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The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

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11–20 of 53 posts

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#11
In China this is common when everyone wants to do or appear to do Govt promoted ideas and schemes to get govt subsidy. [1]

If they do not act in time someone else will get it.

It works somewhat similar to startup world where one raise money with compelling story, just in this case instead of VC it's govt money. Some survive and become big, but most fail. Obviously some are outright fraud.

[1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/1976825/chin...

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#12
post #2

> 486 EV manufacturers registered in China That's an incredible amount. I can't imagine the complexity of managing engineering a car, manufacturing, sourcing everything needed. That's a lot of very ambitious people.

There were a similar number of car manufacturers in the US in the early 1900s. Many of them were essentially assemblers, bolting together parts made by other companies; most of them didn't survive long enough to release a second model.

It's a natural developmental stage in any emerging technology.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_man...

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#14

There's tons of performance bike manufacturers with minimal variation. Reason is its easy - not that many parts, parts easily configured and modular, easy to build, low maintenance. Maybe EVs are similar. lower complexity than fossil engines (fewer parts and complexity moves down the supply chain). Perhaps such a large number of vehicle producers is sustainable. The real ev companies are the companies making batterie…

That would be similar to the dozens of Android phone brands. But new industries sometimes start that way, but eventually shake out into an oligopoly.

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#15
A newer and better article on EVs in China: https://fortune.com/longform/electric-car-auto-industry-chin...

An interesting tidbit from this article: "One direct result of the meltdown was the Obama administration’s 2009 economic-stimulus plan, which included billions of dollars in support for U.S. clean-energy industries. That spending plan caught the attention of Beijing. And it led, in 2009, to what Ouyang describes as a “strategic discussion at high levels” in the Chinese government about how the country should proceed with its own clean-technology push. China’s State Council, the country’s top policymaking body, ultimately announced nine “strategic” industries, one of which was electric cars."

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#16

Note many of these are just forced by policies to "make" EV if they want to continue making traditional vehicles, others are just making money off of policies and subsidies, buyers are mostly forced to buy it due to license plate quotas. EVs' reputation in China is going downhill ever faster, it's been called "electric daddy". Urban area is extremely dense so it's lucky to find a place to charge where it hasn't been…

What's the opposite of "五毛党"?

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#17

There's tons of performance bike manufacturers with minimal variation. Reason is its easy - not that many parts, parts easily configured and modular, easy to build, low maintenance. Maybe EVs are similar. lower complexity than fossil engines (fewer parts and complexity moves down the supply chain). Perhaps such a large number of vehicle producers is sustainable. The real ev companies are the companies making batterie…

EVs are not that much less complex: interior is the same (hundreds of parts), suspension, AC, heat, wiper blades, brakes, etc. The engine is certainly different but I don't think that lowers the overall complexity of the vehicle into "anyone can do it" territory.

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#18
post #2

> 486 EV manufacturers registered in China That's an incredible amount. I can't imagine the complexity of managing engineering a car, manufacturing, sourcing everything needed. That's a lot of very ambitious people.

There were a similar number of car manufacturers in the US in the early 1900s. Many of them were essentially assemblers, bolting together parts made by other companies; most of them didn't survive long enough to release a second model. It's a natural developmental stage in any emerging technology. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_man...

I thought this was an interesting point even if "similar number" was an exaggeration by an order of magnitude. Then I clicked through. Holy shit. If anything it's an underestimate. Hundreds and hundreds of American car companies that lived for what looks like an average of two or three years, clustered around 1910. Seriously, worth taking a look.

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#19
post #2

> 486 EV manufacturers registered in China That's an incredible amount. I can't imagine the complexity of managing engineering a car, manufacturing, sourcing everything needed. That's a lot of very ambitious people.

EVs include e-scooters, electric tricycles, airport tarmac vehicles, etc.

Re: The $18B Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

#20
post #17

There's tons of performance bike manufacturers with minimal variation. Reason is its easy - not that many parts, parts easily configured and modular, easy to build, low maintenance. Maybe EVs are similar. lower complexity than fossil engines (fewer parts and complexity moves down the supply chain). Perhaps such a large number of vehicle producers is sustainable. The real ev companies are the companies making batterie…

EVs are not that much less complex: interior is the same (hundreds of parts), suspension, AC, heat, wiper blades, brakes, etc. The engine is certainly different but I don't think that lowers the overall complexity of the vehicle into "anyone can do it" territory.

It lowers the complexity sufficiently that traditional car makers in Germany are huffing and puffing about tens of thousands of jobs that won't be needed anymore.
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