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U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

wsj.com

61–70 of 356 posts

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#61
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. It's caused by China's central bank printing currency in response to tariffs, essentially using currency as a weapon.

OK. tariffs => printing money, so tariff is the root cause, no?

There are plenty of good reasons why China deserves tariffs, why not start there as the root cause?

Protectionism, IP theft, banning or heavily restricting US tech firms from operating in (aka exporting to) China, the list goes on.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#62
post #21

Stock futures down another 2%. Amazing how much money one can lose in a matter of days. Stomach churning.

If the yield curve inversion didn't convince you to pull out, just leave everything parked and stop looking at it.

The curve inversion forecasts the hit to be a year or so from now, so if you really believed in the yeild curves you'd still be in.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#64

China can outlast the US on this one. Next up, let's crash the price of oil and flip off the Iran sanctions: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/brent-and-wti-price-could-cr...

China would have a lot more room to move were the Hong Kong protests were not going on. The big problem they face is putting down the protests violently could lead towards pronouncements of them violating the agreement for it being held over. Which will lead toward countries people openly selling heavy weapons to Taiwan and maybe even building bases.

I really doubt China cares a bit about the agreement signed with the UK. They are more concerned alienating HK people which is hard not to do unless they put the integration with the mainland on hold for a few good years.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#65
post #47

It ends with China being cut off from SWIFT and correspondent banking. That would probably make them re-think their approach to economic warfare.

Considering how much stuff they produce I don't think that would end with them rethinking anything but rather establishing a different financial order with anyone who was willing to trade with them. And I think a lot of Europe and Asia would be on board for steep discounts.

The US would just need to cut off a few banks to trigger a credit crisis in China, they are already bailing out banks.

Who knows how this all will play out, won't be pretty either way.

I bet this is all empty brinkmanship.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#66

It ends with China being cut off from SWIFT and correspondent banking. That would probably make them re-think their approach to economic warfare.

That would also do crippling damage to US and other foreign companies doing business with China. Even the current tariffs and counter-tariffs have cost US companies many billions. Qualcomm alone is estimated to have lost about a billion dollars in sales.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#67
So, really, is there any doubt that this is true? China's currency exchange rate has been abnormally stable for a long time, and the Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan administrations all knew it was the result of currency manipuliation. They just found it politically unpalatable to admit it out loud.

The real question would be, why is the U.S. finally admitting this out loud? 1) amping up a trade war 2) decoupling U.S. economy from China 3) trying to leverage China into doing something differently, perhaps regarding North Korea

Some of these, of course, would interfere with others, for example you can't use it as leverage in #3 if China thinks you'll keep pursuing it anyway no matter what, due to #1 or #2.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This means you have about a million dollars in stock investments alone, which you put you in a different class.

That would keep me calm! I'm pleased to report though that I lost nothing, since that's about how much I have.

Get something started ASAP.

I left a job when I was 28 with a depressing $21k in 401k. After sitting there for 16 years, it's now... big enough where it lost almost that much this last week.

Compounding... really... works...

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#69

China can outlast the US on this one. Next up, let's crash the price of oil and flip off the Iran sanctions: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/brent-and-wti-price-could-cr...

China would have a lot more room to move were the Hong Kong protests were not going on. The big problem they face is putting down the protests violently could lead towards pronouncements of them violating the agreement for it being held over. Which will lead toward countries people openly selling heavy weapons to Taiwan and maybe even building bases.

How much impact have the Hong Kong protest had on trade? If I had to my guess, exactly zero.

And more weapons to Taiwan because of that? What for?

Maybe I'm being cynic but I don't see the needle moving here.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#70
post #46

This is just nonsense. All central banks "manipulate" their currencies. The FED did that by printing trillions in QE. The FED did that in 1973 when they went off the gold standard. The FED did that in 1935 when they changed the value of the dollar. Funnily enough, the only way other major currencies can stop depreciation is by having more dollars. The way to do that would be more exports. But trade-warrer-in-chief ju…

> So Trump is the manipulator, not China?

"currency manipulator" is a legal designation, not just an insult. It has 3 requirements (someone linked to the Wiki in another thread).

I'm pretty sure Trump wants to weaken the USD to increase US manufacturing and make our exports more competitive with the world, but I don't see that he has a plan to do it. He seems to be grabbing for any kind of leverage he can get to bully other economies into making promises to increase their imports of US exports.

It's just giving false hope to US industries which no longer have a competitive advantage in the world market... long enough to last through the next presidential election.

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