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Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

nytimes.com

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Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#31

Post by majia »

londons_explore wrote: post #13
kenneth wrote: post #5

So… a few thoughts. I live in HK (having semi-recently moved here from the Bay Area, right before this all flared up). First, there's a ton of misinformation out there. Few sources have entirely accurate information, but the best English-language resource I've found on the subject is the local paper South China Morning Post (scmp.com). They have pretty accurate and unbiased live reporting of the protests as it flares…

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

It's more likely that the protest causes huge damage to HK economy, and HK people start to get tired of it. At some point people may decide to take economic incentives from Beijing and become another city in China with some superficial autonomy status.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#32

Post by loyukfai »

culturestate wrote: post #27
Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d". In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will. It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

This will never happen under the current regime, if for no other reason than it would embolden Taiwan to "declare" independence and give the world cover to acknowledge it. Taiwan is far too strategically important to China to allow that.

Agree. Don't count on PRC under the current leadership to think anything remotely like that.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#33

Post by loyukfai »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #30
Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d". In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will. It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

Why would China even consider "ejecting" a part of its territory that they fought over for a long time to finally get back? Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy of the Chinese government(s) since 1912... And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme of Chinese national psyche.

For some perspective, in 1912 the Communist Party of China wasn't even a thing.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#34

Post by kenneth »

acd10j wrote: post #23
kenneth wrote: post #5

So… a few thoughts. I live in HK (having semi-recently moved here from the Bay Area, right before this all flared up). First, there's a ton of misinformation out there. Few sources have entirely accurate information, but the best English-language resource I've found on the subject is the local paper South China Morning Post (scmp.com). They have pretty accurate and unbiased live reporting of the protests as it flares…

Can you rely on South China Morning Post (scmp.com) to be unbiased as their current owner is Chinese Alibaba Group ? Apart from mild criticisms, I don't think Alibaba group can afford to publish against Chinese government.

> Can you rely on South China Morning Post (scmp.com) to be unbiased as their current owner is Chinese Alibaba Group ? Apart from mild criticisms, I don't think Alibaba group can afford to publish against Chinese government.

Not sure why your comment was killed, because I think it's a valid question. But since it was, responding here.

Yes, they're owned by Alibaba. I happen to know some SCMP employees which gives me confidence that they're still editorially independent. They of course have a pretty pro-status-quo stance, and I don't recommend on relying on them entirely as your only source of information, but I don't believe China has any editorial influence.

(Also important to note Alibaba isn't necessarily in the CCP's best graces lately.)

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#35

Post by pimmen »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #20
kenneth wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're still pretty far away from that. China has a lot to lose on the international stage if anything like that were to go down. They would much rather have the local police deal with it (since the local police is aligned with Beijing) and keep plausible deniability. If anything, I think the threats of involving the army are more about (1) deterring supporters and (2) planting the seeds of this idea that this…

I'm not sure we can say that the police is "aligned with Beijing". Whatever one's opinion of what the protesters are demanding they are breaking the law and rioting (as per Hong Kong law that dates back from British rule), and many of their actions are simply not acceptable. They are really not helping themselves. The police will respond to that anywhere.

The reaction from a Westerner is ”wow, this is nothing compared to all the crazy shit we had to do to get democracy, and now with the democratic institutions and independent justice systems in place, definitely worth it”.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#36

Post by loyukfai »

culturestate wrote: post #24
kenneth wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're still pretty far away from that. China has a lot to lose on the international stage if anything like that were to go down. They would much rather have the local police deal with it (since the local police is aligned with Beijing) and keep plausible deniability. If anything, I think the threats of involving the army are more about (1) deterring supporters and (2) planting the seeds of this idea that this…

Having lived in Hong Kong (and China) for a long time, I think you're wrong. I doubt very much that protesters will be shot in the streets or anything so drastic, but the city is very close to having the PLA openly deployed to "back up" the HKPF.

FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF.

Personally I think the PLA option is a non-starter at the moment. HK for all its bads is still vitally important to the Chinese economy especially during the current trade war with the USA.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#37

Post by mytailorisrich »

loyukfai wrote: post #33
mytailorisrich wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would China even consider "ejecting" a part of its territory that they fought over for a long time to finally get back? Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy of the Chinese government(s) since 1912... And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme of Chinese national psyche.

For some perspective, in 1912 the Communist Party of China wasn't even a thing.

Yes, for Chinese these territorial issues are bigger that the Communist Party. In Western countries they would be called "bi-partisan" or "cross-parties" because there is a national consensus on them.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#38

Post by loyukfai »

kenneth wrote: post #34
acd10j wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you rely on South China Morning Post (scmp.com) to be unbiased as their current owner is Chinese Alibaba Group ? Apart from mild criticisms, I don't think Alibaba group can afford to publish against Chinese government.

> Can you rely on South China Morning Post (scmp.com) to be unbiased as their current owner is Chinese Alibaba Group ? Apart from mild criticisms, I don't think Alibaba group can afford to publish against Chinese government. Not sure why your comment was killed, because I think it's a valid question. But since it was, responding here. Yes, they're owned by Alibaba. I happen to know some SCMP employees which gives me…

Am not following SCMP closely so better not comment on their editorial independence rashly... However, this may give you some additional perspective: https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/11/13/i-will-no-longer-write...

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#39

Post by Mengkudulangsat »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #30
Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d". In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will. It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

Why would China even consider "ejecting" a part of its territory that they fought over for a long time to finally get back? Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy of the Chinese government(s) since 1912... And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme of Chinese national psyche.

Which I find to be irrational.

Stamford Raffles "took" Singapore from the Malay sultanate in the 1820s. In 1963, we finally got it back, but let them go barely two years later due to ingrained cultural differences that manifested during the meantime.

With the rise of so many capable cities on the mainland, perhaps pursuit of unification is just not worth the trouble anymore.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#40

Post by danieltillett »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #30
Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d". In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will. It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

Why would China even consider "ejecting" a part of its territory that they fought over for a long time to finally get back? Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy of the Chinese government(s) since 1912... And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme of Chinese national psyche.

Unity of China as a concept is far older than 1912.
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