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How Uber Got Lost

nytimes.com

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Re: How Uber Got Lost

#51

Post by goatinaboat »

_hardwaregeek wrote: post #9

I feel deeply uncomfortable taking Ubers, especially in Seattle. The drivers are inevitably working class folk, just trying to scrape by. They inevitably mention the increasing rent and cost of living. They inevitably ask what I do and I have to respond that I'm one of the asshole carpetbagging tech people who come in and raise the cost of living, raise the rent. Services like Uber are placing the class barrier front…

This, I think, is at the heart of the self-driving car hype. People love ordering a car by app, they love SoftBank or whoever subsiding their ride, they don’t really care about externalities like the company evading its taxes. But talking to the working class, that’s a step too far for them.

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#52

Post by dumbfoundded »

rokhayakebe wrote: post #45
dumbfoundded wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber really has no advantage to self-driving. A customer network doesn't mean much if you cannot finance actually building the cars. They also don't any training data to give them a tech advantage. It'd make way more sense for an existing car company to build the features into the car and let the owner rent out the car when they don't need it. (Telsa, GM/Cruise). Another option is to simply build the best technology…

No, it makes more sense for Uber to do so because the solution they would build “could” be an add on to different cars giving anyone with such car the ability to add it to Uber’s fleet. When BMW creates their solution, it will “probably” not work on an Audi or Ford.

That's just not how self-driving cars will emerge. There's not going to be level-5 for a really long time. Even longer to get the laws into place to manage it. The progress will be gradual.

What's going to happen and is already happening is cars will offer certain self-driving features. Things like lane-keeping, brake assist, highway driving. Car companies will also put in all the necessary sensors to collect training data. Then provide over the air updates. Tesla & GM(Cruise) are already doing this.

There's not really a way for Uber to get to level-5 first and at that point, why build a kit that integrates with your old Honda to give it lane-keeping?

The only dataset Uber has is a general sense of where and when people want to travel. Google & Apple probably have much better data through their map apps. They both also have an ungodly amount of money to both acquire the best researchers and create & distribute these kits.

In my opinion, self-driving cars are a race between auto companies and these cash-flush tech giants. Uber/Lyft/Didi all don't really have a chance.

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#53

Post by goatinaboat »

ma2rten wrote: post #38
dumbfoundded wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber really has no advantage to self-driving. A customer network doesn't mean much if you cannot finance actually building the cars. They also don't any training data to give them a tech advantage. It'd make way more sense for an existing car company to build the features into the car and let the owner rent out the car when they don't need it. (Telsa, GM/Cruise). Another option is to simply build the best technology…

I don't think see the point of owning a car, if it's used by other people for most the day. I think there is going to be a big company that owns most cars. Uber could raise the capital for it on the stock market. The problem that I see is that Uber doesn't have the technology. In a world where self driving cars are a commodity, Uber's brand could be an advantage. But in reality, by the time Uber gets access to the te…

This is a key bit of psychology that is often overlooked. People who get Ubers exclusively think that a car is a metal box on wheels that goes from A to B. But most people who own cars see them as a self-propelled room of their apartment or house, a personal space in other words.

Like if you have a kid and drive your kid to places in your car then you probably leave loads of kid stuff in your car, and if the kid spill something you probably don’t worry too much about cleaning it to pristine state immediately. But imagine after every school run or activity or playdate you had to valet your car immaculate so strangers could use it. No one will do this.

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#54

Post by Jommi »

rokhayakebe wrote: post #44
dumbfoundded wrote: post #15

I think NYT misses the point. The problem with Uber isn't some cultural issue, it's that they're in an extremely tough and competitive business. It's really a race to the bottom. The logic I kept hearing repeated is ride-sharing is a winner take all market. Like once you have a network of drivers setup giving people the lowest times for rides, you can force other competitors out and raise prices. Time has proven how…

Winner Takes “All” is an incomplete sentence. All what? All profits or all losses?

It's a common term.

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#55

Post by Consultant32452 »

goatinaboat wrote: post #53
ma2rten wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think see the point of owning a car, if it's used by other people for most the day. I think there is going to be a big company that owns most cars. Uber could raise the capital for it on the stock market. The problem that I see is that Uber doesn't have the technology. In a world where self driving cars are a commodity, Uber's brand could be an advantage. But in reality, by the time Uber gets access to the te…

This is a key bit of psychology that is often overlooked. People who get Ubers exclusively think that a car is a metal box on wheels that goes from A to B. But most people who own cars see them as a self-propelled room of their apartment or house, a personal space in other words. Like if you have a kid and drive your kid to places in your car then you probably leave loads of kid stuff in your car, and if the kid spil…

I've thought a lot about this. I think, if the price is right, it could work for families in lieu of a second car. In a "traditional" family there's two vehicles. One is a commuter car and the other is a family-mobile (Van/SUV) which holds all the stuff. In this case, the commuter car could theoretically be replaced by a car service in many cases.

The other problem is that people would have to stop seeing cars as a status symbol. A not insignificant portion of women I know think it's hot if a guy has a cool/fast/whatever car. That will be harder to change.

