I feel like I still don't understand negative yields, despite really trying to. Negative yields means that I put in $X (or euro/whatever germany is using) and I later am guarenteed no more than $Y out of the exchange, where Y < X. I am literally guaranteed to lose money. I could just hold on to my money, "keep it under my mattress" and still make a better ROI than bonds with negative yields. Why would anybody buy the…
> I still don't understand negative yields Safe assets sell a service: they’re a safe place to put your money. For this service, you pay a fee. There are other places to put your money, from cash to money market accounts to listed equities, but they aren’t safe. (They compensate for this unsafeness by promising you a return.)
Germany for First Time Sells 30-Year Bonds Offering Negative Yields
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Re: Germany for First Time Sells 30-Year Bonds Offering Negative Yields
#312This is the real reason the US yield curve looks the way it does. All other developed countries are selling negative or near zero government bonds. This has lead to huge international demand for US 30 year treasuries. https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds US treasuries are giving a greater yield than Italy or Spain for reference. Of course there will be huge demand. Central banks are no longer islands. They are part of…
Alternatively investors holding USD may believe that EUR will strengthen against USD over 30 years by more than: 0.5% + US_30year_treasury_bond_rate + risk_adjustment A negative interest rate is fine for US investors if you think the exchange rate will shift enough in your favour to cover your costs.
Re: Germany for First Time Sells 30-Year Bonds Offering Negative Yields
#313Earlier quoted context omitted.
Expecting the price of something to rise in the future is not the definition of a bubble. When people were selling houses in Detroit at the bottom of the housing crisis for $1000, the people buying them were expecting the value to rise in the future. It's almost like profiting off of fear not greed.
Expecting the price to rise when you know the underlying fundamentals don't support that price is the definition of a bubble. People buying houses in Detroit have an investment thesis that there will still be people living in Detroit and they will still need houses, and even more broadly, that there will be more people needing more houses than there were at the bottom of the housing crisis. They may be right or wrong…
If the price of something is higher than the "fundamentals support", that price will adjust because there are literally billions being traded every hour.
You could say that the price of land in the Everglades is set because of unsophisticated investors, with relatively little money at stake. They can't be compared.
Re: Germany for First Time Sells 30-Year Bonds Offering Negative Yields
#314Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the answer to both your questions is because there are costs to securely storing cash. That also makes cash risky compared to bonds, where you are not responsible for the security.
Why is everyone responding to the question under the same misinterpretation, that it means "cash" as in "physical banknotes" rather than "electronic Euros"? I know the principle of charity is hard sometimes, but come on.