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GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

wsj.com

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Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#111

Post by gwbas1c »

Someone1234 wrote: post #2

To fully electric. As the article says, both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. Now they're shifted that effort over to electric because the incentives are better for them. The only companies trying to make hybrids for real are Toyota and Honda. Everyone else is just pumping out low effort compliance vehicles. It is hardly surprising that these vehicles haven't been hugely successful. I'd lov…

You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet.

The biggest cost of an electric car is the battery; and the cost of batteries is dropping very fast. Everything else is significantly cheaper in an electric vehicle except for the cost of the battery.

(Tesla used to say there's a "Moore's Law" of battery capacity, which is that every 7 years the capacity doubles for the same cost.)

Everyone (in the auto industry) knows this, it's just a matter of deciding how to plan for this. Either you can make a lot of hybrids for a decade; or you can sell EVs side-by-side with conventional cars.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#112

Post by navigatesol »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #22
yardie wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. At one point I was completely fascinated with the Fiat 500e. Here was an electric car that was stylish, quirky, and could be had on the used market at a great price. But as I got further into it I realized that FCA hated producing this car. Its only reason to exist is to allow them to produce more pollutant vehicles as a regulatory balance. And if it…

Funny enough, FCA is paying Tesla billions of dollars in ZEV credits so FCA can still sell cars in Europe. EDIT: Please buy that Tesla and support a company who actually cares about selling EVs. https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/8/18300393/tesla-fiat-chrysl...

>FCA is paying Tesla billions of dollars in ZEV credits

That's an interesting interpretation. FCA is buying ZEV credits in the market, of which Tesla has a large supply. Would you describe Facebook buying servers as "Facebook paying Intel billions so they can keep selling advertisements online"?

>Please buy that Tesla

Every time Tesla comes up and there's negativity, there are accusations of "paid short-sellers", which I am not. What about your disclosure? You own a Tesla, are you a shareholder? Do you have a financial interest in people buying the cars? Is it fair to be constantly flooding these forums with Tesla rumours, often from vapid fan sites, when you stand to benefit?

Why is acceptable from one side, and not the other?

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#113

Post by toomuchtodo »

navigatesol wrote: post #112
toomuchtodo wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny enough, FCA is paying Tesla billions of dollars in ZEV credits so FCA can still sell cars in Europe. EDIT: Please buy that Tesla and support a company who actually cares about selling EVs. https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/8/18300393/tesla-fiat-chrysl...

> FCA is paying Tesla billions of dollars in ZEV credits That's an interesting interpretation. FCA is buying ZEV credits in the market, of which Tesla has a large supply. Would you describe Facebook buying servers as "Facebook paying Intel billions so they can keep selling advertisements online"? > Please buy that Tesla Every time Tesla comes up and there's negativity, there are accusations of "paid short-sellers", w…

Sure, happy to oblige. I usually add the disclaimer to my posts, but forgot to add it here. Added to my HN profile as well. Thanks for keeping me honest! If you refer to my comment history, I don't believe I've ever mentioned "paid short sellers".

Disclaimer: TSLA investor, Model S/X owner. If I ask you to buy a Tesla, it is not to help my stock, but to help move the world to electric transportation faster. If you find a better EV product, I encourage you to buy it regardless of manufacturer. I will hold my Tesla stock all the way to zero, and climate change keeps me up at night (seriously, it's terrifying; Rome is burning and the band plays on). Any sources I cite regarding Tesla have been and will continue to be from reputable online publications.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#115

Post by ben7799 »

flavoie wrote: post #84
freehunter wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For comparison, you can get a Certified Pre-Owned BMW 3-series for similar money. At that price point you need to be buying the car specifically because it's electric, not because it's a good value.

If you add up yearly fuel cost (with real number you make, not the official one), maintenance cost ($ and time wasted). Not sure it hold true. With my commute, suburban+urban with high traffic. Definitely not true. The bolt will be way cheaper. It will be also quicker, even if it was not meant to be.

A bolt vs a 3-series is probably the same situation as the detailed comparisons we've seen from limo operators comparing the Tesla Model S vs MB S-class, BMW 7-series, Lincoln Town car, etc.. In those comparisons the Tesla proved to be 1/5-1/4 the maintenance cost per 100,000 miles.

Nobody buys a BMW in the US for good value when you factor in maintenance costs & overall TCO. The only reason you buy one is cause you like the driving dynamics. That's a perfectly fine reason IMO.

