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Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

shafyy.com

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Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#61

Post by neilv »

smallgovt wrote: post #53
not_a_cop75 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not taking sides, but your example is a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man fallacy.

It's not. He's directly refuting the claim made in the title of the blog post. That is: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs. In the title, the author is seemingly making the claim that all ex-post startup advice is BS. The commenter is debunking that claim by providing sound ex-post advice.

> directly refuting the claim made in the title of the blog post. That is: Most [...] In the title, the author is seemingly making the claim that all [...]

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#62

Post by drclau »

std_throwaway wrote: post #54
bovermyer wrote: post #33

When I was in my twenties, I was part of the early "life coach blogger" culture. Now that I'm almost in my forties, I realize everything I wrote back then was bullshit. Earnest, but bullshit nonetheless. I'm much more cynical, but I'm also much more likely to just do what seems right and figure out the rest as I go. I don't read "best practices" or advice articles anymore. This is not to say that there is nothing to…

Mastery is when you not only know the rules but also know which rules you can ignore in your particular situation.

"The Code is more what you call guidelines, than actual rules."

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#63

Post by [deleted] »

vikramkr wrote: post #37
smallgovt wrote: post #31

>> Do you think Musk copied that strategy from the business school he never went to? Do you think Brian Chesky of Airbnb heard that strategy from a friend? Maybe not, but that doesn't mean talking to other successful founders isn't extremely helpful. The best founders have multiple great ideas and not enough time to execute on them. If you want to increase your success rate, you should use feedback from other success…

Also, musk could totally have learned that strategy when he was in bschool, and chesky could totally have gotten the idea from a friend. Those are hardly implausible situations.

[deleted]

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#64

Post by vikramkr »

shafyy wrote: post #52
vikramkr wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, musk could totally have learned that strategy when he was in bschool, and chesky could totally have gotten the idea from a friend. Those are hardly implausible situations.

I agree, I don't now that for a fact. It's more a form of rhetoric to trigger interesting discussions. Seems to work ;-)

Sure, but it wasn't phrased as an open ended question, it was framed as rhetorical questions with a given answer that are evidence for your conclusion. I'm confused by the "bschool he never went to" bit as well. I'll grant that it sparks an interesting discussion, but I don't think that it does much to support your thesis as evidence.

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#65

Post by shafyy »

krm01 wrote: post #51
shafyy wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While data points do help, impactful startups often change the paradigm and how things are done. So, again, I don't think relying too much on emperical data points is good for founders. If you do, you'll rarely do something interesting and new.

As I mentioned, data-points can help steer in the right direction. I'm definitely not talking about disruption or changing paradigms. The same way a YC can't guarantee each startup will disrupt an industry. All they can do is help make something good, go to great faster.

Agreed.

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#66

Post by whatshisface »

std_throwaway wrote: post #48
whatshisface wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could find physical places where things seemed to change drastically one hour to the next, for example my dog. You can also find things in economics that don't change, like the laws of supply and demand in a true commodity market. Supply and demand in a true commodity market is a pretty narrow situation, but the early history of physics is full of narrow theories like Kepler's laws and the precursors to PV=nRT. I…

The emotions of your dog are not laws of nature. The "true market" is like "no true Scotsman" or "a closed system" or "a spherical cow on a frictionless plane". It assumes something that doesn't exist. In economics the influence of the things it assumes wrongly can be very significant. In physics wrong assumptions can also make the results wrong and a lot of work (or rather most work) is done on checking if all the a…

>The "true market" is like "no true Scotsman" or "a closed system" or "a spherical cow on a frictionless plane".

Come on, what is physics about then? ;)

Even today, systems like my dog are computationally infeasible to predict from the fundamentals, even though everything my dog does is a logical consequence of QED. That's why it is impossible to make progress without assuming a spherical cow and then traveling to every dairy farm in the world in search of the roundest heifer available.

In 400 years economists might still be unable to predict recessions, but I think by then the specific and very true theories of today will have had enough time to evolve into general laws that could predict recessions in principle.

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#67

Post by shafyy »

dang wrote: post #60

I think Paul Buchheit said it best in 2007: https://blog.daryn.net/post/32264049/paul-buchheit-limited-l... and http://redefine.dyndns.org/~andyr/blog/archives/2007/03/note... But see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=70808 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=70795 .

Damn right.

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#68

Post by vikramkr »

shafyy wrote: post #56
downandout wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s how I read it in the context of your premise. You seemed to be mocking the notion that Craigslist was a vital part of their success. I am not sure how else to interpret “....Hell, do you even think that freeriding off of Craigslist was their reason for success?”

I'm saying that they would have been successful with or without this marketing tactics. I am not saying that startups shoulnd't use free marketing opportunities.

Exactly, which means you're saying that this wasn't a vital part of their success, while the other commenter is saying the opposite, so I don't think you agree with the argument that doing things that don't scale is a critical part of their success right? Unless I'm misreading something.

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#69

Post by shafyy »

smallgovt wrote: post #53
not_a_cop75 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not taking sides, but your example is a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man fallacy.

It's not. He's directly refuting the claim made in the title of the blog post. That is: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs. In the title, the author is seemingly making the claim that all ex-post startup advice is BS. The commenter is debunking that claim by providing sound ex-post advice.

Ok come on guys. Obviously, tax law advice that is ex-post is not bs. Law advice is ex-post per definition, because the law needs to be written first. That's not what the post is about.

Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs

#70

Post by kd5bjo »

bovermyer wrote: post #33

When I was in my twenties, I was part of the early "life coach blogger" culture. Now that I'm almost in my forties, I realize everything I wrote back then was bullshit. Earnest, but bullshit nonetheless. I'm much more cynical, but I'm also much more likely to just do what seems right and figure out the rest as I go. I don't read "best practices" or advice articles anymore. This is not to say that there is nothing to…

I’ve read a lot of time management/productivity books, and there seem to be only two things all of the authors agree on: write stuff down, and continuously tweak your system.

The latter is usually mentioned offhand in the preface, as the author wants to deliver a fait accompli instead of just some tips and tricks.

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