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The Trouble with Fusion (1983) [pdf]

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Re: The Trouble with Fusion (1983) [pdf]

#41
post #14
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, that's not what the issue is. That's an effect, not a cause. The cause is that fusion turned out to be less promising than had been thought, and that led to budgets being tight. Lidsky's devastating critique was part of that (tokamaks not being as good as early hopes implied was another.)

> The cause is that fusion turned out to be less promising than had been thought So did a whole lot of chemical rocketry. Instead of whining about it--we spent a lot of money on engineering, we made the Saturn V, and we went to the moon anyway. The issue is that fusion only has one end point--providing energy. Researching chemical rocketry made better weapons--so we funded the snot out of it. The DOE spent billions o…

This kind of neglects the fact that "rocket science" was just "harder than thought" for american scientists. Stuff started to work when they let German scientists build it.

Which is no surprise. Germany already had dozens amateur (space) rocket clubs way back in 1930, long before people in other countries were even mostly aware of the possibilty of sending rockets way up there.

The US had some catching up to do in the science department, which they accomplished in the end, though rockets loosely based on those initial designs are still in use today.

This is different to today's fusion situation, where we don't know whether there will be any better design at all - because nobody did built something that could be adapted to fit our purpose before us.

Re: The Trouble with Fusion (1983) [pdf]

#42
I'm a layperson like everyone else here, so I'm just going to rely on the fact that fusion research is ongoing, well-supported by government and private sector investment, and is an active area of research for hundreds or thousands of intelligent and sane institutionally supported academics, as reasonable and practical justifications for my belief that fusion is not quite as problematic as laid out in Lidsky's dated and superseded work.

However, for a sketch of how to address the talking points of the more strident objectors one encounters in the wild, one can perhaps turn to https://fire.pppl.gov/fusion_critic_response_stacey.pdf for some ideas. Cheers!

Re: The Trouble with Fusion (1983) [pdf]

#43
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High neutron flux is useful not only for weapons but for civilian purposes too, for example for "burning" nuclear waste, or for fusion-fission hybrid reactors. I wonder why the Department of Energy does not invest more in this area.

Fusion-fission hybrids combine the worst features of both. There is no user "pull" for the concept. If you want power with fission, just build a fission reactor; that's going to be simpler, cheaper, and altogether more sensible. If you want to dispose of waste, just seal it in dry casks and wait a century or three before deciding what to do with it. That will also be much simpler and (due to nonzero interest rates) c…

> Fusion-fission hybrids combine the worst features of both.

Maybe, but maybe not.

Worst features for fusion reactors: 1. they don't exit now and they won't exist for the next 50 years; 2. they produce lots of neutrons, which make the surroundings radioactive

Worst features for fission reactors: 3. they can go Chernobyl, 4. they produce long-living radioactive waste, 5. they are horribly expensive 6. proliferation concerns

How do these things look for a fusion-fission hybrid:

1. fusion reactors don't exist. Well, they do exist but they are well below the breakeven point. For a hybrid, the fusion part has (a very) negative energy balance, but it's more than made up for by the fission part, so being above breakeven is not a concern. The technology to manufacture the fusion part of a hybrid exists today (and has existed for decades)

2. fusion reactors produce lots of neutrons. For a hybrid, this is actually the point of the fusion half

3. fission reactors can go Chernobyl. This is so because the current fission reactors are powered by a chain reaction. This chain reaction threads the very fine line between subcritical and supercritical, in other words a classical fission reactor sits in a very narrow region between a bomb and a fizzle. The fission reactor in a hybrid gets its neutrons from its fusion partner, not via a chain reaction. The beauty of not having a chain reaction is that you can't have a supercritical chain reaction, or a Chernobyl event

4. fission reactors produce long-lived nuclear waste. I agree with you that this is not the big deal that's made up to be by environmental groups, but the fact that you can burn it via a fusion-fission hybrid is a nice bonus point

5. fission reactors are expensive. this is fundamentally a consequence of 3, that they present the danger of going boom. And as long as the fission reactors get their energy from a chain reaction, this danger exists. If you have a design that cannot go supercritical because it does not rely on a chain reaction, this is going to be inherently passively safe.

6. proliferation concerns. Here I simply have no idea how fussion-fission hybrids compare with classical fission reactors. That's why I mentioned the Department of Energy. If they develop and run these new reactors, then proliferation concerns become moot.

Besides all these points, the fusion-fission hybrids have another advantage: they can burn U-238 [1], which makes up 99% of the uranium on Earth. This means not only you have more fuel available, but you don't have to go through the stupendously expensive process of enrichment. Or it can burn Thorium-232, which is 3 times more abundant than uranium. In other words, not only the construction costs would be much lower, but the operation costs too.

