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The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

nationalgeographic.com

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Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#131

Post by bipson »

latchkey wrote: post #111
dragonwriter wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not saying that this disease isn't a problem, but I have hard time believing it is a catastrophic problem for all bananas. It's a catastrophic problem for the existing commercial banana industry, not for “all bananas”.

> the existing commercial banana industry You mean in the US or elsewhere? The US is only 25% of the total market. While a big number, there are far larger consumers of bananas. 'it is important to note that only 15 percent of banana production is traded in the international market'. It sounds like people might have to learn to eat another type of banana. It has already happened when the market switched from Gros Mic…

You didn't listen it seems:

There is no commercially exploitable banana for export that we know of yet. Going from Gros Michel to Cavendish required rethinking how we farm, harvest, ship, ripen, sell bananas. Cavendish could simply not be shipped like Gros Michel before.

You said yourself that Cavendish is a "boring" banana. This might be true. But all the great, tasty, small bananas you are talking about cannot be shipped anywhere by the means we know of today. That is, every market outside of the banana growing regions cannot have these, they will be mush, rotten or inedible once they reach the shelves.

Apart from that, I agree, we will (hopefully) eventually find a replacement and adjust our methods and taste. I'm all open for new banana tastes. But the problem is real, the economy as a system (farmers, logistics, consumer) does not know of an alternative so far. Even if you think different.

But I guess you could be very rich if you have an alternative ready and are willing to transport it and selling it in EU/US/Canada.

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#132

Post by bipson »

mort96 wrote: post #112
chewbacha wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If memory serves, bananas are only profitable as a monoculture. In addition to bananas being triploidy and unable to seed, it’s basically impossible to grow and establish the seedless variety of plant by any other means other than cloning. It’s a pretty unique fruit and it’s economy has tumbled in the past already got these very reasons.

Why do bananas have to be seedless?

People hated the seedy variants. It was more seeds than fruit and messy to eat. Note: you could not eat the seeds it seems (large and hard)

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#133

Post by dragonwriter »

latchkey wrote: post #111
dragonwriter wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not saying that this disease isn't a problem, but I have hard time believing it is a catastrophic problem for all bananas. It's a catastrophic problem for the existing commercial banana industry, not for “all bananas”.

> the existing commercial banana industry You mean in the US or elsewhere? The US is only 25% of the total market. While a big number, there are far larger consumers of bananas. 'it is important to note that only 15 percent of banana production is traded in the international market'. It sounds like people might have to learn to eat another type of banana. It has already happened when the market switched from Gros Mic…

> You mean in the US or elsewhere?

I mean the existing commercial banana industry dependent on the present scale of output and sales to the developed world.

> The US is only 25% of the total market.

Not talking about just the US.

> it is important to note that only 15 percent of banana production is traded in the international market'.

And, e.g., the domestic production and consumption of East African bananas (a sizable share of the global total production) isn't part of the international commercial trade at issue (and isn't affected by losing the Cavendish since East African bananas are an entirely different set of varieties.)

> It sounds like people might have to learn to eat another type of banana. It has already happened when the market switched from Gros Michael to Cavendish.

Gros Michel and the cultivars Ithe Cavendish subgroup are quite similar in taste and commercial properties (Gros Michel is a bit thicker skinned and more transport hardy than most Cavendish varieties as I understand.) Which is why it's what the industry largely turned to when Gross Michel became nonviable.

Cavendish was the low hanging fruit of alternative bananas. > Given that there is 1000 varieties of bananas out there, that is a marketing problem, not a catastrophic problem.

There's far fewer that are plausible replacements for Cavendish in large scale trade even before considering whether they are Panama disease resistant and other production and transport features. Cooking bananas that would, were they traded alongside existing commercial varieties, compete more with plantains than Cavendish bananas aren't a plausible replacement.

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#134

Post by dragonwriter »

bipson wrote: post #131
latchkey wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the existing commercial banana industry You mean in the US or elsewhere? The US is only 25% of the total market. While a big number, there are far larger consumers of bananas. 'it is important to note that only 15 percent of banana production is traded in the international market'. It sounds like people might have to learn to eat another type of banana. It has already happened when the market switched from Gros Mic…

You didn't listen it seems: There is no commercially exploitable banana for export that we know of yet. Going from Gros Michel to Cavendish required rethinking how we farm, harvest, ship, ripen, sell bananas. Cavendish could simply not be shipped like Gros Michel before. You said yourself that Cavendish is a "boring" banana. This might be true. But all the great, tasty, small bananas you are talking about cannot be s…

> But all the great, tasty, small bananas you are talking about cannot be shipped anywhere by the means we know of today

I'm fairly sure I've seen labelled-as-imported dwarf red and apple bananas in California, but certainly the transport properties of most plausible replacements by taste are inferior to Cavendish (and I don't even know if any of them are Panama disease resistant, and if they aren't, they aren't plausible replacements.)

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#135

Post by ptah »

Retric wrote: post #116
chr1 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have potential to become the first widely used GMO, as it will be easy to add immunity to this fungus with a small CRISPR edit.

