Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 142 posts

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#21

Post by Mengkudulangsat »

londons_explore wrote: post #13
kenneth wrote: post #5

So… a few thoughts. I live in HK (having semi-recently moved here from the Bay Area, right before this all flared up). First, there's a ton of misinformation out there. Few sources have entirely accurate information, but the best English-language resource I've found on the subject is the local paper South China Morning Post (scmp.com). They have pretty accurate and unbiased live reporting of the protests as it flares…

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d".

In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will.

It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#22

Post by baybal2 »

zeristor wrote: post #2

What are the chances of the unrest spreading into China? One hears of sporadic unrest through China, I take the economy hasn’t yet faltered so people aren’t too disgruntled. I take it this qualifies as “Interesting Times”

> What are the chances of the unrest spreading into China?

There are hundreds of small riots happening all around China nearly every month.

I don't think this will make a difference, unless it happens in numbers comparable to number you see in HK.

Paradoxically, Xi's rule saw less riots than during Hu's term, when "something serious" was going on almost monthly.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#23

Post by acd10j »

kenneth wrote: post #5

So… a few thoughts. I live in HK (having semi-recently moved here from the Bay Area, right before this all flared up). First, there's a ton of misinformation out there. Few sources have entirely accurate information, but the best English-language resource I've found on the subject is the local paper South China Morning Post (scmp.com). They have pretty accurate and unbiased live reporting of the protests as it flares…

Can you rely on South China Morning Post (scmp.com) to be unbiased as their current owner is Chinese Alibaba Group ? Apart from mild criticisms, I don't think Alibaba group can afford to publish against Chinese government.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#24

Post by culturestate »

kenneth wrote: post #16
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

I think we're still pretty far away from that. China has a lot to lose on the international stage if anything like that were to go down. They would much rather have the local police deal with it (since the local police is aligned with Beijing) and keep plausible deniability. If anything, I think the threats of involving the army are more about (1) deterring supporters and (2) planting the seeds of this idea that this…

Having lived in Hong Kong (and China) for a long time, I think you're wrong. I doubt very much that protesters will be shot in the streets or anything so drastic, but the city is very close to having the PLA openly deployed to "back up" the HKPF.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#25

Post by ephemeralism »

londons_explore wrote: post #13
kenneth wrote: post #5

So… a few thoughts. I live in HK (having semi-recently moved here from the Bay Area, right before this all flared up). First, there's a ton of misinformation out there. Few sources have entirely accurate information, but the best English-language resource I've found on the subject is the local paper South China Morning Post (scmp.com). They have pretty accurate and unbiased live reporting of the protests as it flares…

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

Why would they do this and not just continue to use riot police and tire the protesters out, as has recently been done with success in France?

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#26

Post by iforgotpassword »

zeristor wrote: post #2

What are the chances of the unrest spreading into China? One hears of sporadic unrest through China, I take the economy hasn’t yet faltered so people aren’t too disgruntled. I take it this qualifies as “Interesting Times”

As others said, zero. I check out CCTV reporting about this every couple days, and they deliberately show only scenes where police gets attacked by the protesters (called terrorists). Or sometimes against uninvolved people accidentally ending up in the protests. Also defacement of government symbols helped turn the sentiment against the protesters. Otoh that helps see how most western media is also biased in their reporting (what footage they show) but the Chinese definitely take the cake here.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#27

Post by culturestate »

Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #21
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d". In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will. It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

This will never happen under the current regime, if for no other reason than it would embolden Taiwan to "declare" independence and give the world cover to acknowledge it. Taiwan is far too strategically important to China to allow that.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#28

Post by toxik »

kmlx wrote: post #3
zeristor wrote: post #2

What are the chances of the unrest spreading into China? One hears of sporadic unrest through China, I take the economy hasn’t yet faltered so people aren’t too disgruntled. I take it this qualifies as “Interesting Times”

0 to minimal chance. the brainwashing happening in mainland china makes those protesters into terrorists supported by foreign governments. that’s the level where china is at right now.

I think in the mind of the Chinese mainlanders, HK was always supposed to be a part of China proper, just like Taiwan. These riots are seen as childish at best, and at worst, a threat to the LEGITIMATE rule of the central Chinese government. Again, this is their view on things. If that's what you think, then of course you'd be for a harsher response, they're attacking what you think is right and true.

Of course, in the West, we don't admit the CCP as truly rightful rulers of China for many reasons, but mainly because they're not democratically elected. There is no refusing, there is no dissent. The Chinese aren't dumb, they see that too, but they see it as the price you pay for orderliness. And maybe it is? This, coincidentally, is also used to justify censorship: it is the price you pay for running a large society effectively. And maybe it is. We see censorship on our side of the world too, in the name of combatting fake news, child pornography and terrorism.... Exactly how you justify it in China.

The CCP's largest issues all stem from not truly being of the people and thus lacking that pressure valve: unchecked corruption, and an inability to uphold ethical standards. We've seen this with authoritarian regimes time and time again, with the Nazis, with the Soviet, and now with the CCP.

This was a rant about nothing, thanks for reading.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#29

Post by PlasticTank »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #20
kenneth wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're still pretty far away from that. China has a lot to lose on the international stage if anything like that were to go down. They would much rather have the local police deal with it (since the local police is aligned with Beijing) and keep plausible deniability. If anything, I think the threats of involving the army are more about (1) deterring supporters and (2) planting the seeds of this idea that this…

I'm not sure we can say that the police is "aligned with Beijing". Whatever one's opinion of what the protesters are demanding they are breaking the law and rioting (as per Hong Kong law that dates back from British rule), and many of their actions are simply not acceptable. They are really not helping themselves. The police will respond to that anywhere.

Funnily enough tyrants don't usually listen unless forced, this is what a fight for freedom looks like. Some things are more important than convenience and money.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#30

Post by mytailorisrich »

Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #21
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d". In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will. It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

Why would China even consider "ejecting" a part of its territory that they fought over for a long time to finally get back?

Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy of the Chinese government(s) since 1912...

And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme of Chinese national psyche.

Post reply on HN