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Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

npr.org

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Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#51

Post by DanBC »

creaghpatr wrote: post #35
vesinisa wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, this document was drafted by Boris Johnson's pro-Brexit government. E: Apparently it was his predecessor, but it's nevertheless not drafted by Labour.

It’s right there in the article: >The Financial Times quoted government insiders who rebutted the document, saying it is not a realistic scenario for a no-deal Brexit and pointing out that it was written under the leadership of Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, and does not reflect the preparations spearheaded by Johnson that are now underway. >”This document is from when ministers were blocking what needed to be d…

Your use of the word "opposition" is confusing because in the UK that would mean the party not in power, it wouldn't mean people in the same party.

Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#53

Post by dx87 »

jfk13 wrote: post #16

Scaremongering headline; I thought NPR was better than that. The document doesn't "predict" any such thing. It considers a number of worst-case scenarios of things that could happen, but that's a far cry from predicting that every worst-case scenario will actually come to pass.

The article says these aren't the worst case scenarios.

>this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios — not the worst case."

Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#54

Post by DanBC »

jfk13 wrote: post #16

Scaremongering headline; I thought NPR was better than that. The document doesn't "predict" any such thing. It considers a number of worst-case scenarios of things that could happen, but that's a far cry from predicting that every worst-case scenario will actually come to pass.

This isn't the worst case scenario document. That hasn't been leaked yet.

Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#55

Post by gumby »

mikedilger wrote: post #28
te_chris wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a govt risk assessment document, not just “politics”. Assuming you’re a brexiteer....what exactly is the positive case for brexit now? Because no one I can hear is making it, merely saying it has to happen, like a visit to one’s in laws that destroys the economy and fractures society.

The case for Brexit that I've heard from the beginning has not changed, so if you honestly haven't heard it, it goes something like this: the primary goal is to retain sovereignty while Britain still can; to arrest the slow but inexorable yielding of power to unelected officials of the E.U.

> slow but inexorable yielding of power to unelected officials of the E.U.

...despite the fact that no EU rules can go into force in any EU state without that state passing a law to make it happen within its borders.

And despite the rather pointless European Parliament, the real decisions are made by the elected heads of member state governments, when they meet as the European Council.

So after Brexit the new boss will precisely be identical to the old boss.

But sure, why not believe that the 350 mil a week is being stolen by a bunch of offshore bureaucrats.

Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#56

Post by Havoc »

>and does not reflect the preparations spearheaded by Johnson that are now underway.

All the more reason to be alarmed. The guy seems like a complete loose cannon - more likely to cause additional chaos that help.

Really starting to wonder whether this isn't one big geopolitical campaign to short an entire country.

Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#57

Post by sleavey »

burtonator wrote: post #40
sleavey wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You joke, but asking the uninformed public to vote on such deep constitutional matters was what got the UK into this mess. Barely anyone in the public was qualified to give their judgement on the merits of continuing inside the EU versus the concept of being out of it. The question was then morphed by the Leave side into "do you think we should stop immigrants coming to the UK?", with the consequences we can all see…

It's like voting over whether vaccines work or not... Some things should be left to experts. This is the major criticism of direct democracy.

Indeed. A recent poll was quoted on yesterday's "Any Questions?" show on BBC Radio 4 by a Brexiteer, which apparently asked the public "should MPs represent their own views or those of their constituents?". Some small number of voters - I forget, but it was around 7% - thought they should represent their own views and the rest thought those of their constituents. This was, in the Brexiteer's view, evidence that MPs delaying Brexit in any form was anti-democratic given that 52% voted for "it" (where "it" was sadly not defined).

Thing is, we elect MPs exactly so they can express their views in parliament. They're supposed to be experts, or at least they are given resources to consult experts on matters that affect their constituents. They are resolutely not for representing their constituents' views - that's why they publish a manifesto of what they want to do and we are asked to vote on it every 5 years. Of course, part of an MP's job is to consult their constituents, but they are not bound whatsoever to represent the majority view of their constituents. Apparently 93% of the public apparently don't understand this; the same public that were asked to decide whether to stay in the EU or not...

Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#58

Post by kaybe »

Simulacra wrote: post #7

If true, would this not point towards avoiding such unions in the future?

This close interconnection of countries is one of the main points and goals of the EU.

We should always remember why it was made, coming out of two horrible wars and after hundreds of years of smaller wars - not (only) to make life a little easier, not to redistribute money and not to boost economies, but to make wars impossible as much as can be done by interweaving their economies and citizens.

In regards to this point, project EU has been highly successful. We're now far enough removed from these wars and most witnesses dead that we have to actively work on keeping the memory and reason alive.

Our thoughts and dreams seem to become smaller somehow, lately. I hope it will not take another massive disaster to change that.

Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#59

Post by jashmatthews »

beaner wrote: post #19
don_neufeld wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won’t recover, that’s not how trade works.

EU is more than just a trade agreement and there is nothing preventing trade agreements between the UK and the EU from being developed post-brexit.

After leaving, the UK will be in a weak negotiating position. Recession is almost certain, and even using an existing trade deal like CETA as a basis will take multiple years to negotiate because of the current UK red lines, like controlling their own immigration policy.

Canada had to adjust their immigration policy for several EU countries to get CETA. The UK will be over a barrel and will have to make major concessions.

Whether you're pro EU or not this situation is a total balls-up.

Re: Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' of U.K. Infrastructure

#60

Post by Asooka »

throwaway122379 wrote: post #41
ealexhudson wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it just points to a. Having a reasonable exit process (the default of two years makes no sense) and b. The public having the patience to understand 40+ years of cooperation can't be rolled back in a matter of months.

The 2 year window and article 50 was an addition from UK ironically Also they did not have to lodge the article 50 letter when they did, they could have spent years preparing and figuring out what it is exactly they want to accomplish. Finally the EU gave an extension twice now for them to figure out what they want, instead of doing that UK govt doubled down on stupid.

> UK govt doubled down on stupid

Seeing all that happen, I'm convinced we should abolish voting. Instead of voting for prime minister, etc. they should be chosen at random from the general population the same way we do jury duty. Monte Carlo government. It can't be any worse than the current government and since it's random selection you can't have the process corrupted.

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