Many GMO’s are very common already. 1/2 of all soybeans are GMO.

hopefully it won't lead to catastrophe https://medium.com/the-physics-arxiv-blog/genetically-modifi...

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#136

Post by croon »

latchkey wrote: post #85
onion2k wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That said, I saw huge fields of farmed trees literally everywhere there (as well as in VN). I don't think they are in any real danger of disappearing like these articles say. It is very sensationalist news. "I can't see the problem with my own eyes so I don't think there's a problem." is exactly the sort of thinking that leads to climate denial and anti-vaxx nonsense. Unless you've spent a lot of time and effort unde…

Wow, that is a stretch to loop my thinking in with both of those movements. I am not even close to that nonsense. Of course I'm no expert, but this whole banana disappearance story has been going on for many years, yet we still have bananas. There is not even close to a shortage of bananas. It reminds me of the Helium is running out stories. Let me also remind you that the story is talking about a specific strain and…

> Of course I'm no expert, but this whole banana disappearance story has been going on for many years, yet we still have bananas. There is not even close to a shortage of bananas. It reminds me of the Helium is running out stories.

Right now you are discarding his (albeit hostile phrasing) argument by using the exact argument he was criticizing.

"Years" is a really short time. Same as with climate deniers that can't abstract away their perception of time long enough (pun unintentional, but noted) to understand that "urgent" could mean 5 years, in the scope of a hundred years or more.

To put it in perspective it's like telling someone that if they don't break or turn their car they will go off the road, and they after a second discard it as false since they're still on the road. But they're still 1 second closer to crashing.

I'm not informed on the subject, but your logic is flawed.

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#137

Post by krageon »

pfdietz wrote: post #124
krageon wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point I outlined in my post is one that I have seen people who are not vocal advocates of GMO utter. It's a perfectly regular piece of reasoning and not "irrational subtext". I'd go so far as to say the irrational subtext here might be the fact that it is seen as some sort of personal failing to question something which would be very convenient if it was entirely safe (and was known to be safe). Just because it i…

No, it's an irrational subtext, since it "proves too much". Taken at face value, it stops all technological change. Since technological change has been enormously successful, the argument is obviously bullshit. The sly move is to try to apply this "don't do it" principle to only GMOs (or some limited set of hot button topics that includes GMOs). This selective application is where the unreason slips in.

You have reduced my reasoning to ridiculousness by extrapolating it to a degree that I find to be frankly insane. My point was that we do not understand the field well and thus should not make sweeping changes because we can't understand the consequences. My next point was that this is a coherent stance even if it gets in the way of easy progress.

Frankly from your response I cannot find a reason to change my mind on this, because you have mostly avoided the subject by attacking my reasoning with your own flawed logic. I find it ironic that you are saying that people who advocate a more conservative stance on GMO are unreasoning or spouting "obvious bullshit" when what is in fact happening is that you are doing exactly what I already addressed: Being upset that this reasoning stops progress in a field you don't understand well, because it is inconvenient.

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#138

Post by mieseratte »

disillusioned wrote: post #96

Fun banana facts: Bananas are the most-sold item at most grocery stores and, notably, Wal-Mart. Bananas also have the highest standard deviation in terms of predicting if a given (known) consumer will purchase bananas in a given store run. (At least as compared to other food products and consumables.) When predicting a consumer's shop, it's generally pretty easy to make a highly educated guess about their purchasing…

> Bananas also have the highest standard deviation in terms of predicting if a given (known) consumer will purchase bananas in a given store run. (At least as compared to other food products and consumables.) When predicting a consumer's shop, it's generally pretty easy to make a highly educated guess about their purchasing activity and, thus, to project volumes for products. But bananas defy that wisdom, except that people in aggregate buy a lot of them. Someone who buys bananas reliably every week for months will randomly stop for months, and then start again, for no perceivable rhyme or reason. Bananas aren't seasonal purchases like berries or corn or other fruits or vegetables. Bananas also tend to be a high purchase at gas stations and convenience stores.

Where can I find and read more things like this?

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#139

Post by sondr3 »

neiman wrote: post #101
disillusioned wrote: post #96

Fun banana facts: Bananas are the most-sold item at most grocery stores and, notably, Wal-Mart. Bananas also have the highest standard deviation in terms of predicting if a given (known) consumer will purchase bananas in a given store run. (At least as compared to other food products and consumables.) When predicting a consumer's shop, it's generally pretty easy to make a highly educated guess about their purchasing…

> Bananas are the most-sold item at most grocery stores and, notably, Wal-Mart. In which country? The US? This can't be globally true..

Same thing when I worked in a convenience store in Norway, bananas were far and away the most sold item, even during very busy seasonal peaks.

Re: The fungus that devastates the Cavendish banana has now arrived in Latin America

#140

Post by iacutone »

sn41 wrote: post #6

Bananas are the prime cautionary tale against monoculture. The number of native breeds which are now gone for the sake of promotion of one particular breed leads to less resilience against disease and pests. Just in my corner of India, there are various varieties. [1] However, in the U.S., the only variety you often get to see is the insipid Cavendish, whose only merit seems to be shelf-life. If you travel in the tro…

Platanos de la isla in Peru have an interesting flavor.
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