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Why I'm not buying Facebook

finance.fortune.cnn.com

21–30 of 106 posts

Re: Why I'm not buying Facebook

#21
post #8

1. because this article is on CNN and our formula for getting visitors is to find a popular current event and take a controversial or contrary point of view on it. 2-5. see #1

That's a rather simplistic view of the article, don't you think?

You really think that none of the reasons are genuine, all just made up as linkbait?

Re: Why I'm not buying Facebook

#22
"It's hard to see why, though: DST got in at a $10 billion valuation in May 2009. Facebook's user base has more than doubled since then. So its valuation should…quintuple?"

Good point, according to Metcalfe's Law [1], it should actually only have quadrupled.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfes_law

Re: Why I'm not buying Facebook

#23
I remember how excited average investors were at the prospect of a new way of going public when Google announced its innovative auction IPO. "Finally, Wall Street banks wouldn't be able to crowd to the front of the line!" Their public auction, their "don't be evil", and their continued use of their power for good -- like their trick to get openness principles adopted during the wireless spectrum auction -- all exemplified a company thinking and acting like a good corporate citizen at all levels.

Contrast this to FB. They are actually cozying up to Wall Street rather than eschewing them. "Don't be evil" was replaced with a series of privacy gaffes, a flurry of lawsuits surrounding the company's founding, and a CEO who has called early users dumb fucks. It's sad to see how Google's pioneering isn't being emulated by the next big tech company.

Re: Why I'm not buying Facebook

#24
Facebook is very similar to vmware. I expect it would follow a similar path in stock price. Currently vmware is trading at 140 p/e ratio. People are afraid to miss the next Google, Microsoft, etc.. SO they are willing to buy the latest trend. If facebook made $2 a year off 300M users they would have a market cap of 60B with a 100 P/E ratio.

Re: Why I'm not buying Facebook

#25
post #11

One reason why I'm not buying Facebook: I don't have $2mil lying around. Another one; Why is Mark so reticent to IPO? Because he loses control? Or because that means making the numbers public, and people will see just where the money is going. Either way, if the CEO doesn't want to go public and may be forced to, that is not good.

Not good for whom? Potential investors or Facebook (the company)?

In any case, I think it will be quite interesting to see just how much revenue facebook is generating from it's various sources.

Re: Why I'm not buying Facebook

#26
post #16
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when Goldman Sachs went public in 1999, only 12% of their shares went public. The remainder stayed with the partnership. I'm not sure (or able to quickly find) the current ownership, but it's certainly not ALL publicly traded. So $50 billion would get you about one-fourteenth of Goldman. Not half. Edit: grossly mis-remembered my facts. 511M shares include both stockholders and the shares of the former part…

This is not a correct understanding of "market cap". Goldman's market cap includes the value of ALL shares, not just the shares available for public trading.

You're right; I thought they had created a new entity when they went public, and retained the partnership as the parent of the C-Corp.

But you're correct, there's only one entity, and the 511M shares represent both stockholders and (former) partners.

http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_20/b3629102.htm

Re: Why I'm not buying Facebook

#28
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when Goldman Sachs went public in 1999, only 12% of their shares went public. The remainder stayed with the partnership. I'm not sure (or able to quickly find) the current ownership, but it's certainly not ALL publicly traded. So $50 billion would get you about one-fourteenth of Goldman. Not half. Edit: grossly mis-remembered my facts. 511M shares include both stockholders and the shares of the former part…

If I had $50 billion on this day to buy part of 1 company, I'd take Goldman no question. A few years ago if you got Facebook stock at a lower valuation, sure that would make you a lot of money. But if Facebook makes $2 billion now, and they already have 25% of the internet users as members, where does the growth come from? 50b valuation is right given their current revenues, but they're not going to go from 25% to 10…

While I'm sure it's a factor, I'm not convinced that Facebook's growth needs involve having to increase their userbase in that manner. There are still many ways to monetize the existing one since I don't believe they've done that very efficiently yet.

Re: Why I'm not buying Facebook

#30
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when Goldman Sachs went public in 1999, only 12% of their shares went public. The remainder stayed with the partnership. I'm not sure (or able to quickly find) the current ownership, but it's certainly not ALL publicly traded. So $50 billion would get you about one-fourteenth of Goldman. Not half. Edit: grossly mis-remembered my facts. 511M shares include both stockholders and the shares of the former part…

If I had $50 billion on this day to buy part of 1 company, I'd take Goldman no question. A few years ago if you got Facebook stock at a lower valuation, sure that would make you a lot of money. But if Facebook makes $2 billion now, and they already have 25% of the internet users as members, where does the growth come from? 50b valuation is right given their current revenues, but they're not going to go from 25% to 10…

They can sell more services to the same customers.
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