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Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

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Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#191

Post by kjksf »

danso wrote: post #72
olau wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Red flags for me were language and sources. The writer didn't try to test her assumptions, as far as I can tell. I think it's true that Musk went in and tried to save SolarCity by assuming control and changing the course. That was news at the time where it happened. He did the same to Tesla, actually. It's also true that he's always talking about visions.

What do you have in mind in terms of the writer needing to test her assumptions? I don't know what that means, both in terms of the assumptions that she's obligated to test, or what that "test" would look like in the article.

Here's an example of an assumption she could have tested (as opposed to re-printing as a quote).

The headline of this article starts with: "He (Musk) is full of shit".

Why?

Because that's a quote from a single person she interviewed, who is a disgruntled ex-employee of Tesla with a history of ranging against Tesla and Musk (to quote the article "Since then, he had taken to sending Elon Musk emails and point-blank tweets, describing the pain the layoffs were causing.").

(as a total aside, if you've heard about a laid off low-level employee angrily tweeting and e-mailing a CEO of Fortune 500 company (116 to be exact) you would probably think "an unstable person" not "a good subject expert to interview").

Instead of treating "Musk is full of shit" as a fact, she should could ask herself "is Musk really full of shit"?

Should could do it by asking more people what they think about Musk, more Tesla employees, including those that are still happily employed.

This article is clearly sourced from the most vocal, the most virulent Tesla haters (the self-proclaimed members of $TSLAQ on Twitter).

You can easily find even more people very happy with Tesla's products and I'm sure there are plenty of employees who think highly of Musk.

But it's clearly a hit piece, not interested in presenting a balanced account.

The part about Walmart lawsuit doesn't mention Tesla's response (which paints Walmart in a very bad light) or subsequent joint statement from Walmart and Tesla where they make nice.

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#192

Post by pbreit »

smacktoward wrote: post #9

This bit seems pretty damning: > As SolarCity struggled to raise money from institutional investors, it began offering individuals a chance to buy what it called Solar Bonds. (“Now you can get paid while driving the solar revolution,” the marketing material said.) But there were few takers—so other parts of the Musk empire took up the slack. According to the shareholder lawsuit, SpaceX acquired $255 million of the bo…

Very clear visibility into ability to payoff on double-digit yields?

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#193

Post by gamblor956 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #188
gamblor956 wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if he succeeds, the Mars colony could come to be worth more to SpaceX than its satellite launch business. By a lot. While the concept of settling Mars is understandable from an academic perspective, what is the economic justification for claiming that Mars is valuable? Any Martian colony would require hundreds of billions of Earth investment just to become habitable for a few dozen people and there aren't any res…

> what is the economic justification for claiming that Mars is valuable? In all likelihood, it will be intellectual property. Putting people who have taken a risk to go to a new world (literally) in tight proximity with a shared goal is a proven path for innovation. The lack of many Earth-based restrictions boosts that tendency.

I reminded of the early days of Silicon Valley when it was mostly suburbia, farmland, and chip manufacturers and I think of all the hardships they must have gone through creating startups in their parents' garages.

CA is one of the most regulated, least risky places, on Earth and yet has led the way in innovation in multiple industries for decades.

More likely, Mars will be like Antarctica: a desolate and undesired research station and occasional tourist destination for those with too much money.

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#194

Post by brandonmenc »

olivermarks wrote: post #15
whatok wrote: post #8

If anyone is unfamiliar with the author, she was one of the first mainstream media authors to be critical on Enron and eventually wrote a book on Enron as well.

She wrote 'Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room' subsequently made into an excellent film. I suspect we will be seeing 'Tesla: The Smartest Guys in the Room' soon. It still rankles me that Nicolai Tesla's name is associated with all this.

> It still rankles me that Nicolai Tesla's name is associated with all this.

Why not? He was also an unstable "genius" who couldn't figure out the business side of things. Seems appropriate.

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#195

Post by kjksf »

xkjkls wrote: post #174
omarforgotpwd wrote: post #173

More negative news on Tesla drawn from interviews with short sellers. The journalist on this is famous for working with Jim Chanos, the short seller who was involved in exposing Enron. He is shorting Tesla and thinks it's the next Enron, and got this journalist to push his short narrative. I don't buy it. The economics of solar are great long term, and selling it with electric cars makes a lot of sense because a) EV…

> The economics of solar are great long term Why? It seems like a flooded and commodified utility market, the opposite of something with great economics.

This is "no one goes there anymore because it's so crowded" argument.

Solar is big business and will become even bigger (because the economics are great and becoming even better).

