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How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

economist.com

31–40 of 174 posts

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#31
post #4

This is a process Brazilians know well. Chocolate bars used to have 200g. Some now have less than 100g. Toilet paper rolls used to have 50m; most now have 30m and some have only 10m. This sort of thing started happening in the 1980s, because the government had frozen prices (that always works well). It became such a problem that now the law says that the packaging must clearly point out if the quantity inside has cha…

> now the law says that the packaging must clearly point out if the quantity inside has changed. We need this law in the US. I’m not one to push for new regulations, but I have seen this happen time and again with big companies (Nabisco, General Mills) that shrink their boxes and count on the customer not to notice.

There there are alternatives:

(1) Recently I wanted a bag of sugar. At my closest grocery store, the bag was 4 pounds instead of 5. No problem: At my next stop at Sam's Club, I got two bags, 15 pounds each.

(2) Sometimes dish soap comes in small bottles. Okay, at Sam's get a gallon jug of their generic dish soap and with a funnel refill the small bottles. Same for glass cleaner, etc.

(3) Pizza can be $7 to $20. Okay. (i) In a 5 quart bowl, add 750 ml water and 1 T dry yeast. Let the yeast soften. Measure 1 kg of flour. Add 1 T salt to the water, stir, add 2/3rds of the flour, stir, add the rest of the flour, mix some, and dump on a floured board. By hand mix and knead for 8 minutes. Return to the bowl, cover, and let rise to fill the bowl. Dump on the board, form in a long loaf, cut into 8 equal pieces, place each each in a covered plastic bowl, refrigerate. Starting the next day for two weeks or so, for a pizza, take one of the dough pieces, in a microwave proof plate form in a circle 7-9" in diameter, and warm in microwave for 3 minutes. Add 3 T sauce, 1/4 C shredded Mozzarella, and maybe some pepperoni, sausage, etc., place in a clean steel pan, over medium heat, covered, for 13 minutes, move to a cutting board, slice, slide to a dinner plate, add 1 T of grated hard cheese, and eat. Get the flour, 25 pounds, at Sam's, and then the flour for one pizza is about 9 cents. With good toppings, the total cost is still about $1. So, anytime, in 20 minutes, 7 of effort and 13 waiting, get a pizza faster, better, and cheaper than frozen, carryout, or delivery.

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#32
post #22

>The uncertainty principle If it happens on a sufficiently large scale, the practice of tweaking quality in lieu of price could play havoc with essential economic data. Statistical agencies do their best to account for changing product quality, but if adjustments are unexpectedly common or subtle then muted inflation figures could easily be concealing a more turbulent economic picture. Central banks watching for big…

Viewed from one bottom, the quality of toilet paper is of intense interest. Viewed across many bottoms it becomes less about how peachy soft the Charmian is and more about the effect in the balance of payments importing bumwad instead of making your own from local splinters in a pulp mill employing people. CPI has to bridge both cheeks: it has to reflect what one person can relate to and what entire nations actually…

And still, we need to have accurate pricing data (reflecting quality and content) if we want to make accurate macroeconomic decisions in a modern age where the historical understanding of inflation and full employment appears to be broken, among other concerns your bum and most bums could appreciate—like the immediate effects of technological change and automation pertaining to your job or UBI... that gives your bum a cozy chair to sit in.

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen this pattern in academic settings myself. There's simply a lot of tunnel vision. Although, as a parent comment pointed out (a bit rudely) there's acknowledgement of various shortcomings of measures such as CPI, there's also a tendency to assume these models are accurate in policy-setting institutions. I'd say they're maybe as accurate as predicting weather in the Great Lakes Region. Also: r/economics should…

Mod of r/economics here. If you want informed people on economics on reddit, go to r/badeconomics which is the more tightly knit hangout for professional economists and grad students. Otherwise, go to the economics cluster on twitter. r/economics is like r/news with an econ twist. It's too large to effectively moderate.

[deleted]

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#34
Next time someone tells you, "Well even the poorest of us today eats better than a king in the middle ages" think about this quality "inflation". What is the current cost today of putting high quality, wild meat on the table along with seasonally ripe and fresh fruit? What about high quality beer with no use of malt substitutes?

There are a number of measures, availability being one, where our modern food production system shines but on a quality measure it really falls flat against many times throughout history. The caveat there is obviously "history" is gigantic and runs the gamut from poor slaves eating gruel and starving to a patrician in Rome during its height or to a hunter gatherer in a food rich environment.

