Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 356 posts

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#41

Post by tyre »

joezydeco wrote: post #8

China can outlast the US on this one. Next up, let's crash the price of oil and flip off the Iran sanctions: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/brent-and-wti-price-could-cr...

I don't know about that. What makes China's political situation difficult is that the control and censorship they impose on their people is easier to justify when the economic fortunes of the average Chinese person has risen for decades. "Why complain? Life is getting better!"

Authoritarianism is a lot less appealing when the ruling party doesn't deliver.

In the US there is a sense that the political system is certainly influenced by corporations, lobbying groups, HNI, foreign actors, etc. but generally we are to blame for electing idiots as president. We did this to ourselves.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#42

Post by devoply »

Yes considering the US prints hand over fists amounts of money to deal with its economic woes, it's sort of a joke where the emperor wears no clothes, but no one says anything because he's the emperor.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090915/quant...

> "In theory, currency manipulation and a monetary policy like quantitative easing aren't the same thing. One is interest rate policy based and the other currency focused. However, as central banks began their QE programs, one result was the weakening of its currency.

> Intentional or not, it can be argued that QE is, in some way, a form of currency engineering. Whether its manipulation that will always be up for debate."

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#43

Post by rolltiide »

rdtsc wrote: post #32

I have no idea what all this means so tried to read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_manipulator . Found it interesting that "Switzerland have been manipulating their currency more than China since 2009 and Germany and South Korea since 2014" Still it is not clear what that means in terms next steps. Will there be more tariff increases or sanctions? And then China will devalue their currency even more. So where…

Okay, no, Germany can't manipulate its currency as they don't have their own, they use the Euro. Germany does have large influence over Brussels being the economic powerhouse of the Eurozone currency union, and the European Central Bank is in Frankfurt but really accountable to no-one, being led by an Italian man from Goldman Sachs.

And yes, these 'currency manipulator' designations are a point of political convenience and are not evenly applied.

Monetary policy for the last decade worldwide has been outright currency manipulation and market interventions using devalued currency.

This excess currency has fueled bubbles in all markets: Rental, housing, stocks, venture capital, startups, art, crypto, government bonds, corporate bonds, junk bonds, collectibles, you name it.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#44

Post by eanzenberg »

xwdv wrote: post #36
tempsy wrote: post #21

Stock futures down another 2%. Amazing how much money one can lose in a matter of days. Stomach churning.

Not even days. I lost $24k today, and $60k since last week. The thing that keeps you calm though is that sometimes it’s amazing how much money you can actually make in a matter of days, or a single day.

This means you have about a million dollars in stock investments alone, which you put you in a different class.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#45

Post by tyre »

nostromo wrote: post #40
Jorge1o1 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the trade balance is too skewed in favor of the US. It will be painful for both sides, but we have a lot more goods we can tariff than they can. Of course, they could also dump their US treasuries, but it would be a pyrrhic victory for China. They would hurt themselves too much in the process.

The US Fed would simply buy the dumped treasuries as an emergency measure. The Fed already owns twice as many treasuries as does China, so it could also just pause the balance sheet reduction program. It wouldn't dramatically hurt the US long term.

That's a bold statement. We're talking about over $1tn in treasuries. While the US debt is already around $22tn, that's a pretty huge weight

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#46

Post by NTDF9 »

This is just nonsense. All central banks "manipulate" their currencies. The FED did that by printing trillions in QE. The FED did that in 1973 when they went off the gold standard. The FED did that in 1935 when they changed the value of the dollar.

Funnily enough, the only way other major currencies can stop depreciation is by having more dollars. The way to do that would be more exports. But trade-warrer-in-chief just slapped 10% tariff on Chinese exports. If their exports go down, their currency will go down.

So, in effect, Trump caused the Yuan to devalue? So Trump is the manipulator, not China?

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#47

Post by devoply »

internet_user wrote: post #38

It ends with China being cut off from SWIFT and correspondent banking. That would probably make them re-think their approach to economic warfare.

Considering how much stuff they produce I don't think that would end with them rethinking anything but rather establishing a different financial order with anyone who was willing to trade with them. And I think a lot of Europe and Asia would be on board for steep discounts.

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#48

Post by AnimalMuppet »

internet_user wrote: post #30
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the RMB was left to find a market value, it would fall way below 7 to probably 7.5 or even 8 something. Yes, it is being manipulated, but in the other way that Trump says it is. The Chinese are simply running out of the dollars needed to keep manipulating it so that it stays stronger than 7! The simple irony is that if the Chinese were just to give up manipulating the RMB all together, Trump would be even more ang…

There is a certain criteria, and neither Swiss, Koreans, or Japanese meet that criteria.

Could you be more specific?

And, did China meet the criteria before this latest move?

(And, minor nit: criterion is singular. Criteria are plural.)

Re: U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator

#49

Post by CamperBob2 »

eanzenberg wrote: post #44
xwdv wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not even days. I lost $24k today, and $60k since last week. The thing that keeps you calm though is that sometimes it’s amazing how much money you can actually make in a matter of days, or a single day.

This means you have about a million dollars in stock investments alone, which you put you in a different class.

Doesn't mean any such thing. Maybe s/he is into options? It hurts to watch that much money go away even when it's in the form of unrealized gains.
Post reply on HN