Oh, and here's another advantage. Because classical fission reactors are based on a chain reaction that has to be very narrowly confined between supercritical and subcritical, at any given point only a very tiny fraction of the fuel is burning. Nuclear advocates don't like to dwell on that, but they like to point to the flip side of this coin, that the fuel lasts for a very long time (years). However, if you could burn the fuel faster, you can get the same power from a smaller reactor. We could be talking a factor of 100. Since construction costs don't scale linearly with size, a reactor that's 100 times smaller could easily be 1000 or 10000 times cheaper. And we could end up being able to send gigawatt-size reactors to Mars, rather than the kilowatt-size currently envisioned by NASA [2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fusion%E2%80%93fission...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilopower

Re: The Trouble with Fusion (1983) [pdf]

#44
post #16
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The cause is that fusion turned out to be less promising than had been thought So did a whole lot of chemical rocketry. Instead of whining about it--we spent a lot of money on engineering, we made the Saturn V, and we went to the moon anyway. The issue is that fusion only has one end point--providing energy. Researching chemical rocketry made better weapons--so we funded the snot out of it. The DOE spent billions o…

Not a good analogy. Chemical rockets are the only real way to get to space. So if you make them better, even incrementally, you have a win. It also helped that launchers were very far away from fundamental economic limits on their performance. Expendable launchers, unlike power plants, are expended. But fusion is competing against a plethora of other approaches to production of energy that actually work, and are bein…

> This heat has to be turned into power using turbines and generators, a mature technology. And it's a mature technology that's a major part of the cost of coal and nuclear power plants, and is a big reason why those power plants are no longer competitive.

Erm, natural gas uses turbines and generators and nobody seems to be whining about that. It isn't the turbine driving the cost in coal (nuclear is a different story).

First, we still can't engineer a superconductor. We have barely doubled magnetic field strength since 1970ish. And the big advance of superconductivity in graphite with slight offsets demonstrates just how little we know. Superconductors would have had a massive improvement in basic science with funding (this was one of the huge losses in not funding the Superconducting Supercollider).

The FFT (fast fourier transform) was effectively useless in the 1970s and 1980s--until Moore's Law made it not so useless. Similarly, computational dynamics made huge advances since the 1980s--to the point where non-simple toroids are now the standard.

Knowledge advances in a "front". If you throw money at a point (especially a fundamental one), it drags related knowledge forward as well. Look at steel, for example. Steel has been considered "mature and well-understood" (hah!) practically since 1910--but there was so much money being thrown at it that it continuously advanced for almost a century. Once steel moved forward, architecture and construction moved forward. Then we got new applications like cars. Then we got new tooling like heavy presses. Then we could use more exotic materials like titanium. I can go on and on.

Re: The Trouble with Fusion (1983) [pdf]

#45
post #44
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a good analogy. Chemical rockets are the only real way to get to space. So if you make them better, even incrementally, you have a win. It also helped that launchers were very far away from fundamental economic limits on their performance. Expendable launchers, unlike power plants, are expended. But fusion is competing against a plethora of other approaches to production of energy that actually work, and are bein…

> This heat has to be turned into power using turbines and generators, a mature technology. And it's a mature technology that's a major part of the cost of coal and nuclear power plants, and is a big reason why those power plants are no longer competitive. Erm, natural gas uses turbines and generators and nobody seems to be whining about that. It isn't the turbine driving the cost in coal (nuclear is a different stor…

Natural gas uses combustion turbines, not steam turbines (except as a bottoming cycle in combined cycle plants, but that produces only 1/3 of the output of the plant).

What combustion turbines allow you to do is avoid heat exchangers, and also operate at a temperature much higher than a steam turbine because no solid material needs to be at the temperature of the working fluid. A simple cycle gas turbine (without regeneration) has no heat exchangers. Heat exchangers are expensive; transfer of heat across a solid/fluid interface is not as fast as we'd like it to be.

Re: The Trouble with Fusion (1983) [pdf]

#46

I'm a layperson like everyone else here, so I'm just going to rely on the fact that fusion research is ongoing, well-supported by government and private sector investment, and is an active area of research for hundreds or thousands of intelligent and sane institutionally supported academics, as reasonable and practical justifications for my belief that fusion is not quite as problematic as laid out in Lidsky's dated…

In fact, section III of that document specifically rebuts The Trouble with Fusion, based on the state of knowledge 16 years later.

Re: The Trouble with Fusion (1983) [pdf]

#47
post #46

I'm a layperson like everyone else here, so I'm just going to rely on the fact that fusion research is ongoing, well-supported by government and private sector investment, and is an active area of research for hundreds or thousands of intelligent and sane institutionally supported academics, as reasonable and practical justifications for my belief that fusion is not quite as problematic as laid out in Lidsky's dated…

In fact, section III of that document specifically rebuts The Trouble with Fusion , based on the state of knowledge 16 years later.

This is all you really need to read from Stacey:

"Based on our present understanding, D-T tokamak fusion reactors project a cost-of-electricity that is about 50% larger than the projected cost-of-electricity from advanced light-water reactors in the middle of the next century."

We all know what happened to the projected cost of fission reactors -- the projections turned out to be hopelessly optimistic, because of complexity and loss of experience. Fusion would face these problems in even worse form (indeed, ITER's cost ballooned 4x or more past the initial projections.)

The experience with fission has enabled us to calibrate the optimism bias in these projections, with damning results.

Simply being competitive with fission is no longer good enough for fusion to succeed. It has to be significantly better than fission.

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