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The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

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21–30 of 35 posts

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#21

Of all the things that I thought I would never see on HN. However, this is a technical review, and needs an advanced formal economics education to appreciate.

Eh. The mathematical discussions hardly involve any maths that a typical engineer or comp sci major may not be familiar with. I'd be surprised if more than a fifth-ish of HN readers (not necessarily commenters) were unable to understand most of it.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#22
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern economics doesn't really have a theory of value, which is a 19th century concern. (Arguably, Quesnay was the first person to have a theory of value.) Or, if you prefer, economics have a subjective theory of value. This has some normative content -- if you think the purpose of human existence is the greater glory of God you will find economics pretty disappointing -- but economists no longer try to explain what…

The fact that expected utility theory isn't nearly as scrutinized as the labor theory of value, whilst being at least as flawed, tells you something about the "value free" nature of modern econ.

It... is? The difference is that the labor theory has been thrown out as unsalvageable, whereas expected utility theory is useful enough in some theoretical applications to stick around.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#23
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The history of value theory is well explained in this paper by economist Alan Freeman: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48646/1/MPRA_paper_48646.pdf

It seems like an ok reading of the history on first glance but it is the Marxist perspective. I suppose necessary to understand the heterodox viewpoint. > So central to capitalist reality is this motor of growth that it lies behind both imperialist conquest and the launching of those periodic prolonged booms of which the Belle Époque and the post-war Golden Age are the most recent examples. This is a pretty ridiculou…

I don't know much about the examples myself. I'm interested in why the author is wrong.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#24
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that expected utility theory isn't nearly as scrutinized as the labor theory of value, whilst being at least as flawed, tells you something about the "value free" nature of modern econ.

It... is? The difference is that the labor theory has been thrown out as unsalvageable, whereas expected utility theory is useful enough in some theoretical applications to stick around.

The question is whether the grounds upon which it was thrown out (which relate to specific problems) are therefore sufficient for it to be "unsalvageable". Nonetheless, as I already mentioned, the pretension that economics lacks normative content gives the false impression that ideas must be discarded because they are not scientifically valid rather than for ideological reasons.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#25
When reading the section on social preference I couldn't help but think of Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process and its pairwise comparisons. Would that not satisfy Arrow's three requirements? It satisfies the first, since it functions regardless of the preferences themselves (though the consistency matrix may suffer); it satisfies the second on its face, since if everyone prefers A over B, then A will be ranked higher under AHP; and it satisfies the third, since only pairwise comparisons serve as inputs to the algorithm.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can try to answer any questions you might have. The article highlights two main contributions of Arrow. One is a question of how a society can make collective decisions. A classical answer is "utilitarianism" -- if a collective decision makes me happy more than it makes you sad, then we should do it. This requires society to be able to be able to measure exactly how happy something makes me and how sad it makes you…

I don't have the background to actually ask this question, but don't general equilibriums turn out to be NP-hard, meaning that the market can't always compute the solutions with a reasonable about of information exchange?

In Arrow's version the inputs are continuous rather than discrete, so I don't know if NP-hard is the right criterion. There is a discrete version that is NP-hard, but I'm not sure you even have existence for that case. The continuous version of general equilibrium is as hard as solving an arbitrary continuous system of equations, which is probably pretty hard.

There are a bunch of criticisms of general equilibrium. Some of these were begun by Arrow himself. If you have prices that are out of equilibrium, can you adjust them to be in equilibrium? If you see the whole demand curve, then you could. But imagine you just know that there is unfulfilled demand for some goods, and excess supply for other goods. If you just make small adjustments in prices to lower excess demand or supply, will you eventually converge on market-clearing prices? Arrow showed that the answer is: it depends.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#27
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern economics doesn't really have a theory of value, which is a 19th century concern. (Arguably, Quesnay was the first person to have a theory of value.) Or, if you prefer, economics have a subjective theory of value. This has some normative content -- if you think the purpose of human existence is the greater glory of God you will find economics pretty disappointing -- but economists no longer try to explain what…

The fact that expected utility theory isn't nearly as scrutinized as the labor theory of value, whilst being at least as flawed, tells you something about the "value free" nature of modern econ.

Expected utility theory, if anything, is more scrutinized than the labor theory of value. They gave Kahneman the econ Nobel for (among other things) documenting empirical failings of expected utility.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern economics doesn't really have a theory of value, which is a 19th century concern. (Arguably, Quesnay was the first person to have a theory of value.) Or, if you prefer, economics have a subjective theory of value. This has some normative content -- if you think the purpose of human existence is the greater glory of God you will find economics pretty disappointing -- but economists no longer try to explain what…

A "subjective" theory of value grounded on concepts such as "utility" is still a theory of value, just as a theory of subjective morality is still a theory of morality. > Now some of the people who made this argument were right-wingers, so if you think that only "ought" questions matter, the fact that people with the wrong notion of "ought" made a contribution proves that the whole thing is morally bankrupt. I don't…

The subjective theory of value is just that if people think something has value, then it has value. For a Marxist, telling people they are wrong about their subjective judgements is irresistable, so I can see why they strongly reject it.

