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Google Will Become an AI Company

mattmaroon.com

121–130 of 168 posts

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contrary to what you may think, I was being thoughtful of this but did not think it required rehashing. You however, exactly reiterate my point, you didn't do any due diligence, just put certainly in italics. How about some facts instead? Simply go to maps.google.com and search for Chicago, IL to New York, NY. Ok, 14 hours trip currently. Now, let's take a premise of 200 miles per hour. Now, tell me, can you travel 2…

http://xkcd.com/386/ I wrote a big counter-argument before remembering my oft-ignored rule about avoiding stupid arguments online. My apologies for wasting your time. I'm sure we both have better things to do.

That's silly. Internet arguments are entertaining and productive.

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, I gotcha, thanks. I've only ever heard those called "3D printers". Google only turned up either artificial tree makers or logging equipment. The Make magazine follows CTM/3DP stuff pretty closely: http://blog.makezine.com/

It's the latest name. Don Lancaster's been calling them Santa Claus machines for about 15 years now...

Actually, that seems like a low estimate. I think I remember him already having coined that term when I was buying his books 20 years ago...

...And Don was already Old School then...

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#123
post #110

Saying Google is poor at product development is just trolling. List of well-designed, dominant Google products include: * Search * Gmail * Docs * Reader * Images * News * Maps If only other companies failed at product development so well...

What about YouTube? It's much more successful than the last 6 of your examples (maybe except Maps)

YouTube was an acquisition.

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#124

Did no one stop to think about this? It is extremely far-fetched at best. >safety regulations could be greatly relaxed. No, at least not if the author's vision of 200mph average speeds is to be taken. When a mistake or malfunction happens at that speed, safety mechanisms will be imperative. Furthermore, having a mechanical car does not prevent: someone else running into you, a deer running in front of the car, etc. >…

You really shouldn't complain about someone not having any facts and then fail to provide them yourself. Watch, I'll do the same thing:

>No, at least not if the author's vision of 200mph average speeds is to be taken. When a mistake or malfunction happens at that speed, safety mechanisms will be imperative. Furthermore, having a mechanical car does not prevent: someone else running into you, a deer running in front of the car, etc.

One would presume eventually there would be heavily monitored dedicated freeways for automated vehicles to travel. You could build a single lane tunnel between major cities even, since a single lane is all you need since accidents will become exceedingly rare.

Once you have a dedicated, single lane enclosed highway, a monitoring system can be aware of deer and outside complications and you can surely get up to high speeds.

>But they wouldn't, because the purchase would still be in the name of the parent. Furthermore, do you see parents sticking their 6 year olds on the subway just because they can? No. A very few do it and get ostracized by society.

You do realize how many school children take a school bus every day?

>Oh really? So we won't need limits for the existing drivers who aren't using driverless vehicles? How will the 200mph traveling car navigate around all the 60mph traveling ones? Furthermore, is every car going to be programmed to go slow in pedestrian zones? How do you enforce that without speed limits? The current Google Car wasn't jetting 200mph down the 101, it was driving under the speed limit in residential neighborhoods.

The OP is basically looking on a 25-50 year timeline not a 10 one. Think dedicated automated smart roadways and situations where "manual" driving is as rare as a VHS VCR today.

>No. Fuel costs and traffic don't just magically disappear because of your fantasy land.

You're assuming today's fuel costs. Future cars will be much more efficient, and will be electric so the delivery mechanism will be more efficient as well. Also note automated drivers will be able to use the transmission much more effectively, since they'll be able to be aware of the layout of the roadway and adjust gears accordingly.

> I will. Just because you can live outside the city and travel to it at a faster rate does not make it a given that one would choose to.

He never said nobody will want to live in the city. He said that "commuting" as we know it will be a thing of the past, as you won't be actually losing any time to transportation. So, many people that currently would dread living so far away (but would love to for better scenery, access to schools, etc.) due to the horrific commute may reconsider it once they can actually be productive during the trip. (Not to mention the trip will be a lot faster than it is today for the reasons above.)

