Facebook hype will fade • Hacker News Board

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#91

Post by gaiusparx » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 6:52 AM UTC

Facebook is definitely waning among my friends, but strong areas remains:

1. Social graph. Many are not active Facebook users but are keeping the accounts cos all their contacts are there. Facebook has actually helped people found their long loss friends and classmates.

2. Sharing links, picture and video. Facebook is replacing email as a means to share interesting contents. One friend actually visits Facebook just to read those contents posted by friends instead of going to the source such as YouTube. "It is easier". Twitter is an obvious alternative.

3. Facebook is the new Flickr.

4. Games. Hopefully when people think of FarmVille or CityVille they think of Zynga and not Facebook. Zynga should seriously break loose of this eco, build its own currency/credit system and focus on iOS/Android platforms.

5. All-in-one ness. Grandmas and aunties love this. Contacts, photos, video, links, cute apps are all-in-one. But this will mean less and less, as this group of not savvy web users will decrease with time.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#92

Post by gcr » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 6:59 AM UTC

knowsnothing613 wrote: post #77

mscarborough wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, at least for now. Nothing better for fickle teenagers will pop up in the next 6 years? Doubtful. EDIT: fickleness with social networks not restricted to teenagers, obviously.

The new it social network for tweens/YA is tumblr. Facebook will eventually lose market share to Tumblr. All these social networks are simply an extension of the email use case. It's nothing new, nor do I see Facebook taking down google. Social networks are like hot clubs. Eventually their popularity fades, as soon as another it scene opens, which is why I'd never invest in a social network site. So shall it pass wit…

What is special about tumblr? (honest question.)

I've only thought of it as a blogging platform that focused on small, "multimedia" posts (pictures, video, a short quote, etc)

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#93

Post by popschedule » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 9:25 AM UTC

in the future your time will fade

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#94

Post by dmvaldman » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 10:14 AM UTC

I don't know how people can seriously believe facebook is a bunch of hype. Or even that it's at the top of its success, as this article claims.

The $50 billion valuation, yeah there's some hype there. But whether Facebook will one day surpass such an evaluation is I believe a strong reality.

I'm just amazed at how well-run a company Facebook is. I'm in awe of how it is in a constant state of evolution and constantly being tinkered with. Usually when companies get big you see them play the game more conservatively. Facebook is exciting because it doesn't do this. I see so much room for Facebook to grow and surpass my expectations for it, as it has time and time again.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#95

Post by hucker » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 11:24 AM UTC

ladon86 wrote: post #54

jupiterj wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. I would like to know if the majority of people use Facebook like you (with people they knew previously) or they use it to get new connections. How can I get this information? Any poll published somewhere?

I think I can say pretty confidently and without providing any data that most people use Facebook to connect with people they know from real life. I believe that adding a complete stranger is seen as a bit creepy. Maybe the new Groups feature (like the hacker news group) will change that, but that's only a recent addition.

Maybe for our generation it is, but I can confidently say that this has changed amongst high school students and other youngsters. For them (at least the ones I have contact with), facebook is a tool for meeting new people. Hell, even a few people I know professionally has met their SO on facebook.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#96

Post by sskates » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 12:05 PM UTC

ibejoeb wrote: post #55

"...the merger turned out to be a disaster: AOL's revenue stream was reduced to a trickle as net users ventured out onto the Web directly." So facebook will fail when people venture out and socialize in real life? Seriously, though, I get the point generally, but I don't think it's quite the same. AOL and MySpace were assimilated and stifled by their parents' ways of doing things, whereas Facebook will likely continu…

I agree.

The author's main points seem to be that: 1. Facebook has similarities to AOL, and AOL's bubble burst 2. There was a bubble in the late '90s therefore there must be a bubble now 3. Goldman is investing in Facebook, Goldman invested in other bubbles, therefore the investment must be bad 4. Social is a fad

Nothing on why Facebook specifically is doing a bad job and why someone else is positioned to upset them. Not much evidence at all if you ask me. You could write the article with 90% of the content the same and replace "Facebook" with "Google" or "Apple" or "Microsoft"

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#97

Post by Raphael » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 12:09 PM UTC

gcr wrote: post #92

knowsnothing613 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The new it social network for tweens/YA is tumblr. Facebook will eventually lose market share to Tumblr. All these social networks are simply an extension of the email use case. It's nothing new, nor do I see Facebook taking down google. Social networks are like hot clubs. Eventually their popularity fades, as soon as another it scene opens, which is why I'd never invest in a social network site. So shall it pass wit…

What is special about tumblr? (honest question.) I've only thought of it as a blogging platform that focused on small, "multimedia" posts (pictures, video, a short quote, etc)

Multimedia appeals to people who don't read.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#98

Post by thefox » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 1:02 PM UTC

Facebook sucks!

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#99

Post by patrickk » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 2:16 PM UTC

sskates wrote: post #96

ibejoeb wrote: post #55

"...the merger turned out to be a disaster: AOL's revenue stream was reduced to a trickle as net users ventured out onto the Web directly." So facebook will fail when people venture out and socialize in real life? Seriously, though, I get the point generally, but I don't think it's quite the same. AOL and MySpace were assimilated and stifled by their parents' ways of doing things, whereas Facebook will likely continu…

I agree. The author's main points seem to be that: 1. Facebook has similarities to AOL, and AOL's bubble burst 2. There was a bubble in the late '90s therefore there must be a bubble now 3. Goldman is investing in Facebook, Goldman invested in other bubbles, therefore the investment must be bad 4. Social is a fad Nothing on why Facebook specifically is doing a bad job and why someone else is positioned to upset them.…

Authors main point:

"Yet social media is itself as temporary as any social gathering, nightclub or party. It's the people that matter, not the venue."

All the other stuff in the article is an attempt to back this argument up (AOL/TW merger stuff, Goldman deal a symptom of cashing-out mentality, MySpace collapse as a precedent.)

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#100

Post by wisty » Sat, Jan 08, 2011, 4:03 PM UTC

rsepassi wrote: post #88

samtp wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really 'lock-in' unless the potential switching costs are too great to overcome. If another social network could set up your friend network with minimal effort (and are better than Facebook), they will win. No one has long term contracts to use Facebook or pay a monetary penalty (like a cell phone). So if someone can re-create your social graph with you putting in less effort than you normally put into faceb…

Switching costs are absolutely the thing to focus on here, but limiting the switching costs to a replication of the social graph may be understating the true cost. Think of all the photos, and to a lesser extent, wall posts. I would imagine a lot of the time that's spent on Facebook is just browsing through photos (and again, to a lesser extent, people's wall posts). Much of it probably is just new photos, so obvious…

Everyone has a facebook account. If they want to look at old photos, they will look on facebook. Just like you used to be able to look at old blog posts on Geocities. People will post new photos and their favorite old photos on the next facebook, and stop looking at the old site. The old content sounds like a big deal if you are a geek who is worried about vendor lock-in, but I doubt that real people will really care.

It's activity that matters, not membership. If facebook stops talking about activity, and only talks about membership, that's when you know there's a problem.