Misinterpreting hurricane forecasts

I grew up in South Florida, and I'm surprised to hear people think the storm is getting bigger over time. I guess that's just something you grow up with knowing down there. People on the west coast tell me they're terrified of hurricanes, and I'm terrified of earthquakes. You can generally get out of the way of a hurricane if you feel you need to...

There are of course common sense things to do to be prepared: get bottled water, food, fill your bathtubs with water and a drop of bleach, make sure the car has a full tank of gas. We personally brought my grandparents down from Boca to stay with us. You can do those maybe a week, 4 days out before stores start to get really empty (grandparents can be moved earlier or later). If you have any coconuts palm trees, chop down your coconuts. These are common sense things to do if there's a remote possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane coming your way.

But I do think it's a little disingenuous to say that people didn't do enough to prepare if they lived on the west coast, given how quickly the path shifted. Partly because the NHC is generally so good at their predictions. If you saw the earlier map that had Irma going up east coast, and you were in Naples, you wouldn't think about moving, or at least I wouldn't. Our buildings, especially the newer ones, are built to withstand at least some level of wind. My house built in the 90s has held up through multiple Category 3s (Charlie and Wilma). It's of course all luck, and I know plenty of other houses that have had damage, parts of the roof torn off, shattered windows, though nothing catastrophic, built around the same time. I've driven through the outer bands of a tropical storm (not that you should, but I was in high school and we had a back to school party the night before, and I wanted the car to be home).

That's not to disparage the work of the NHC. They're great at what they do, and I read pretty much every advisory for every hurricane that's in the Atlantic. When you've got no place to go, a hurricane bearing down on you is a very scary thing. But if I'm in Naples, and 4 days out it looks like it's heading towards Ft. Lauderdale? I'm not making plans to move.

No doubt its a map they made themselves displayed in their own coverage >_<

You have to balance it with they crying wolf problem. If you make the cone too big, every hurricane will trigger a warning and then people will ignore it if the hurricane keeps missing them.

I've been living with hurricanes my entire life, and have been through many (the largest was Hugo in '89). The problem with all these cones is when they extend them beyond 72 hours. At that point, if we used your suggestion, the entire east coast could be in the cone. That means either no one pays attention, or everyone evacuates and next time ignores the warnings.

What officials (and the news) need to do is tell everyone to hold tight until 3 days out, and then start making decisions.

People also need to understand their personal situation. If an area floods during a summer rain storm or simply when the tide is high, then they need to be extra cautious.

The other problem is that many people simply have no idea what it's like to go through a hurricane. The mass migration to the coast means large parts of the population do not have the experience to make informed decisions. This goes back that officials and the news need to do a better job at informing.

My personal rule to consider evacuating is a cat 4+ predicted direct hit or just south and it is less than 48 hours out.