Commodity or not, some company will make good money there. That company could be Tesla.

As to blanket "commodity" argument: McDonald sells hamburgers, Coca-Cola sells flavored water in a glass bottle and StarBucks sells coffee in a plastic cup. There's money to be made in commodity businesses if you are big enough, have the economies of scale and the leading brand.

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#196

Post by aerovistae »

threeseed wrote: post #135
aerovistae wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. I think this article is on the money in the sense that SolarCity and the Buffalo plant failed, but without any greater context it's misleading. While this failed, SpaceX succeeded, the Model S succeeded, the Model 3 succeeded (even if it's been a rocky road). I don't think Musk was trying to harm anyone-- I think he doesn't realize he's human and he can't actually juggle 44 million balls at once. And I think…

The "nice guy" or "busy guy" argument doesn't hold up in court. You have an obligation as CEO (and Chairman at the time) to be ethical and legal in your actions.

I think the long arc of history is a little more important than what holds up in court.

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#197

Post by jonstewart »

kjksf wrote: post #182
Animats wrote: post #161

There are real "solar shingles", but not from Tesla/Solar City.[1] The big player is CertainTeed, which makes roof components. CertainTeed is for real; you can order those. The strange thing is CertainTeed makes both regular and solar shingles, but don't offer a matching set. DeSol has a product line of roof components, with solar, non-solar, and edge parts that all fit together. Theirs looks good, but may be vaporwa…

Even a cursory look at the photographs in https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2019/04/the-latest-on-... makes it clear that CetainTeed's shingles are nothing like Tesla's Solar Roof. Tesla's Solar Roof is a roof and has a single look. It looks like a roof, not a solar panel installation. CertainTeed is clearly an add-on. Maybe less ugly than regular solar panels but you can see that solar tiles are different than t…

TFA says that Tesla’s solar shingles don’t exist. There is no offering.

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#198

Post by btilly »

gpm wrote: post #169
btilly wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As laid out in the article, at the time of the merger, Solar City was indeed trying to get into manufacturing solar panels. That it hasn't worked out doesn't mean that the attempt doesn't fit within SpaceX's goals. I'm sure that the Boring Company also has investments from SpaceX. As to mine, refine, etc, he has generally tried to go down to things that he can get off of mass markets. The thing he avoids is having a…

I thought that the boring company was SpaceX/a SpaceX subsidiary?

Good question.

It apparently started as a subsidiary and then converted to a separate company owned by Elon Musk though SpaceX still has a 6% stake.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company for verification.

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#199

Post by AndrewBissell »

gpm wrote: post #169
btilly wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As laid out in the article, at the time of the merger, Solar City was indeed trying to get into manufacturing solar panels. That it hasn't worked out doesn't mean that the attempt doesn't fit within SpaceX's goals. I'm sure that the Boring Company also has investments from SpaceX. As to mine, refine, etc, he has generally tried to go down to things that he can get off of mass markets. The thing he avoids is having a…

I thought that the boring company was SpaceX/a SpaceX subsidiary?

No, but late last year Elon Musk was caught tunneling funds from SpaceX to Boring Company and putting SpaceX employees to work on BoringCo projects. He had to give SpaceX shareholders a stake in Boring to smooth things over.

Re: Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

#200

Post by gamblor956 »

kjksf wrote: post #182
Animats wrote: post #161

There are real "solar shingles", but not from Tesla/Solar City.[1] The big player is CertainTeed, which makes roof components. CertainTeed is for real; you can order those. The strange thing is CertainTeed makes both regular and solar shingles, but don't offer a matching set. DeSol has a product line of roof components, with solar, non-solar, and edge parts that all fit together. Theirs looks good, but may be vaporwa…

Even a cursory look at the photographs in https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2019/04/the-latest-on-... makes it clear that CetainTeed's shingles are nothing like Tesla's Solar Roof. Tesla's Solar Roof is a roof and has a single look. It looks like a roof, not a solar panel installation. CertainTeed is clearly an add-on. Maybe less ugly than regular solar panels but you can see that solar tiles are different than t…

You appear to be conflating CertainTeed with GAF. CertainTeed sits flush with the surrounding tiles because it replaces normal tiles (see https://www.certainteed.com/solar/products/apollo-ii/; the solar tiles are installed directly onto the roof sheathing, i.e., the same layer that normal shingles would be installed onto.) They can be installed over the entire roof, but CertainTeed doesn't recommend that (see their brochure; it must be something they get asked about frequently due to Tesla).

GAF's panels (the 2nd picture) sit on top of the normal roof.

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