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Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

bloomberg.com

21–30 of 79 posts

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#22
> new wind and solar energy projects combined with battery-powered electric vehicles

Less than 0.3% of electricity in the US is generated by oil (in 2018). The proper comparison for wind/solar for grid energy would be against natural gas/nuclear/hydropower.

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#23
Oil primary use is as motor fuel for cars, trucks, planes and ships, and it's also used a a feedstock for the chemical industry. Renewables haven't been successful in either yet. This article assumes that electric cars are going to take off and replace internal combustion engines, which may not happen after all.

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#24
post #2

Oil will be priced according to supply and demand. There may still be use cases which require oil. And however cheap the competition can produce oil it will be priced. This is non-news.

> however cheap the competition can produce oil it will be priced

This assumes a perfectly competitive market, which is far from reality. Oil production is dominated by a cartel.

As a cartel can increase prices to maximise profitability, to a large extent, the price of oil is controlled by the price elasticity of demand.

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#25

> new wind and solar energy projects combined with battery-powered electric vehicles Less than 0.3% of electricity in the US is generated by oil (in 2018). The proper comparison for wind/solar for grid energy would be against natural gas/nuclear/hydropower.

Sure, but the comparison is also gas cars vs electric cars + green grid, not just electric cars + green grid vs electric cars + gas/nuclear/hydro grid.

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#26

> new wind and solar energy projects combined with battery-powered electric vehicles Less than 0.3% of electricity in the US is generated by oil (in 2018). The proper comparison for wind/solar for grid energy would be against natural gas/nuclear/hydropower.

The report is comparing petrol/diesel against solar/wind plus batteries specifically in the context of road transport.

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#27
What people need to have in mind is that oil, when compared with solar/wind power, acts both as a storage for energy(battery) and also the power/energy itself.

So that means, you need a battery. The price of the battery, its decay and so on, has to be taken into account in that price. Does that aforementioned price for the barrel of oil includes that? I think not.

If everybody would go electric Today, the price of a battery would go to infinity, as there is not enough supply for that demand. If the changes happens too fast, the price for the battery and it's longtime cost would be higher than oil, even with oil at $100. Which for me makes all this argumentation that oil will die useless and pointless.

And to those prophets of "Oil will disappear": Oil will still exist, but won't have a monopoly in cars, some machinery etc anymore. I believe consumers will still buy cars powered by oil as long as it is worth it.

It's an industry that generates a lot of jobs, has a huge effect on GDP and I'm very sure countries will change very gradually to electric vehicles.

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#28

> new wind and solar energy projects combined with battery-powered electric vehicles Less than 0.3% of electricity in the US is generated by oil (in 2018). The proper comparison for wind/solar for grid energy would be against natural gas/nuclear/hydropower.

As more and more electric vehicles hit the road, the price of oil will start to compete with the price of electricity. While you're correct that in the past oil and renewable cost comparisons weren't very relevant, electrifying transportation is changing that paradigm.

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#29

Oil primary use is as motor fuel for cars, trucks, planes and ships, and it's also used a a feedstock for the chemical industry. Renewables haven't been successful in either yet. This article assumes that electric cars are going to take off and replace internal combustion engines, which may not happen after all.

The report is assuming that road transport will go to whichever technology is cheaper, and that current learning rates for batteries and wind/solar will continue for the next 25 years.

Re: Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives

#30

The worry is that oil companies are making investments now for 10, 20 or 30 years into the future and not taking into account the realities of making a return. There are all sorts of long term capital costs for setting up oil fields, refineries, pipelines and so on, and then marginal costs for each barrel thereafter. Under a scenario of total road transport electrification, demand would be drastically reduced, meanin…

> Under a scenario of total road transport electrification [...]

I think 30-year oil investments are relatively safe if this is their threat. I can’t see this happening in less than 30 years.

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