I have no idea how money works. I have a 401k, it's got more in it than the median 60 year old in the united states, and I'm 20 years from that. And I am terrified of how little I know about how it exists or survives. I read these articles and get a sense of overwhelming urgency that, without any explicit indication, I should do something with my nest egg to make it safer to survive a crash. And then I keep reading,…
I'll tell you something that nobody wants to admit to: Nobody really knows how money works. The average 401k holder has one because they don't have a good idea of how money works or what they should do with it. If they really understood their 401k, they'd know that they're probably getting ripped off in fees over their lifetime. If economists and financial analysts completely understood money, they wouldn't be in suc…
Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
71–80 of 103 posts
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'll tell you something that nobody wants to admit to: Nobody really knows how money works. The average 401k holder has one because they don't have a good idea of how money works or what they should do with it. If they really understood their 401k, they'd know that they're probably getting ripped off in fees over their lifetime. If economists and financial analysts completely understood money, they wouldn't be in suc…
The estate tax exemption is $5.49 million and affects less than 1% of all estates.
Well, perhaps pedantic, but the exemption effects 100% of estates. Less than 1% face any tax after the exemption.
Less pedantically, the exemption is actually $11.4 million for 2019:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2018/11/15/irs-an...
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
A bunch of people have given well intentioned but super vague answers to your question, such as "watch videos on khan academy" or "read newspapers." These are Bad Answers and instead you just need to read and obey two books and two books only: 1) https://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Guide-Retirement-Planning/... 2) https://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Guide-Investing-Taylor-Lar... If you do this, it will prevent you from b…
You might also want to check out the Bogleheads Wiki [1] first. It gives a good overview of what these books are about. [1] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#74I have no idea how money works. I have a 401k, it's got more in it than the median 60 year old in the united states, and I'm 20 years from that. And I am terrified of how little I know about how it exists or survives. I read these articles and get a sense of overwhelming urgency that, without any explicit indication, I should do something with my nest egg to make it safer to survive a crash. And then I keep reading,…
I'll tell you something that nobody wants to admit to: Nobody really knows how money works. The average 401k holder has one because they don't have a good idea of how money works or what they should do with it. If they really understood their 401k, they'd know that they're probably getting ripped off in fees over their lifetime. If economists and financial analysts completely understood money, they wouldn't be in suc…
* Yes, 401k plans usually have high fees, however the tax advantage they provide should more than offset those fees except for the very worst plans. And there are exceptions too: some 401k plans offered by very large companies actually have lower fees than popular low-fee IRA providers.
* When you say "get your money out of your 401k" are you referring to moving it to a low-cost IRA or cashing it out? The former is good advice if you have a 401k from an old job (that is not one of the aforementioned "very good" 401k plans). I don't think there are any reputable financial advisors that would suggest straight-up cashing out a 401k before retirement due to the taxes and penalties. The only circumstance I can think of where that would make sense is if it was necessary to avoid homelessness or pay for necessary medical care and you had already run through your non-retirement savings.
* You absolutely do "own" your money in your 401k as much as you own shares in a brokerage account or deposits in your bank account. If we're at the point where the government would confiscate funds in 401k accounts instead of just issuing new debt then the economy has probably already collapsed to a point beyond recognition.
* Your point about "clueless investment" is a critique of mutual funds and index funds not 401k plans. Someone holding an S&P 500 index fund in their IRA or brokerage account is no smarter than someone holding that fund in their 401k. Additionally, history has shown time and again that the only thing you can say with certainty about the stock market is that its aggregate value increases on average over time. The average person attempting to pick stocks, even at the sector level, is a recipie for them to miss out on the gains they need to have sufficient funds for their retirement.
* Your point about estate and income tax: and having the money in any other form would do what? You need to pay income tax on funds drawn from a (traditional) 401k plan because you deferred the tax when you deposited the funds. Whether you or your heirs are drawing the funds is immaterial in that aspect. If you have funds in a Roth 401k or Roth IRA or a regular brokerage you have already paid the taxes and as such you will not be taxed on withdrawls (except capital gains from brokerage accounts).
Similarly for the estate tax, if you had the money in cash at time of death you would still owe the same amount. On top of that, you'll be dead! What do you care what happens to the money after you're gone? Not to mention you need literal millions of dollars of assets upon death to get hit with the estate tax in the US so this will only apply to the literal 1%.
