Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
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Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#2Not all ex-post theories are BS. For example, I slam my hand in the drawer and theorize, "Slamming hands in drawers hurts; one should not do it." That theory is pretty solid. It doesn't cover all the edge cases, but following it is better than not following it.
There are lots of startup theories that are equally solid, despite being ex-post. I know a startup that didn't pay payroll tax for a couple years, and it ended badly. The resulting advice is pretty obvious.
There are theories about how to hire, how to find customers, how to negotiate deals. These theories might not apply in every single case, but you should definitely start by knowing what worked in the past.
This post picks a couple of unsupported startup theories, but it's sort of like criticizing physics for the 1% of reality it can't explain and ignoring the 99% it can.
Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#3> Do you think Brian Chesky of Airbnb heard that strategy from a friend?
I'm pretty sure he heard it from Paul Graham.
Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#4Not all ex-post theories are BS. For example, I slam my hand in the drawer and theorize, "Slamming hands in drawers hurts; one should not do it." That theory is pretty solid. It doesn't cover all the edge cases, but following it is better than not following it. There are lots of startup theories that are equally solid, despite being ex-post. I know a startup that didn't pay payroll tax for a couple years, and it ende…
Maybe theories about what not to do are more solid.
Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#5Not all ex-post theories are BS. For example, I slam my hand in the drawer and theorize, "Slamming hands in drawers hurts; one should not do it." That theory is pretty solid. It doesn't cover all the edge cases, but following it is better than not following it. There are lots of startup theories that are equally solid, despite being ex-post. I know a startup that didn't pay payroll tax for a couple years, and it ende…
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Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#6The problem with startup theory is, that the theory that actually works is mostly the "don't do this".
Only once in a blue moon does they prove to be wrong, but they are also the least valuable as many of the are quite obvious.
The part of startup theory most people are interested in "the do's", most of the time doesn't work as they are highly contextual.
Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#7From the article:
”Do you think Brian Chesky of Airbnb heard that strategy from a friend? Hell, do you even think that freeriding off of Craigslist was their reason for success?”
Yes, freeriding off of Craigslist was the reason for their early success, without which their later success was not possible. Having a good model means absolutely nothing without some ability to market it, especially in the marketplace space. Initial momentum is what causes these businesses to either succeed or fail.
The idea of using free ways to get your startup initial momentum is absolutely not BS.
Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#8I have had a couple of managers over the years who had dreams of writing a book, and with the exception of one, they were all mostly wrong about the secrets of their success. They didn't have any awareness of how their team and especially their leads supported them. Responses varied from humor to hurt feelings.
Ask the people who work for them why the team was successful. They'll probably have very different opinions.
Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#9Not all ex-post theories are BS. For example, I slam my hand in the drawer and theorize, "Slamming hands in drawers hurts; one should not do it." That theory is pretty solid. It doesn't cover all the edge cases, but following it is better than not following it. There are lots of startup theories that are equally solid, despite being ex-post. I know a startup that didn't pay payroll tax for a couple years, and it ende…
> "Slamming hands in drawers hurts; one should not do it."
This is a fact and don't think this is what the author is trying to say. I guess he's more focused on the kind of theories which people throw around as some sort of self-evident truth, when in fact it's a personal truth which they learned through trial and error.
But I guess there's a point in learning from some of these "self-evident" truths (this is more rare though)
Re: Most startup theory is ex-post, therefore bs
#10From the article: ”Do you think Brian Chesky of Airbnb heard that strategy from a friend? Hell, do you even think that freeriding off of Craigslist was their reason for success?” Yes, freeriding off of Craigslist was the reason for their early success, without which their later success was not possible. Having a good model means absolutely nothing without some ability to market it, especially in the marketplace space…
> The idea of using free ways to get your startup initial momentum is absolutely not BS.
Agree, and that's also not what I said :-)