Edit: Oh, and to his point about flying. If you do the math, I think you'll find at 200mph door-to-door time between many cities is close to what you'd expect for a flight if you take into account time traveling to and from the airport and time in the airport. This, combined with the fact that traveling by automated luxury car will certainly be more enjoyable than traveling by coach, even if the trip is slightly longer, will make an interesting tradeoff between air and road appear.

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#125

I'd say google IS an AI company. They do doc classification, nlp, speech to text, vision, etc. They may not be great at some parts of it, but their systems are constantly being trained and getting smarter as they release more products and acquire more data.

+1

Yes, Google is a machine learning company. And any sufficiently advanced machine learning technology is indistinguishable from AI magic. :-)

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the latest name. Don Lancaster's been calling them Santa Claus machines for about 15 years now...

Actually, that seems like a low estimate. I think I remember him already having coined that term when I was buying his books 20 years ago... ...And Don was already Old School then...

...so how long did it take before your copy of The Incredible Secret Money Machine was ripped off :-)

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#127
After reading through much of the discussion regarding Matt's many interesting points, it's somewhat troubling that nobody addresses the most obvious problem with the realization of sufficiently good AI. In both cases mentioned, in regards to cars, taxis, buses, and call centers, you displace thousands to millions of human workers. While this is all very nice in our tech fantasy lands if these scenarios come to pass you have another mass displacement of low -> middle skilled workers.

It's of my opinion (I also remember reading about a global conference regarding this issue),that our current society can't withstand another displacement event of this size, even if it does come gradually. In the United States anyway, we can already see massive unemployment due to certain jobs just not existing anymore, for example, token booth clerks, replaced by automated kiosks, cashiers replaced by automatic kiosks, conductors replaced by automated trains, etc. etc.

Furthermore, there is always less need for highly skilled workers as the top, so say you displace 1000 construction workers due to automation, you may only need 100 foremen, leaving those previously 900 workers unemployed with no prospects of employment even with sufficient education. It's a major problem in my opinion, and possibly a problem we'll have to deal with in our lifetime, especially if we see minor to significant improvements in AI and automation.

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#128
post #87

Did no one stop to think about this? It is extremely far-fetched at best. >safety regulations could be greatly relaxed. No, at least not if the author's vision of 200mph average speeds is to be taken. When a mistake or malfunction happens at that speed, safety mechanisms will be imperative. Furthermore, having a mechanical car does not prevent: someone else running into you, a deer running in front of the car, etc. >…

do you see parents sticking their 6 year olds on the subway just because they can? Maybe not 6, but certainly 8 year olds are quite capable of using public transport and happily do so in many parts of the world. I know I was taking the bus to the library when I was 8 or 9 and the train into town when I was 10, and that wasn't strange in the slightest.

kids going to school - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hUTzQXyQSo&feature=relat...

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#129

After reading through much of the discussion regarding Matt's many interesting points, it's somewhat troubling that nobody addresses the most obvious problem with the realization of sufficiently good AI. In both cases mentioned, in regards to cars, taxis, buses, and call centers, you displace thousands to millions of human workers. While this is all very nice in our tech fantasy lands if these scenarios come to pass…

I don't see the problem; lowering scarcity lowers the need for employment. A king's feast from the 1800s can be bought today with welfare money. When we eliminate the need for all jobs, we can just relabel ourselves "socialist" and call it a day.

Re: Google Will Become an AI Company

#130

Did no one stop to think about this? It is extremely far-fetched at best. >safety regulations could be greatly relaxed. No, at least not if the author's vision of 200mph average speeds is to be taken. When a mistake or malfunction happens at that speed, safety mechanisms will be imperative. Furthermore, having a mechanical car does not prevent: someone else running into you, a deer running in front of the car, etc. >…

> No. It will still be faster to fly. Are you serious? I mean gee why fly from New York to London when I can take a speed boat and have it take three days? I mean, seriously?

I never consider flying from edinburgh to london, a journey I make fairly regularly. the flight takes 3/4 hours less, but door to door ends up around the same time, and is far far less comfortable than the train.

> I will. Just because you can live outside the city and travel to it at a faster rate does not make it a given that one would choose to.

I dont think he was trying to say every single person would move out of the city, just that it would be an attractive option for more people, which isnt really arguable in the hypothetical situation that commutes are fast and comfortable

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