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#75I have no idea how money works. I have a 401k, it's got more in it than the median 60 year old in the united states, and I'm 20 years from that. And I am terrified of how little I know about how it exists or survives. I read these articles and get a sense of overwhelming urgency that, without any explicit indication, I should do something with my nest egg to make it safer to survive a crash. And then I keep reading,…
Educate yourself. I like A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Are You A Stock Or A Bond, and Your Money Or Your Life. Asset allocation is one of the few levers to control risk that you have. The more you have in safe assets (bonds and cash) the less likely to lose money in a downturn. Nothing's free, however, and that stability will cost you long term growth. Only you can figure out what level of risk you can love with (a…
It was assigned to me at Princeton in my intro to finance class and was formative to my financial education. It’s also very readable.
I am now a CFA charterholder working in finance, and I still love that book.
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#76I have no idea how money works. I have a 401k, it's got more in it than the median 60 year old in the united states, and I'm 20 years from that. And I am terrified of how little I know about how it exists or survives. I read these articles and get a sense of overwhelming urgency that, without any explicit indication, I should do something with my nest egg to make it safer to survive a crash. And then I keep reading,…
I recommend reading about the Permanent Portfolio: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/permanent-portfolio.asp The permanent portfolio was constructed by Harry Browne to be what he believed would be a safe and profitable portfolio in any economic climate. Using a variation of efficient market indexing, Browne stated that a portfolio equally split between growth stocks, precious metals, government bonds and Treasury…
If you're interested in further study: the Gyroscopic Investing community [0] is a great forum supporting the late Harry Browne's investment/asset allocation philosophy, as are Harry Browne's original (short) book [1] and the modern treatment [2] by Craig Rowland and J. M. Lawson.
[0] https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com
[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/82103.Fail_Safe_Investin...
[2] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13838783-the-permanent-p...
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have no idea the retirement account exists. 20 years from now a recession won't matter because the economy will have recovered.
There have been prolonged stagnations in the market. It took a couple of decades to recover from the Great Depression, and the if you invested in the 60s you might not be doing so hot by the 80s. The market isn’t a sure thing even in the long term, it’s just fairly reliable.
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
I recommend reading about the Permanent Portfolio: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/permanent-portfolio.asp The permanent portfolio was constructed by Harry Browne to be what he believed would be a safe and profitable portfolio in any economic climate. Using a variation of efficient market indexing, Browne stated that a portfolio equally split between growth stocks, precious metals, government bonds and Treasury…
Asset allocation strategies like this used to work because the components like stocks and bonds were negatively correlated. When stocks crash, bonds gain value and reduce the variation and risk of the portfolio as a whole. But that doesn't always happen. Sometimes the correlations flip, and everything becomes positively correlated, and everything crashes at the same time. Today, there's about $20 trillion in the glob…
Not really. The yields are negative, but the coupon rates are positive. Most of those were initially sold with a positive rate, then went negative as buyers bid up the prices. The issuing governments don't get that appreciation, and are still obligated to pay the coupon rate. If the yield is positive at auction, the borrower is still paying to borrow the money.
The only way the "borrower gets paid to borrow" is if the initial auction sees bonds sell at negative yields. That's quite possible when coupon yields are 0.100% or less (which has been common in Europe and Japan lately).
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Additionally, the article doesn't really discuss how much cash he's holding relative to previous years. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BRK.B/berkshire-ha...
Your reference material is incorrect (it doesn't understand how to assess cash & cash equivalents properly). Berkshire Hathaway's cash position was sitting at an all-time high of $122 billion as of early August. Your source claims $44 billion. Buffett will be distraught to find out $78 billion in cash is missing. "The result was that the company’s cash hoard -- a major focus for investors in recent years -- surged to…
Re: Maybe Warren Buffett Is Warning Us About Something
#80I have no idea how money works. I have a 401k, it's got more in it than the median 60 year old in the united states, and I'm 20 years from that. And I am terrified of how little I know about how it exists or survives. I read these articles and get a sense of overwhelming urgency that, without any explicit indication, I should do something with my nest egg to make it safer to survive a crash. And then I keep reading,…
I'll tell you something that nobody wants to admit to: Nobody really knows how money works. The average 401k holder has one because they don't have a good idea of how money works or what they should do with it. If they really understood their 401k, they'd know that they're probably getting ripped off in fees over their lifetime. If economists and financial analysts completely understood money, they wouldn't be in suc…
No, the assets in the fund are owned by the plan administrator, and held for your benefit; this is in some ways better than you owning them, as it makes them generally immune to seizure/garnishment by creditors other than the IRS, and only by the IRS to the extent you could take a no-penalty distribution.
That's a pretty basic error in a rant about how everyone else doesn't understand the basics...