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Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

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Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#51
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for your question! I believe my main post or the responses might have been unclear. If so, my apologies. But your understanding isn't correct. Other companies are not insuring your downside. We are the only counter party you have. The problem is if a recession happens, then a lot of our properties actually decline in value. As a result, we might not be able to pay you back. So to make sure we can pay you back…

He was talking about a recession. Which might happen. (since people feel like it is getting closer) If you know a stock which actually goes up in a recession, please let me know!

Options.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#52
post #39

Why did you decide on this business model (essentially downside insurance paid for by equity if I'm understanding it right) over something simpler like, say, subscription access to a newsletter? What's to stop someone from signing up for the list and just buying a property on their own? (i.e. What perks are you offering that make it worth doing the deal through you? Negotiations? Acting as a buyer's agent?) As a data…

Thanks for your question! We decided to do this model, because we originally sold our predictions and analytics to larger investment funds, but we noticed that when our predictions came true, we left so much money on the table. The funds were making millions of dollars on one deal and they were never going to give us any percentage of that. It was also really hard to convince a lot of these people who were operating…

I did. We were out-of-towners at the time, so I would use that to build a strike list of 10-20 properties. We would fly in and do as many visits as we could schedule in a weekend.

Currently at 8 doors (that SFH, a tri, a quad), but now that we live in the area I typically just run one or two at a time in a spreadsheet instead of cranking through 100 in one go.

I find the list much more interesting than the insurance (I'm a big boy who can do my own risk evaluation). I only invest in one market, though (Atlanta), so not sure I would pay $100 for a nationwide list.

How do your internal valuations compare to the Zestimates? Zillow's data is better than nothing, but I know a lot of folks track their net worth through things like Mint/Personal Capital who might be interested in a more accurate daily/weekly/monthly valuation tool. I feel like that's how Zillow got their initial users ("You can look up the price of any house!") and if you could figure out a way to expose that data you might be able to get good leads out of it.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#53

You mention that you hedge your exposure to market downturns through deep OOTM options -- would it be safe to interpret this as your company taking out OOTM puts on various REITs/ETFs? If so, I'm wondering about a couple things: 1. Do you hedge on REITs/ETFs with a local presence in the areas your properties are located in? If so, is there any liquidation risk of the REIT/ETF in the event of a major downturn that cou…

Yes, your interpretation is correct!

1. we hedge on both broader market REITs/ETFs as well as localized ones, depending on how many contracts we have in the local market.

2. Because we hedge on both, the probability of this is very low. Since a more granular hedge is an imperfect hedge due to the nature of these REITs/ETFs, it might not cover 100% of the localized recession. However, it should cover a large portion of it. So, our company will be on the hook for that remainder percentage.

We can cover it in 2 ways. Number 1, just use our own capital. Number 2, the profitable contracts in other areas not hit by recessions should be able to offset the ones hit by the localized recession.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#54
post #44

Do you use all public data like census, BLS etc. or do you have paid data as well?

We do not use census data, because they are extremely outdated. It's part of the reason we can make accurate predictions before other companies can, since they do look at census data.

We use alternative data, which has recently become popular in the finance industry. For example, if you ask executives at a big company what their profit outlook is, they will always be optimistic, otherwise, their stock might decline and they may panic the market.

If you waited until the quarterly announcement, then you would be finding out at the same time as everyone else, and it's delayed information.

However, some people have found that you can more accurately predict a company's outlook on their quarterly performance by monitoring job boards and see how many open positions the company is hiring for. This allows people to gain insight and act before the rest of the market catches on.

We use the same approach but for real estate. For example, if you monitor the number of french bull dogs in a neighborhood, you can accurate predict median income values for that neighborhood before any official statistics. This is because those dogs are very expensive, so someone willing and able to spend a few thousand dollars on a pet tend to have a higher economic background.

We do use some paid sources such as satellite imagery and some data sources require you to pay for their api like our weather data vendor.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#55
post #34

Against my better judgment, I'm gonna comment that I hate this. This is certainly a good business/investment opportunity. If your algorithms are any good you'll make a lot of money, and you'll help your customers make money. My problem with Lofty is that it is bad for society. Fundamentally, this is gentrification-as-a-service. You're driving additional demand to neighborhoods at inflection points, and if it works we…

You're absolutely right about this, and it is something we have and are considering everyday. I will be honest and say, at the moment, we do not have a perfect solution yet. One of the things we looked into before starting the company was a paper that mentioned the Portland project, which showed that gentrification and displacement are not always synonymous. There, the neighborhood was completely gentrified, but the…

In many of these poor areas being gentrified, people don't own their homes and they rent because they're poor and don't have the credit to buy a home. That's why gentrification is a problem - landlords increase rent because the area has higher demand, and effectively price people out of their homes.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#56

Do you have any type of financial insurance to backup of your claim that you will cover losses if the property sells for less? I'm not talking about having the money available to cover the losses, but actually being around at all to honor that claim. What happens if I buy today and your company goes to hell in two years? How can I trust this transaction with a horizon of 3 years without fully knowing how are you goin…

My first reaction was: If this company goes under (like 90% of YC startups) and you took this sort of arrangement, then you are @#$!'d (all caps).

Well over 50% of YC startups across all batches have either exited or are still alive.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#57
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're absolutely right about this, and it is something we have and are considering everyday. I will be honest and say, at the moment, we do not have a perfect solution yet. One of the things we looked into before starting the company was a paper that mentioned the Portland project, which showed that gentrification and displacement are not always synonymous. There, the neighborhood was completely gentrified, but the…

> There, the neighborhood was completely gentrified, but the locals benefited greatly, because many of their home prices increased in value But they lose mobility as their family needs change. New kids and need a larger home? You can sell yours, but the differential between a 2br and 4br is now outside your price range due to gentrified prices. Also, it depends heavily on tax laws. Long time California home owners ar…

You have a very valid point here. Our hope is that we can help them find new homes as well. Most of the homes selected by our algorithm tend to be very affordable, so a larger segment of the market can take advantage of appreciating home price. The goal is to make sure that not only existing wealthy people can benefit from rising home values.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#58
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This might not be the case everywhere in the country, but typically, the seller is responsible for the agent fees. This means that if we recommend an agent for our customer, who is the buyer, that agent is actually paid for by the seller. We have the relationship, because we do have customers who are very inexperienced and this would be their first purchase. So, a lot of them still want to have to ability to talk to…

Is it possible to recommend a real estate agent to you?

Sure! We are always happy to add to our list of preferred agents that we recommend to customers who are unsure of which agent to go with.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#59
It’s an odd business model. I think if you had any faith in your predictive ability you would just raise and run the fund yourself so as not to leave money on the table. This sounds like all the “crypto trading as a service” scams that have come up over the past few years. YC should avoid getting involved in trading businesses they don’t understand. Just my 2c.

Re: Launch HN: Lofty AI (YC S19) – Real estate investment with alternative data

#60
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for your question! I believe my main post or the responses might have been unclear. If so, my apologies. But your understanding isn't correct. Other companies are not insuring your downside. We are the only counter party you have. The problem is if a recession happens, then a lot of our properties actually decline in value. As a result, we might not be able to pay you back. So to make sure we can pay you back…

He was talking about a recession. Which might happen. (since people feel like it is getting closer) If you know a stock which actually goes up in a recession, please let me know!

Buy put or sell calls on an asset that's highly correlated with the overall economy. This is honestly the least controversial claim the OP is making.
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