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Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

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Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#121

Post by sokoloff »

sauwan wrote: post #81
ghostbrainalpha wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But can't the airlines then introduce random price spikes into their own algorithm just to abuse Google?

Wouldn't it have to be a price drop for google to be out any money? It's a low price guarantee, so price spikes would only make them look good. Airlines aren't going to randomly drop prices to spite google...

It would cost them almost nothing to drop the price of their remaining economy seats 33 minutes before departure on a few select flights where Google sold many tickets.

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#122

Post by nihonde »

acomjean wrote: post #4

Google putting the finishing touches om the ITA software acquisition. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITA_Software But oddly closed google trips, which frankly was decent. Google sometimes seems like incoherent.

Some of Google’s biggest ad customers are OTAs. That explains a lot about their moves (or failure to move) in the travel space.

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#123

Post by ammar2 »

CydeWeys wrote: post #119
londons_explore wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not quite what this is. The 'best price guarantee' guarantees the customer will receive the lowest price for their ticket. Google will refund them if anyone gets a lower price. The airline can release, for 30 seconds only, a much lower price. Then Google has to refund all their customers, and the airline might only sell a handful of tickets at the lower price. Remember airline tickets aren't fungible. They hav…

This seems like something you could easily cover in the terms of service. Remember that law doesn't really work like programming does.

30 seconds seem to be at least somewhat covered by their ToS.

"Prices are measured between the purchase date and the departure date of your eligible itinerary." [1]

The key things to interpret there are "between" and "departure date". For example, I would interpret that as price changes on the day of the flight don't count. (i.e between is exclusive and date means the date, not date and time).

[1] https://travel.google.com/intl/ALL_us/booking/flights/guaran...

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#124

Post by dwild »

ghostbrainalpha wrote: post #58
primitivesuave wrote: post #6

Once their algorithm can predict prices to a certain level of accuracy, they can effectively offer investment hedging to the public for free, and use the publicity to drive commissions on referrals. Unlike other commodities whose value is subject to numerous economic forces, the pricing is set directly (by the airlines), and it is likely that simply by observing their pricing over time a sophisticated Google algorith…

But can't the airlines then introduce random price spikes into their own algorithm just to abuse Google?

> But can't the airlines then introduce random price spikes into their own algorithm just to abuse Google? reply

If they only guarantee the price of the same airline (which make sense considering that different airline offer different quality of service), then that would just hurt Google once without benefiting the airline and in fact, it would hurt the airline in Google.

The terms are clear: When we predict the price won’t decrease for select itinerarie

If airlines have unpredictable random price spikes, then they won't be able to qualify for the price guarantee. Having that guarantee seems like a good value add and may bring more customer toward theses offers. I don't know if Google would place theses airline higher in the result, but it would make sense because that's something that someone may prefer.

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#125

Post by dewey »

londons_explore wrote: post #83
kortilla wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>No one in the class could really argue against it because as far as monopolies that Google could possibly create, that's pretty minor. That’s really goofy reasoning. Just because google is huge and could do much more evil doesn’t mean that a small amount of evil (destroying the airline itinerary quote market) is ok. Is that what you meant to say?

The airline industry quote market is very much not dead though.... Skyscanner, kayak, etc...

Do you know what they are using under the hood?

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#126

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

mav3rick wrote: post #60
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #50

I recently searched for flights via Google Flights (for Frontier). The price shown for the exact same itinerary was ~$50 more on Google Flights than when I used my smartphone on a different network (disabled WiFi), going directly on Frontier's website. This could be because Google counted for things like, for example, 1 checked bag when comparing all flights. I don't have enough knowledge on the matter, but I will ab…

Google flights charges no middleman fee. It definitely would have added a carry on. you can easily remove it

I don't know why they wouldn't start charging a middleman fee someday. What other value would they get from building Google Flights?

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#127

Post by koolba »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #109
everdev wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The profit from accurately predicting future prices would dwarf advertising / computing revenue. The problem with any prediction is as soon as it's acted on or made public it starts to affect the system requiring an updated prediction. If enough people buy into the prediction it's a self fulfilling prophecy. So much of pricing is influenced by human nature though. Good luck predicting that consistently over time.

Also, the airlines could change their algorithm - randomly. If for no other reason than to muck with Google.

From their detail page:

> How much money can I get back? Price guarantee pays you the difference between the flight price when you book and the lowest ticket price. To get money back, the price difference must be greater than $5. You can receive up to $500 back total for all of the flights you book with Google price guarantee.

That’d be pretty hilarious for an airline to explicitly dick them over for $500 a pop.

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#128

Post by sokoloff »

izacus wrote: post #67
human20190310 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They definitely have an incentive to take advantage of Google. If an airline regularly drops the price, and Google keeps refunding the price difference out of their own pockets, word will get out. People are going to preferentially book on that airline, knowing that the day before the flight they're going to get a big rebate. That brand loyalty will remain even if Google kicks them off of their platform. Moreover, as…

But... why? Google is refunding passengers, not the airlines. The airline already sold an expensive ticket thanks to Google. Why in the world would you attack a business partner that brings you customers in such a strange way?

Airlines run on razor thin margins now. If they believe that people in the future will know where they want to fly and will search for tickets wherever tickets are sold (see Southwest) and they can get a bunch of free advertising and sell some expensive tickets by burning Google, I think they'd at least consider doing it.

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#129

Post by jonknee »

koolba wrote: post #127
chiefalchemist wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, the airlines could change their algorithm - randomly. If for no other reason than to muck with Google.

From their detail page: > How much money can I get back? Price guarantee pays you the difference between the flight price when you book and the lowest ticket price. To get money back, the price difference must be greater than $5. You can receive up to $500 back total for all of the flights you book with Google price guarantee. That’d be pretty hilarious for an airline to explicitly dick them over for $500 a pop.

Somehow I think Google would manage to outsmart them at their own game.

Re: Google to Offer a Best Price Guarantee on Certain Flights

#130

Post by JumpCrisscross »

primitivesuave wrote: post #6

Once their algorithm can predict prices to a certain level of accuracy, they can effectively offer investment hedging to the public for free, and use the publicity to drive commissions on referrals. Unlike other commodities whose value is subject to numerous economic forces, the pricing is set directly (by the airlines), and it is likely that simply by observing their pricing over time a sophisticated Google algorith…

> it is likely that simply by observing their pricing over time a sophisticated Google algorithm has "learned" the airline's less sophisticated ones

Simple systems acting in concert are devilishly complex. (Former algorithmic trader.)

Counterparties' systems fail. They misfire. They get confused by the weather and interns punching in parameters wrong. Internal dynamics, like someone stretching to hit a goal or getting lucky on a hedging contract, are material and unpredictable.

And that's the least of it. The limits on the sorts of adversarial behaviors that manifest when counterparties know you have an algorithm watching are profound. It incentivises betting against the watchman. Google may have the data. But the airlines control the book.

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