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We are in the AOL days of social networking

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Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#21

Post by jaxn »

timdellinger wrote: post #16

As much as I agree with the overall premise (Facebook won't be king of the mountain forever), I'm still a bit unsure about what the driving force will be for users to go from Facebook to "open" alternatives. The driving force for leaving AOL was clear: there's a big, exciting internet out there that's more interesting and innovative than AOL chatrooms and AOL keywords, and the user base was also getting a little more…

Also, it would be foolish to think that Facebook isn't also aware of this analogy. I am certain they are looking at how AOL lost their stronghold and working to correct those mistakes. That is likely the driving force behind FB's willingness to participate in the open web (on their terms).

Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#22

Post by quanticle »

BarkMore wrote: post #4

What if social networking is like instant messaging? After many years, the proprietary instant messaging services have not been replaced with an open alternative. Open does not always win.

The fact that the proprietary protocols haven't been replaced by more open alternatives is largely irrelevant where the end-user is concerned. As long as the protocols have been reverse-engineered to the point where cross-platform tools are possible, it doesn't matter (to the user) whether the underlying protocols are open or closed.

There are now a plethora of instant messenger clients that allow for a single sign on to various instant messaging networks. I think we might see the same in the future for social networks. Facebook and Twitter will be relegated to the role that the various instant message protocols play in a multi-network client.

Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#23

Post by michaelchisari »

dasil003 wrote: post #18
michaelchisari wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't just about myself, though. There are approximately 50 other projects all working towards distributed social network. Some may be farther than others, but there's just too much interest from the open source world to say that Facebook's reign (or the reign of walled gardens, even) is immortal. And I would even wager that, once a protocol is adopted, that some of the smaller social networking sites will add s…

Sure, but how long will it take to topple Facebook? The article talks about 2011. I'd be willing to bet Facebook will still be the largest social network in 2020. 10 years in tech is an eternity, so I feel that that's a pretty strong assertion. To say that some kind of set of open social networking protocol will dominate in 15, 20, 30 years is a pretty open-ended prediction that's hard to argue with.

My prediction is that by around 2013/2014, Facebook will use an open, distributed protocol. Just like AOL eventually embraced SMTP and the web.

They will still be one of the biggest nodes (expect one of China's social networks to fight for that crown, however), but as time goes on, it will matter less and less. Just like AOL.

Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#24

Post by imaginator »

jaxn wrote: post #21
timdellinger wrote: post #16

As much as I agree with the overall premise (Facebook won't be king of the mountain forever), I'm still a bit unsure about what the driving force will be for users to go from Facebook to "open" alternatives. The driving force for leaving AOL was clear: there's a big, exciting internet out there that's more interesting and innovative than AOL chatrooms and AOL keywords, and the user base was also getting a little more…

Also, it would be foolish to think that Facebook isn't also aware of this analogy. I am certain they are looking at how AOL lost their stronghold and working to correct those mistakes. That is likely the driving force behind FB's willingness to participate in the open web (on their terms).

I'm sure they are aware of the analogy, but they are also enjoying the Goldman Sachs sponsored money-go-round and will eventually need to step off.

Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#26

Post by jonknee »

sewerhorse wrote: post #25
jonknee wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about running proprietary IM networks is "doing the right thing"?

Keeping them alive even though they don't rake in any serious money.

You can be assured they aren't doing it to be nice. For one, that would be against their fiduciary duty. IM networks are used by companies like AOL/Microsoft/Yahoo/Google to keep people coming back to their respective services (which is also why traditionally they weren't big on interoperability). They aren't making money, but do more good than the savings not running the services would bring.

Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#27

Post by bobz »

timdellinger wrote: post #16

As much as I agree with the overall premise (Facebook won't be king of the mountain forever), I'm still a bit unsure about what the driving force will be for users to go from Facebook to "open" alternatives. The driving force for leaving AOL was clear: there's a big, exciting internet out there that's more interesting and innovative than AOL chatrooms and AOL keywords, and the user base was also getting a little more…

I'm not sure the comparison is so precise that the outcome is predicted. There's no sure bet that Facebook will go the way of AOL.

I like this comparison more as a mitigating factor to closed-web alarmism. This is not the first time the open web has felt itself under attack. And if a big player DOES make moves to try to get in between the free flow of information we all know and love, there are historical examples of the free web fighting back, and winning!

I don't use Facebook, but I don't think it's evil... yet. But it's shown some scary tendencies. It's nice to know we've seen a company abuse it's massively dominant market share, and pay.

Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#28

Post by ryanwaggoner »

michaelchisari wrote: post #23
dasil003 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but how long will it take to topple Facebook? The article talks about 2011. I'd be willing to bet Facebook will still be the largest social network in 2020. 10 years in tech is an eternity, so I feel that that's a pretty strong assertion. To say that some kind of set of open social networking protocol will dominate in 15, 20, 30 years is a pretty open-ended prediction that's hard to argue with.

My prediction is that by around 2013/2014, Facebook will use an open, distributed protocol. Just like AOL eventually embraced SMTP and the web. They will still be one of the biggest nodes (expect one of China's social networks to fight for that crown, however), but as time goes on, it will matter less and less. Just like AOL.

Sorry, but no way. By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol. Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login. Next up will be allowing people to pay for things using Facebook credits with a single click.

Aside from that, what's the real benefit to an "open distributed social network" for normal people? Comparison to email isn't quite right, because email was still taking off back in the AOL days, but everyone is on Facebook now. So there's no need to worry about whether someone is on FB. Additionally, using FB doesn't wall you off in the same way that AOL did vs. the normal web. You can use some niche social network AND Facebook. I just don't see the big deal, and the vast majority of Facebook users don't either. There's just not a pain point that these open "solutions" solve.

I applaud your dedication to openness, but just because other things have gone open doesn't mean that social networking will, and definitely not in the next 3-4 years. Two things could kill Facebook: long-term technology trends, and Facebook itself. The former will take forever, and the latter seems unlikely, given most people's disregard for their own data privacy. In either case, FB will still be on top in 2020.

Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#29

Post by michaelchisari »

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #28
michaelchisari wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My prediction is that by around 2013/2014, Facebook will use an open, distributed protocol. Just like AOL eventually embraced SMTP and the web. They will still be one of the biggest nodes (expect one of China's social networks to fight for that crown, however), but as time goes on, it will matter less and less. Just like AOL.

Sorry, but no way. By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol. Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login. Next up will be allowing people to pay for things using Facebook credits with a single click. Aside from that, what's the real benefit to an "open distributed social network" for normal people? Comparison to email isn't quite right, because email was still taking…

By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol.

If Facebook pushes a truly distributed protocol, then I have no issue with that. I'll build a set of hooks for Appleseed to support that protocol, and I'm sure the other projects will do the same.

Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login.

That's not a distributed protocol, when you're dealing with a centralized login.

just because other things have gone open doesn't mean that social networking will, and definitely not in the next 3-4 years

Would you like to cast a wager on that? In all seriousness. I'll bet you $1 that by 2015, Facebook is either facing, or has faced, a major challenge from open standards in the social networking space.

Re: We are in the AOL days of social networking

#30

Post by taylorwc »

I agree with the sentiment in general, but I don't think the analogy is as solid as the author portrays. Facebook and Twitter, unlike AOL, have not only embraced, but in many ways encouraged other apps and social communities to be built around them, leverage their APIs, and have tried to be a unifying hub of activity, rather than the SOLE destination for their users.
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