It doesn't seem there are any limo operators who are going to operate a Bolt and rapidly drive it to 400k-500k miles to find out just how reliable it is. But I really suspect a Chevy could be less of a hassle to maintain than a Tesla.. since GM is a much more established manufacturer and has a long built out dealer/service network it's hard for me to believe it could be worse than Tesla.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#116

Post by gwbas1c »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #47

Well, I love my Volt. Maybe it will be a collectors car some day. Amazing piece of engineering. I charge at work and at home and use gas about once every two months. I don't have "range anxiety", I have "range requirements"; no way I'm going on an 8 hour drive to go skiing in the Adirondacks or in Vermont with a pure electric. A pure BEV won't meet my needs.

I drove my Model 3 from Cannon (very far in Northern New Hampshire) to Cape Cod (south of Boston) just stopping to charge once.

BTW, if you can do a minivan, my other car is a Pacifica plugin hybrid. It has some problems charging off of 240 volts, but it does about 30 miles on a charge. I almost never use gas.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#117

Post by spenrose »

cjensen wrote: post #31
Someone1234 wrote: post #2

To fully electric. As the article says, both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. Now they're shifted that effort over to electric because the incentives are better for them. The only companies trying to make hybrids for real are Toyota and Honda. Everyone else is just pumping out low effort compliance vehicles. It is hardly surprising that these vehicles haven't been hugely successful. I'd lov…

Used Nissan Leafs are unusually cheap. Generally around $12-14K from Carmax. Yes the battery is already a bit worn out, but the price cut is very worth it.

FWIW, my 2015 Leaf still goes 90 miles on a charge.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#118

Post by gwbas1c »

throw0101a wrote: post #26

My parents' house does not have a garage or a driveway, how exactly will the only-full-EV future work for them? Where are they supposed to charge?

I think you'll see a lot of "40 minute" chargers at places like grocery stores, or anywhere where you already park for about an hour on a regular basis.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#119

Post by cmrdporcupine »

aaomidi wrote: post #97
cmrdporcupine wrote: post #47

Well, I love my Volt. Maybe it will be a collectors car some day. Amazing piece of engineering. I charge at work and at home and use gas about once every two months. I don't have "range anxiety", I have "range requirements"; no way I'm going on an 8 hour drive to go skiing in the Adirondacks or in Vermont with a pure electric. A pure BEV won't meet my needs.

Soon you'll be able to. Range anxiety goes away with time and planning. Fast DC chargers are going to be everywhere in the near future. They're already on every major highway except i94.

No offense, but deep in the mountains or out in rural northern Ontario, etc. where I'd like to go... will be the last place that DC fast chargers will go.

I'm a big fan of the EV movement, I'll own a BEV someday, but I feel that GM and EV-boosters in general have thrown the Volt-type range extended EVs under the bus. It is an amazing technical achievement and with the right marketing and product development could take the market by storm.

(I don't consider the Volt a PHEV, btw, but a range extended electric vehicle. It is the only "plugin hybrid" on the market that can operate purely electric without using the gas engine. And even when the gas engine kicks in, it performs like an EV.)

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#120

Post by tzs »

rootusrootus wrote: post #28
throw0101a wrote: post #26

My parents' house does not have a garage or a driveway, how exactly will the only-full-EV future work for them? Where are they supposed to charge?

At a supercharger/equivalent. We're getting to the point where EVs have enough range that they can be charged on nearly the same schedule as a gas car is refueled.

Longer range might let you get the frequency of charging stops down to a similar schedule as a gas car, but it doesn't do anything about the length of those stops.

In terms of time at the pump for a gas vehicle that gets 25 miles per gallon, and time on the charger at the newest Supercharger that Tesla announced a few months ago for an EV, to add enough gas or add enough charge, respectively, for a given number of miles, it takes about 15 times as long on the EV.

That's assuming a gas pump that can pump 10 gallons per minute, which is the fastest rate allowed by law in the US. A lot of pumps aren't that fast, so in practice the gas car might only "charge" 5 to 10 times faster than the fastest charging EV.

If someone goes in every 250 miles, then we are talking a minute at the gas pump best case (for a 25 mpg car), and 15 minutes for an EV, best case. With the gas car, that's fast enough that many people don't even have to think about it--they just go about their business and whenever the see that it is low, stop and get gas. You only need a little slack in your schedule to add an impromptu fill up. With the EV, you'll have to plan more, allowing for the longer charge breaks in your schedule (or stopping more often for shorter range changes).

I think the answer for dealing with EVs for people who do not a way to charge at home will not be the electric gas station model (unless charging can get an order of magnitude faster). Those stations will be for people passing through. For people who aren't just passing through, I think the answer will be to build charging stations at key places that people already visit regularly for 15 minutes or more at a time. Supermarkets, Walmart, Target, and places like that.

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