Value theory was entombed by Marx' followers. Marx offered a theory that was a) a positive theory on how the economy functioned, b) a normative theory on why capitalism was immoral, and c) a mechanical explanation on why capitalism was doomed. In terms of a and c it has failed. I don't even think this is a damning criticism of Marx -- Smith and Ricardo were wrong about plenty as well. The neoclassicals moved on from Ricardo, but Marxists have refused to move on and instead of enveloped "the theory of value" in a cloud of words to insulate Marx from criticism. Mysteriously, while Smith and Ricardo can be criticized, critics of Marx are always "missing the whole point of the theory".

Economics is not all of social science. The core of economics is the study of markets, though it touches on history, or psychology, or sociology. Markets were pretty peripheral for most of human history, and historical, or psychological, or sociological explanations are more important. Maybe you can explain everything that has ever happened for all of human history, but I sure can't.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#29
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The history of value theory is well explained in this paper by economist Alan Freeman: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48646/1/MPRA_paper_48646.pdf

It seems like an ok reading of the history on first glance but it is the Marxist perspective. I suppose necessary to understand the heterodox viewpoint. > So central to capitalist reality is this motor of growth that it lies behind both imperialist conquest and the launching of those periodic prolonged booms of which the Belle Époque and the post-war Golden Age are the most recent examples. This is a pretty ridiculou…

Marxist value theory basically died out in the 70s, which Freeman basically concedes in the "The Marxists Divide" section. His TSSI is an attempt to resusitate the theory, but it has found few adherents.

Re: The Economics of Kenneth Arrow

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "subjective" theory of value grounded on concepts such as "utility" is still a theory of value, just as a theory of subjective morality is still a theory of morality. > Now some of the people who made this argument were right-wingers, so if you think that only "ought" questions matter, the fact that people with the wrong notion of "ought" made a contribution proves that the whole thing is morally bankrupt. I don't…

The subjective theory of value is just that if people think something has value, then it has value. For a Marxist, telling people they are wrong about their subjective judgements is irresistable, so I can see why they strongly reject it. Value theory was entombed by Marx' followers. Marx offered a theory that was a) a positive theory on how the economy functioned, b) a normative theory on why capitalism was immoral,…

>The subjective theory of value is just that if people think something has value, then it has value. For a Marxist, telling people they are wrong about their subjective judgements is irresistable

Marxists do not, in fact, tell people that they are "wrong" about subjective judgements, but they do say that you are wrong to say that my house is $1 even if it is valued at $100k. You are free to value it at $1. Further, both Marx's and Ricardo's theory stipulate the value of commodities given that they are already objects of demand. For Marx, the theory of socially necessary labour time is the window into that observation.

Subjective value theory actually aims to do something more - to accumulate all these preferences in order to explain price. It reconciles objective facts about the world with the fact that people have preferences - and Smith, Ricardo and Marx are no different in that respect.

>In terms of a and c it has failed.

Plenty of Marxian economists and philosophers of economics would support, with various strength, both a and c. For instance, they argue that value comes to the forefront in explaining crises, and several empirical models (such as by Shaikh and Cockshott, although I have my reservations about their theories) confirm high correlation between the best measures of labour values we have and the prices actually observed in those sectors. That's not to say that the theory explains everything (e.g why a Nike shoe costs more than an Adidas) but it was never meant to - Marx stipulated that it ought to explain the value of commodities, not the price, and that the price-form, through such things as copyrights and patents, obscures the objective labour content. The key is that (1) it doesn't make sense to apply Marx's theory of value to individual commodities, (2) Marx's theory explicitly applies to freely reproducible commodities under capitalist modes of production. Thus, collector's items (like fine art) and items not freely reproducible (like Nike shoes) are not covered. There is, however, some work in incorporating those, in the notion of "general intelligence" and the prominence of financial labour.

>Mysteriously, while Smith and Ricardo can be criticized, critics of Marx are always "missing the whole point of the theory".

Not at all, but Marx can't be criticised on the same terms, because his theory is fundamentally different. If you want to criticise Marx then you can't do so on the terms of Smith and Ricardo - there is a reason, for instance, that despite his encyclopedic knowledge of political economy, Marx claimed that the tendency for the rate of profit to fall was one of his proudest achievements - despite it being in Ricardo.

>Markets were pretty peripheral for most of human history, and historical, or psychological, or sociological explanations are more important.

I disagree. The materialist perspective is that men make history, but they do not do so as they choose, only under circumstances transmitted from the past. The leap from commodity production to generalized commodity production in capitalism was decisive, and as Marx and Darwin agreed, the past is the key to the present.

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