U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#111

Post by emilsedgh » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:46 PM UTC

mevile wrote: post #94

emilsedgh wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chances of that happening are really close to zero though. The world economy (and specially US economy) badly relies on Chinese.

The chances are not close to zero, they are much higher. The trade war with China is one of the very few topics where many Democrats support the administration. If the US caves now China will have won an enormous victory and will be able to dictate any further terms of trade with the US, which is a really bad outcome. There is very little chance that the current administration will accept a loss here on a fight they…

US can barely put sanctions on Iran as of now and the rest of the world is hesitant to follow. It took ~8 years to get the sanctions on Iran to that point.

Even if US wanted to go nuclear and push for China being cut from SWIFT:

1. It will be suicide. Cutting China from SWIFT will have very very big impact in the US.

2. US corporations have too much interest to lose in here. No way corporate America allows that to happen.

3. The rest of the world is already pissed at US for pulling out from Iran deal. They are not following US regarding Iran. How do you propose they would follow US' lead to put such sanctions on China and suffocate themselves?

Again, the chances of China being cut from SWIFT are close to zero.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#112

Post by chrisjc » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:47 PM UTC

realmod wrote: post #105

rossdavidh wrote: post #67

So, really, is there any doubt that this is true? China's currency exchange rate has been abnormally stable for a long time, and the Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan administrations all knew it was the result of currency manipuliation. They just found it politically unpalatable to admit it out loud. The real question would be, why is the U.S. finally admitting this out loud? 1) amping up a trade war 2) decoupli…

Actually China was designated currency manipulators by Clinton from 1992 to 1994

Interesting. What changed in 1994?

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#113

Post by codingslave » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:47 PM UTC

tunesmith wrote: post #108

codingslave wrote: post #89

The long story to this is that the Chinese dont like what Trump is doing, he is the first to stand up to their tactics. The thing is, if Trump doesn't get reelected, a democratic candidate will most likely not continue the trade war. China has every incentive to place pressure on the us stock market in the hope that it ruins Trumps chances at reelection. So they play this long waiting game, in the chance that Trump d…

From that perspective, what is arguably good about this trade war continuing?

Its a battle for who is the world economic power in 20 or 30 years. The american public doesn't understand what is at stake here. Unfortunately the media is calling Trump a buffoon, when the trade war, and possible subsequent economic hit to the USA, is vital to our long term economic future.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#114

Post by empath75 » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:49 PM UTC

havetocharge wrote: post #78

rossdavidh wrote: post #67

So, really, is there any doubt that this is true? China's currency exchange rate has been abnormally stable for a long time, and the Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan administrations all knew it was the result of currency manipuliation. They just found it politically unpalatable to admit it out loud. The real question would be, why is the U.S. finally admitting this out loud? 1) amping up a trade war 2) decoupli…

US decoupling itself from China would have an avalanche of effects, including huge inflation on most consumer goods, and outright product shortages. China is also a huge foreign debt holder, and if presumably no longer a buyer due to decoupling, will send US interest rates skyrocketing.

The us decoupling itself from China would be an unmitigated disaster for the us as China would align itself with Russia.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#115

Post by systematical » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:49 PM UTC

Wouldn't a more effective US strategy against China been to get the EU, Japan, and South Korea in on the tarrifs as well? Might as well throw in Canada and Mexico as well on account of being NAFTA partners. That would account for all of Chinas major trading partners. Japan and SK might have been difficult, but a combined North America + EU might have done the trick.

Maybe the Trump Administration tried this, but I find it unlikely since this Administration opened up lambasting our traditional allies. This trade war as it stands is going nowhere. China won't budge.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#116

Post by busymom0 » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:50 PM UTC

markvdb wrote: post #107

3% stock market movements set in motion by the US president alone. "Great" insider trading potential. Have someone set up the right derivatives strategy and bam: instant millions. I couldn't convince myself to immediately write that idea off as utter nonsense. Anyone with more relevant financial experience? Can you reassure me this would be difficult to pull off? Or would you have to confirm this would be difficult t…

Even IF this were the case, Insider trading has been allowed in congress for a long time. There was the STOCK act passed in 2012 to prevent it, the very next year it was amended to get rid of strict disclosure requirements.

Nancy Pelosi for example (speaker of the democrat majority house) is worth 140 million dollars. One has to wonder how a life time politician has managed to get that much wealth.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#117

Post by dragonwriter » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:52 PM UTC

codingslave wrote: post #113

tunesmith wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that perspective, what is arguably good about this trade war continuing?

Its a battle for who is the world economic power in 20 or 30 years. The american public doesn't understand what is at stake here. Unfortunately the media is calling Trump a buffoon, when the trade war, and possible subsequent economic hit to the USA, is vital to our long term economic future.

[flagged]

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#118

Post by psbmt » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:52 PM UTC

rolltiide wrote: post #43

rdtsc wrote: post #32

I have no idea what all this means so tried to read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_manipulator . Found it interesting that "Switzerland have been manipulating their currency more than China since 2009 and Germany and South Korea since 2014" Still it is not clear what that means in terms next steps. Will there be more tariff increases or sanctions? And then China will devalue their currency even more. So where…

Okay, no, Germany can't manipulate its currency as they don't have their own, they use the Euro. Germany does have large influence over Brussels being the economic powerhouse of the Eurozone currency union, and the European Central Bank is in Frankfurt but really accountable to no-one, being led by an Italian man from Goldman Sachs. And yes, these 'currency manipulator' designations are a point of political convenien…

>Germany can't manipulate its currency as they don't have their own, they use the Euro.

And who owns the Euro? Let me tell you, it's not the poor countries of the EU.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#119

Post by Areading314 » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:53 PM UTC

paganel wrote: post #57

Areading314 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think that the US Federal Reserve System, which sets monetary policy based on very reasonable inflation and unemployment targets, is equivalent to a full-blown nationalist-controlled central bank, that is devaluing its currency to support a mercantilist agenda? I think it's pretty clear that China is able and willing to devalue far more than would be possible or palatable for the Fed.

Not the OP but I personally do think that, yes. I personally do not find that much of a difference between Draghi's 2012 "whatever it takes" message (and ECB's subsequent actions) and currency moves like the ones carried out lately by the Chinese. Granted, the Fed has not yet hired any helicopter for its boss to throw money out of but some of its post-2009 actions (like the well-known QE) were pretty much the same th…

QE was a response to deflationary pressures related to massive deleveraging after the financial crisis. Inflation has barely touched 2% since then, and there was no devaluation of the dollar against foreign currencies. In fact the dollar has been appreciating against most other major currencies.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#120

Post by busymom0 » Mon, Aug 05, 2019, 11:54 PM UTC

tunesmith wrote: post #108

codingslave wrote: post #89

The long story to this is that the Chinese dont like what Trump is doing, he is the first to stand up to their tactics. The thing is, if Trump doesn't get reelected, a democratic candidate will most likely not continue the trade war. China has every incentive to place pressure on the us stock market in the hope that it ruins Trumps chances at reelection. So they play this long waiting game, in the chance that Trump d…

From that perspective, what is arguably good about this trade war continuing?

So far it has worked pretty well for the US and China has been suffering. 6 million jobs with 2 million manufacturing jobs alone created since his election. China has lost a lot of manufacturing jobs and a lot of manufacturers are moving away from China and either coming back to US or moving to places like India where IP theft isn't a huge problem.