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#56

Post by usrusr »

paulcole wrote: post #6
todd3834 wrote: post #5

I feel like Uber became a gamble on self driving technology. It will be interesting to see if they can last long enough to see it happen. I could see them running out of money before that happens but I kind of hope they make it.

Everyone talks about Uber being a bet on self-driving cars but how do they “win”? Are they going to own and maintain an absolutely massive fleet of self-driving cars which they can’t afford? If they’re leasing self-driving cars from the owners, you’re right back where you started, paying people to use their cars. Or is the idea they somehow figure out self-driving technology, license it to Ford or whoever, and then s…

One model could be sticking to what they are doing now (payment/dispatch platform), but allowing the independent "investors" in rolling stock who also personally drive their investments to get slowly replaced by independent fleet operators who can be any scale, because the cars drive themselves.

But that certainly does not explain why Uber would try their hands at developing self-driving tech themselves (or why the company should be excessively valuable)

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#57

Post by jrockway »

cactus2093 wrote: post #40
jrockway wrote: post #2

The infrastructure they've built their business on is crumbling. Every so often I'm running late and think to myself "I should just drive" (by which I mean take an Uber). I check the driving times in Google Maps and it's as long as waiting for the subway and walking. There are just too many people on the roads for cars to be a competitive mode of transport; people only drive when there is absolutely no other option.…

Evil is a little extreme. The drivers are still doing it, so they clearly prefer giving you a ride to not. To add in some more anecdotal stories — the only times I really take a lot of Ubers and talk to the drivers are when traveling, and I’ve found the opposite. In Austin and Portland recently I talked to quite a few drivers that were happy with the job. And they all mentioned the flexible hours as a perk. One guy w…

> The drivers are still doing it, so they clearly prefer giving you a ride to not.

I'm not sure they've thought it through all the way. They're not sick today, so they don't need health insurance. Their car is new and doesn't need any major work, so the finances of eventually having to replace their car don't matter. Basically, I fear that we're getting the low prices we get by mortgaging the future. One day, your driver is going to need surgery and 3 months off to recover. One day, your driver's car is going to need a new engine. He goes into debt and suffers, all so that we can pay $3 less for a ride across town after a night of drinking. That does not sit well with me. We need to understand the true cost of someone's time and materials and make sure we pay that for the ride.

I'm not saying it's ever been good. Where Uber gets you now, it was people loaning you money to buy a medallion. Medallions are now worthless and guess who is left holding the bag? Not the regulators. Not the bank that made the loan. Just someone who wanted to work for himself now financially ruined; no way to send the kids to college, no way to afford medical care, no way to buy food or shelter in retirement.

I think I'll walk.

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#58

Post by YeahSureWhyNot »

adjkant wrote: post #21
YeahSureWhyNot wrote: post #14

uber is making money from almost all of the rides and they keep around 35% to themselves. uber has 22000 people (not including drivers) working for it while facebook has 37000. all of Facebook's apps and underlying tech have been tremendously evolving and developing for years which can't be said about uber's app or their tech in general. uber will become profitable when they shed at least half of their employees at w…

> uber is making money from almost all of the rides and they keep around 35% to themselves Is this documented anywhere?

yes ask any uber driver will show you a screenshot of Uber's cut. on short rides its actually pretty close to 50% in US

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#59

Post by goatinaboat »

jrockway wrote: post #57
cactus2093 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Evil is a little extreme. The drivers are still doing it, so they clearly prefer giving you a ride to not. To add in some more anecdotal stories — the only times I really take a lot of Ubers and talk to the drivers are when traveling, and I’ve found the opposite. In Austin and Portland recently I talked to quite a few drivers that were happy with the job. And they all mentioned the flexible hours as a perk. One guy w…

> The drivers are still doing it, so they clearly prefer giving you a ride to not. I'm not sure they've thought it through all the way. They're not sick today, so they don't need health insurance. Their car is new and doesn't need any major work, so the finances of eventually having to replace their car don't matter. Basically, I fear that we're getting the low prices we get by mortgaging the future. One day, your dr…

They're not sick today, so they don't need health insurance

In the U.K. they’re not sick today so they don’t need the NHS so they don’t mind that Uber pays no Employer’s NI.

Re: How Uber Got Lost

#60

Post by kpennell »

jen20 wrote: post #49
ENOTTY wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely agree re competitors. If you look at when Uber and Lyft left Austin, almost overnight, competitors willing to follow the local laws sprung up and soon began providing equivalent service. In my opinion, it's going to be impossible to establish a moat (aside from incumbency) in ridesharing (absent some kind of regulatory change heavily favoring incumbents). The second someone thinks they can do it better, th…

I was in Austin many times over the period that Uber and Lyft were not there. One of my takeaways was that building a mobile app which feels polished and actually works as advertised is _hard_ - not one of the local competitors managed it. Most of them didn’t even bother to distribute their app outside the US App Stores (a common issue with American companies) making it next to impossible to use for international vis…

random data point from Berlin...multiple US friends cannot use JUMP bikes (owned by Uber) using their USA uber apps. Something just doesn't work. So I think this must be hard for companies to get right.
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