All that to say, I don't think this comparison is so simple, it is incredibly nuanced.

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#35
post #19
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd also like to see a law passed that requires each product to mention on its packaging if its ingredients (even just their relative proportions) have changed. This would apply to things like foods/drinks and also cleaning products. Of course companies would protest, claiming that their recipes are trade secrets, but we already require that products list their ingredients, and we protect trademarks for products, whi…

> I'd also like to see a law passed that requires each product to mention on its packaging if its ingredients (even just their relative proportions) have changed. This would apply to things like foods/drinks and also cleaning products. Ridiculous proposition. Formulations change pretty much constantly for various reasons (ingredients become more expensive, or you change suppliers, or you decide to adjust something to…

As a consumer I rather like it when I know how much filler is added in my products

1. I want to be able to compare w other brands 2. I don’t want any filler at all!

If chocolate goes up in price, I’ll pay more to get the real stuff, or buy less of it. I most certainly won’t buy a bar of food wax with chocolate solids, or whatever Hershey is

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> now the law says that the packaging must clearly point out if the quantity inside has changed. We need this law in the US. I’m not one to push for new regulations, but I have seen this happen time and again with big companies (Nabisco, General Mills) that shrink their boxes and count on the customer not to notice.

> We need this law in the US We'd end up in a miasma of litigation around whether one product is a reduced quantity of another, or if they're separate product lines. Products already list quantities. That's enough for someone paying attention to value.

Not composition.

I’ll do the math. But I do want wt%

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#37
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> now the law says that the packaging must clearly point out if the quantity inside has changed. We need this law in the US. I’m not one to push for new regulations, but I have seen this happen time and again with big companies (Nabisco, General Mills) that shrink their boxes and count on the customer not to notice.

There there are alternatives: (1) Recently I wanted a bag of sugar. At my closest grocery store, the bag was 4 pounds instead of 5. No problem: At my next stop at Sam's Club, I got two bags, 15 pounds each. (2) Sometimes dish soap comes in small bottles. Okay, at Sam's get a gallon jug of their generic dish soap and with a funnel refill the small bottles. Same for glass cleaner, etc. (3) Pizza can be $7 to $20. Okay.…

> So, anytime, in 20 minutes, 7 of effort and 13 waiting, get a pizza faster, better, and cheaper than frozen, carryout, or delivery.

I don't know where you live, but in Manhattan your version will be cheaper, but it will definitely not be better and most likely will be no faster.

Neither your stove nor your oven can match a commercial pizza oven.

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#38
post #34

Next time someone tells you, "Well even the poorest of us today eats better than a king in the middle ages" think about this quality "inflation". What is the current cost today of putting high quality, wild meat on the table along with seasonally ripe and fresh fruit? What about high quality beer with no use of malt substitutes? There are a number of measures, availability being one, where our modern food production…

>What is the current cost today of putting high quality, wild meat on the table along with seasonally ripe and fresh fruit? What about high quality beer with no use of malt substitutes?

Still easily within reach of anyone but the poor. Sounds like pretty standard yuppie organic restaurant material.

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#39
post #4

This is a process Brazilians know well. Chocolate bars used to have 200g. Some now have less than 100g. Toilet paper rolls used to have 50m; most now have 30m and some have only 10m. This sort of thing started happening in the 1980s, because the government had frozen prices (that always works well). It became such a problem that now the law says that the packaging must clearly point out if the quantity inside has cha…

Toilet paper should be measured by volume, not length.

Both width and thickness of the sheets can vary. For both, larger is better. All three measurements interact together when forming a wad of paper. All three contribute to the size of the wad.

Re: How shrinkflation is playing havoc with economists’ models

#40
post #39
post #4

This is a process Brazilians know well. Chocolate bars used to have 200g. Some now have less than 100g. Toilet paper rolls used to have 50m; most now have 30m and some have only 10m. This sort of thing started happening in the 1980s, because the government had frozen prices (that always works well). It became such a problem that now the law says that the packaging must clearly point out if the quantity inside has cha…

Toilet paper should be measured by volume, not length. Both width and thickness of the sheets can vary. For both, larger is better. All three measurements interact together when forming a wad of paper. All three contribute to the size of the wad.

Density also matters, or you could cheat and sell a roll of paper "fluff".

Also, many people fold rather than wad.

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