this failure, but there are many other factors that need to be considered: a/c certification requirements, train…

A lawyer's job is to win the case.

A forensic engineer's job is to prevent the next accident.

Cases are won on clear, persuasive argument. A simple, single-cause narrative works.

Accidents are avoided by removing or mitigating contributing factors, based on significance and costs.

Put another way: truth and science are not rhetorical activities. Politics and business are.

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#108
What an absolute hatchet job.

Ask lawyers who have a vested interest in finding someone with deep pockets at fault so they can collect on contingency.

None of you apparently wishes to hear it, but the cause of both these crashes, most proximately, was poor training of the flight crews.

Whatever Boeing did or did not do, and whatever corners they may have cut to reduce cost and remain competitive, these crashes cannot be laid at their door.

It's the inconvenient truth. The unpopular opinion. From the one person here who seems to have read and understood the preliminary accident reports and the FDR data: these aircraft experienced a runaway trim situation, and, whatever the cause, that is something that pilots must be trained to recognize and respond to without consulting the checklists.

Boeing and basic flight training provided everything needed to handle these emergencies. We can argue (as ALPA no doubt will) about the adequacy of training materials and what Boeing should have made sure pilots knew about the systems, blah, blah, blah.

In the end, if you cannot recognize a runaway trim condition in any aircraft you need to get busted back to flight school to start again.

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#109
post #9

> What's more, over the course of his 55 years in the profession, he [lawyer Marc Moller] [has] learned that every plane crash can be traced back to a single, simple cause. I don't know, that strikes me as nonsense. It's precisely the interplay of many factors that lead to an accident - and if any one of them had been different, the outcome might have been different. See Reason's "swiss cheese" model of accidents - a…

Well the probability of having two or more independent, crash resulting faults occur at the same time is remarkably low.

Re: Boeing's Crashes Expose Systemic Failings

#110
post #109
post #9

> What's more, over the course of his 55 years in the profession, he [lawyer Marc Moller] [has] learned that every plane crash can be traced back to a single, simple cause. I don't know, that strikes me as nonsense. It's precisely the interplay of many factors that lead to an accident - and if any one of them had been different, the outcome might have been different. See Reason's "swiss cheese" model of accidents - a…

Well the probability of having two or more independent, crash resulting faults occur at the same time is remarkably low.

> independent

That assumption and the birthday paradox is what leaves people walking funny.

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