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GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

wsj.com

121–130 of 248 posts

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#121
post #16
post #3

> Later, [GM] found some success with the Chevy Volt, a plug-in hybrid that runs on electric power but also has a backup gas engine. The car was too expensive, though... As a happy Volt owner (I've yet to met one who didn't love theirs), I can't help but wonder if "expensive" is code for "lost service revenue because the thing is too dang low maintenance and reliable". ;)

No. Expensive is code for, "We lost money selling them, and only bothered because we got tax write-offs." In short, expensive means expensive. They cost a lot to make.

in effect, when the ZEV credit rules changed so GM which has a ZEV credit printer in the Bolt no longer needed the Volt and this also coincided with their decision to drop the Cruze and other smaller sedans. From 2018 and onward the credit a PHEV could get is sufficiently lower than before.[1]

GM rushed the Bolt out because also ending in 2017 were two ZEV related credit (CARB credits by another name) traits that were easily exploited, banking them for future use and double dipping by getting credit in a non CARB state for a sale there plus the CARB credit.

The key thing to note about EV sales, how to tell if a manufacturer is serious about selling them. The common figure of twenty to twenty five thousand units is bandied about as where the CARB value falls off after. As in, selling into that maximum allows GM and others to exploit the credit system to the extent it covers all possible sales for their other vehicles. This number will slowly increase but when they say "we cannot sell more because we cannot get batteries" don't believe them

[1] https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/california-and-western...

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#122
post #98

My parents' house does not have a garage or a driveway, how exactly will the only-full-EV future work for them? Where are they supposed to charge?

Charging infrastructure is still weak, but gas pumps weren't built overnight. Maybe this is a space for some new startup to get involved in?

In older cities there are sometimes still garages that one can rent a bay in. I understand that this was not uncommon at one point: you didn't keep your car at your house. Someone else stored it, maybe even a service station and you rang them up when you wanted to take it out.

Perhaps an arrangement like that will come around again in dense areas.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#123
post #58

I'm trying to replace my 2012 SUV with another SUV. I've been looking all over for a plug in hybrid SUV, and there aren't any good ones. I want the plug in hybrid because 95% of the time we do less than 30 miles locally, but once in a while we drive a couple hundred. I would be fine with an all electric SUV with a decent range, but those don't exist either. The model X is not sufficient, and is also terrible for ever…

XC90 or XC60 T8 are decent plugin hybrid SUVs. Alternatively the X5e isn't bad. Both will do about 30 miles on battery only.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#124

To fully electric. As the article says, both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. Now they're shifted that effort over to electric because the incentives are better for them. The only companies trying to make hybrids for real are Toyota and Honda. Everyone else is just pumping out low effort compliance vehicles. It is hardly surprising that these vehicles haven't been hugely successful. I'd lov…

You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. The biggest cost of an electric car is the battery; and the cost of batteries is dropping very fast. Everything else is significantly cheaper in an electric vehicle except for the cost of the battery. (Tesla used to say there's a "Moore's Law" of battery…

>> sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car.

Maybe, but the limitations of electric vehicles still mean it is an apple and oranges comparison. Electric cars are still a long way off in terms of range, towing capacity, utility and winter performance. They might seem great in California, especially as a second car, but they are still a long long way off from replicating how many non-rich people use their vehicles.

We don't all live in SF. Personally, I'd need a stable 1000km/day range capacity, in winter/-30, in mountains, pulling several hundred pounds of people/stuff, before I'd even consider electric for my one and only car. Price is beside the point. I'm starting to think that zero net emission tech (diesel from air etc) might catch up before all-electric becomes the widespread standard.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At a supercharger/equivalent. We're getting to the point where EVs have enough range that they can be charged on nearly the same schedule as a gas car is refueled.

Recharging after the same intervals isn't enough. How long does it take to charge? Do I have to spend an hour standing around at the "pump" each week, whereas a gas pump takes two minutes?

