I like the framing of tech debt as value-neutral; whether it's good or bad depends on how you use it (just like financial debt). Of course, all else being equal, you'd rather have zero debt. One higher level consideration that's particularly relevant for early-stage startups, is that you often simply don't have time to build the ideal "tech-debt free" solution. Focusing on 80/20 solutions almost necessarily involves…
But in both those cases, the pain is known up front. The discussion here seems to be no one knows what X is, nor Y, but it's expected that Y > X by some large amount that you may or may not have to pay off. Crazy!