The Dubai Job • Hacker News Board

Re: The Dubai Job

#11

Post by wyclif » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 2:03 PM UTC

tome wrote: post #6

It seems like the operation was tactically a great success, but strategically a failure. The agents seem to have been very well trained and carried out their task very effectively. There has been serious negative fall-out, though, including the unmasking of a number of important agents, and worsening ties with Dubai and the countries whose passports were forged.

I'd say you have it backward. Tactically, mistakes were made. But strategically this mission was a huge success: they eliminated their target-- the goal of the whole operation.

Re: The Dubai Job

#12

Post by kylelibra » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 2:08 PM UTC

wyclif wrote: post #10

Al-Mabhouh's number was clearly up. The article sensationalises the diplomatic damage between Israel and the US/UK-- it's called blowback and the Mossad was willing to pay the price if mistakes were made. Operations this complex rarely come off flawlessly, but it was very well done, "good enough" you might say. With their objective accomplished and their agents disappeared before Hamas knew what was going on, the mis…

Wired has some additional follow up information on the subject. It definitely reinforces your point that his number was up.

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/01/dubai-assassination...

Re: The Dubai Job

#13

Post by yuvadam » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 2:14 PM UTC

This is a very interesting article.

Ronen Bergman is a very well known journalist here in Israel, but this article sheds new light on details which haven't been made public up until now.

The fact that head of the Caesarea unit offered to resign following the Dubai operation has not been known up until now.

Re: The Dubai Job

#14

Post by badmash69 » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 2:14 PM UTC

Downvote me if you will, but I do not think this article belong on the front page of Hacker news. It is a interesting illuminating article but it belongs on Reddit or even Slashdot.

Re: The Dubai Job

#15

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 2:15 PM UTC

wyclif wrote: post #10

Al-Mabhouh's number was clearly up. The article sensationalises the diplomatic damage between Israel and the US/UK-- it's called blowback and the Mossad was willing to pay the price if mistakes were made. Operations this complex rarely come off flawlessly, but it was very well done, "good enough" you might say. With their objective accomplished and their agents disappeared before Hamas knew what was going on, the mis…

[deleted]

Re: The Dubai Job

#16

Post by johnyzee » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 2:17 PM UTC

badmash69 wrote: post #14

Downvote me if you will, but I do not think this article belong on the front page of Hacker news. It is a interesting illuminating article but it belongs on Reddit or even Slashdot.

Don't forget to flag it.

Re: The Dubai Job

#17

Post by praptak » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 2:24 PM UTC

wyclif wrote: post #11

tome wrote: post #6

It seems like the operation was tactically a great success, but strategically a failure. The agents seem to have been very well trained and carried out their task very effectively. There has been serious negative fall-out, though, including the unmasking of a number of important agents, and worsening ties with Dubai and the countries whose passports were forged.

I'd say you have it backward. Tactically, mistakes were made. But strategically this mission was a huge success: they eliminated their target-- the goal of the whole operation.

It's hard to tell without knowing the whole picture. For example - how bad was the actual reaction of the countries whose passports were forged? I mean real actions like curbing cooperation with the Israeli intelligence, not the formal gestures.

Re: The Dubai Job

#18

Post by forensic » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 2:28 PM UTC

wyclif wrote: post #11

tome wrote: post #6

It seems like the operation was tactically a great success, but strategically a failure. The agents seem to have been very well trained and carried out their task very effectively. There has been serious negative fall-out, though, including the unmasking of a number of important agents, and worsening ties with Dubai and the countries whose passports were forged.

I'd say you have it backward. Tactically, mistakes were made. But strategically this mission was a huge success: they eliminated their target-- the goal of the whole operation.

Considering all the details about their own operations that were leaked, I bet they wish they had spent more time to get it perfect.

It's not like Israel is incapable of perfect assassinations. It's just a question of dedicating enough resources - time, money, manpower.

This has not only exposed agents and caused a diplomatic mess, it has exposed operational details:

- the hacking of hotels

- the use of disguises and surveillance teams

- the tempo at which is it conducted

- pattern of movements

- division of labour

- use of unknown poisons

- the austrian switchboard

Mossad will have to tweak all of these elements now in order to retain obfuscation.

Re: The Dubai Job

#19

Post by sjs » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 3:34 PM UTC

praptak wrote: post #9

This is interesting: "Any operative trying to reach a colleague—whether in the hotel down the street or at the command post in Israel—dialed one of a handful of numbers in Austria, from which the call was then rerouted to its destination. But since dozens of calls were made to and from this short list of Austrian numbers over a period of less than two days, the moment that the cover of a single operative was blown an…

If they had some footage of the spys making phone calls and had precise times for that footage they would have been able to match up calls with the cell towers in the area.

Re: The Dubai Job

#20

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jan 05, 2011, 3:34 PM UTC

praptak wrote: post #9

This is interesting: "Any operative trying to reach a colleague—whether in the hotel down the street or at the command post in Israel—dialed one of a handful of numbers in Austria, from which the call was then rerouted to its destination. But since dozens of calls were made to and from this short list of Austrian numbers over a period of less than two days, the moment that the cover of a single operative was blown an…

[deleted]