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The Population Bust

foreignaffairs.com

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Re: The Population Bust

#31

Post by newvoiceoldphne »

pascalxus wrote: post #4

Relying on a larger and larger population to keep supporting endless growth is not sustainable. I know this is unpopular, but: We need to find a way to sustainably live on this planet with a reasonably sized population. People keep talking about how the next generation needs to support all the debt and extravagances of the past generations but this unethical. the next generation was born without first being asked whe…

Sure it is. It's only unsustainable if you restrict the population to a limited area (ie - Earth)

There may come a time when we don't NEED a larger population to support increasing specialization, but until then a broader population base is needed to foster growth in technology.

Not to mention that those 'one in a billion' history changing genius happen in larger numbers when we have more billions...

Re: The Population Bust

#32

Post by newvoiceoldphne »

toasterlovin wrote: post #27
esarbe wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if it is; the availability of pretty much perfect contraceptives negates that to a large degree. The use of contraceptives is cultural, not biological. So we'll hit a replacement problem long before natural selection has time to catch up. The replacement issue has already real implications, this will become much more obvious in the course of the next 30 years. Any relevant change on the population size the prope…

> Even if it is; the availability of pretty much perfect contraceptives negates that to a large degree. No it doesn’t. My wife an I both wanted to have large families, even when we were children. How will contraceptives affect people’s basic motivations and life goals? > Any relevant change on the population size the propensity for fertility can have; it will take (three, four, five , ...) generations to manifest. Fi…

Except for the millions that died.

Re: The Population Bust

#33

Post by newvoiceoldphne »

Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

I think we need to slow the pace of immigration, to preserve our culture.

Re: The Population Bust

#34

Post by justaguy500 »

ttugrq wrote: post #25
mandelbrotwurst wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you want there to be more Americans? Is there some advantage to more people living in the geographical region? Are you hoping that it will allow certain aspects of the culture to spread / persist? If the latter, would it be as good to cultivate those things at home and allow them to spread on their own merit? Or do you prefer for more people to exist under the national banner for its own sake?

I'm an American and I want there to be enough nurses and orderlies in American nursing homes when the time comes that I need them.

not a population problem, wage problem

Re: The Population Bust

#37

Post by tabtab »

esarbe wrote: post #21
toasterlovin wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be at some point though. Fertility is moderately heritable.

Even if it is; the availability of pretty much perfect contraceptives negates that to a large degree. The use of contraceptives is cultural, not biological. So we'll hit a replacement problem long before natural selection has time to catch up. The replacement issue has already real implications, this will become much more obvious in the course of the next 30 years. Any relevant change on the population size the prope…

My friend's sister has a lot of children despite being relatively poor because being pregnant makes her feel good. It's a high. Such a trait will probably spread.

Re: The Population Bust

#38

Post by tabtab »

Nyandalized wrote: post #19
Aperocky wrote: post #3

Soon it won't matter what the population is, automation will sweep through all industries, what you see today in automation is what people 30 years ago see in computers - slow, cumbersome, expensive. That's going to change.

Computers are part of automation, just like chainsaws. It's not a new phenomena. It's been sweeping through all industries the whole time. The thing is, efficiency unveils new possibilities, and possibilities induce demand, consumption. We are much more efficient than 10 years ago, but also consume at a much faster pace.

Past patterns are not always a sufficient predictor of future patterns. Some patterns may even last for hundreds or thousands of years, then disappear due to technological or cultural changes. As Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Re: The Population Bust

#39

Post by sambal »

newvoiceoldphne wrote: post #33
Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

I think we need to slow the pace of immigration, to preserve our culture.

You don’t have a culture if it doesn’t change, you have an ideology.

Re: The Population Bust

#40

Post by klyrs »

newvoiceoldphne wrote: post #31
pascalxus wrote: post #4

Relying on a larger and larger population to keep supporting endless growth is not sustainable. I know this is unpopular, but: We need to find a way to sustainably live on this planet with a reasonably sized population. People keep talking about how the next generation needs to support all the debt and extravagances of the past generations but this unethical. the next generation was born without first being asked whe…

Sure it is. It's only unsustainable if you restrict the population to a limited area (ie - Earth) There may come a time when we don't NEED a larger population to support increasing specialization, but until then a broader population base is needed to foster growth in technology. Not to mention that those 'one in a billion' history changing genius happen in larger numbers when we have more billions...

Exponential growth is unsustainable in a 3D universe with a finite speed of light. Space is not a magical savior
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