You won't. Instead of needing to make an extra stop at the gas station, your grocery store will probably install a charger.

Saves you the trip to the gas pump!

(BTW, the Whole Foods closest to me has a CCS charger.)

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. The biggest cost of an electric car is the battery; and the cost of batteries is dropping very fast. Everything else is significantly cheaper in an electric vehicle except for the cost of the battery. (Tesla used to say there's a "Moore's Law" of battery…

>> sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. Maybe, but the limitations of electric vehicles still mean it is an apple and oranges comparison. Electric cars are still a long way off in terms of range, towing capacity, utility and winter performance. They might seem great in California, especially as a second car, but they are still a long long way off from replicating how many non…

I'd say the breakeven point for electric vehicles has already come. Electric cars have yet to hit this breakeven point, but waves of people have modeswitched to eBikes and electric scooters to get out of snarled traffic, shorten their commutes and lower their cost of transport

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#127
post #12

To fully electric. As the article says, both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. Now they're shifted that effort over to electric because the incentives are better for them. The only companies trying to make hybrids for real are Toyota and Honda. Everyone else is just pumping out low effort compliance vehicles. It is hardly surprising that these vehicles haven't been hugely successful. I'd lov…

> both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. At one point I was completely fascinated with the Fiat 500e. Here was an electric car that was stylish, quirky, and could be had on the used market at a great price. But as I got further into it I realized that FCA hated producing this car. Its only reason to exist is to allow them to produce more pollutant vehicles as a regulatory balance. And if it…

Sergio Marchionne, FCA's CEO until he passed away a few months ago, used to say that the company would lose approx. $6,000 for every Fiat 500e sold, but that they had to sell some of these anyway.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#128

To fully electric. As the article says, both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. Now they're shifted that effort over to electric because the incentives are better for them. The only companies trying to make hybrids for real are Toyota and Honda. Everyone else is just pumping out low effort compliance vehicles. It is hardly surprising that these vehicles haven't been hugely successful. I'd lov…

What about the Korean makes? I have the impression that Kia/Hyundai are giving things a reasonable go, but are maybe just a little late to it. Is this wrong? (A friend has a Niro and I've been impressed with it for the price.)

Agree, my impression is their plug-in hybrids are very capable, but late-to-the-game

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#129
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is what I don't understand, but maybe it's because my wife and I are a one car and mostly public transit oriented family. What I want: A hybrid electric with ~40 miles of battery and a 300mi gas tank for longer trips What Auto Manufacturers assume (I'm guessing): 2 car households where one is 100% electric and the other 100% gas. Seems to me like the plug in hybrid is the best of all worlds. Everyone can u…

Yeah the manufacturers don't seem to aim for the single car household in America. I guess they assume most of us either live in the burbs and have two cars or live in the city and have no cars. The truth is where I live I'm just too far to have single car. Most of the time we only need one car, but we have just enough cases of my wife and I needing to go two different places that it doesn't make sense to rent or Uber…

What's wrong with the Pacifica Hybrid? The Chrysler reputation?

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#130

To fully electric. As the article says, both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. Now they're shifted that effort over to electric because the incentives are better for them. The only companies trying to make hybrids for real are Toyota and Honda. Everyone else is just pumping out low effort compliance vehicles. It is hardly surprising that these vehicles haven't been hugely successful. I'd lov…

You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. The biggest cost of an electric car is the battery; and the cost of batteries is dropping very fast. Everything else is significantly cheaper in an electric vehicle except for the cost of the battery. (Tesla used to say there's a "Moore's Law" of battery…

The breakeven for electric vehicles has already come, but not in the form of a multi-ton car.

When I bike around Seattle, there are a plethora of Radpower eBikes with various modifications, either for towing, or hauling kids. Cost, traffic and the convienence of parking has driven this modeswitch, as you can park near anywhere and rarely have blocking traffic like in traditional cars.

Electric Scooters are also extending the range people are willing to walk, making short trips much more convenient, and leveraging distant transit much easier.

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