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The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

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Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#171

Post by hodr »

kileywm wrote: post #160
bluGill wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need 60amps for high speed charging, but can't you plug into a 15 amp outlet and charge overnight? You are correct that the grid will need updating - all those houses using 15 amps more add up.

Yes, but it is quite slow. Even 12 hours of charging might not be enough for someone's commute. For example, let's look at Honda's PHEV, the Clarity. 17kWh battery. 47 miles EV range. Charge time @ 120V = 12 hours. It essentially can charge up to 4 miles of range per hour on a standard circuit in a US home. Cold weather? Your power needs go up, range goes down, and charge rate drops as well. 15 amps @ 120V EV chargin…

Why would you pick a PHEV for comparison? They are going to get a worse MPGe (because of the extra weight) and have a smaller battery (no catching up on charging during the weekend).

But more importantly, they can backup to gas so if you can only do 80% of your trip electric there is no real problem, you still are getting great fuel economy.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#172

Post by whenchamenia »

ianai wrote: post #115
sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

People HATE the maintenance requirements of cars. If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service with a usable life of something closer to 1 million miles and decades of use then suddenly paying a premium for their models can be spread over much greater periods of time. Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (singl…

Reduced maint on ecars is a meme. They still have brakes, axles, tires, coolant, etc.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#173

Post by clouddrover »

hodr wrote: post #167
clouddrover wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service Teslas have quite poor reliability so far: - https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27725/tesla-fleet-company-stru... - https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows... I'm sure Tesla will improve with time but they're not going to out-Toyota Toyota any time soon.

It only took Kia 6 years to out-Toyota Toyota, that is to go from producing the worst mainstream cars in the us to the best in initial and 3 year quality metrics (and well above Toyota). (2009 when they built first US production line to 2015).

Nope, Toyota's still number one:

https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expe...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/toyotas-a...

Toyota has the most flexible production and the most reliable cars. Toyota isn't the biggest selling brand by accident.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#174

Post by amadeusw »

Reason077 wrote: post #143
glogla wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on the location. In cities that have trams, metro and electric trains, the infrastructure shouldn't be that far out.

Taxis, city buses, UPS trucks, etc, all tend to be busy during the day. They get charged overnight, when grid demand is lower, and take advantage of low off-peak electricity prices. The idea that these things place a “huge strain on the grid” as the poster above suggests just sounds like more made up FUD.

No, the poster above is right. There was an article about this a month ago or so. Anyways, the TLDR is that vehicles need to charge more often than just nightly and not just at the main depot. Transit agencies need to build heavy duty fast charging infrastructure scattered across many locations in the city. This has been so far a large upfront cost which holds transit EV expansion at bay.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#175

Post by AgloeDreams »

rootusrootus wrote: post #166
AgloeDreams wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is hilariously misguided with little real truth to it. Are electric Cars heavier? Yes...but not really by much. Sure a Model S is heavy, but it is a full size car designed to compare with other 4000-pound range cars and a side effect of the platform's age meanwhile a Model 3 is less than 10% heavier than a BMW 3 series. The traction idea is just absurd. The real reason why Norway wants to raise the road tax is b…

Well, to be fair, a Model S weighs more than some F-150s, and a Model 3 can weigh more than 4000 pounds, which is pretty porky for such a small car. But ... I don't see what that really has to do with paying for roads. We will replace the gas tax, and in fact most places are already talking about how to do it. Doesn't seem like an intractable problem at all, and will probably be fixed well before EV adoption gets int…

I agree wholly on the second point though I will say as per the weight thing, the Model 3 actually weighs about 150 pounds more than a BMW 3 Series, its direct competition. Not a really light car but also not crazy heavy as claimed. The same goes for the Model S whereas its competition the MB S-Class, Audi A8, and BMW 7 Series all have similar weights. They are heavy cars for sure, compared to most compact cars, but that's more of a factor of their size and class rather than their drivetrain. Future BEV's will gain range from lighter drivetrains so it's def. a goal they will be seeking.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#176

Post by bluescrn »

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

Charging infrastructure seems likely to be a bottleneck, too. Not everyone can charge at home (on-street parking, apartments, etc). And then there’s the demands on the grid as an increasing number of people get home in the evening and start to charge their cars

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#177

Post by WorldMaker »

martythemaniak wrote: post #170
sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

I mostly agree. I see the lengths to which people go to save a few cents on gas (like $1.20 vs $1.13/litre around here) and I can't help but think that once the "gas" price of EVs starts to permeate the mass consciousness, ICE vehicles are done for (outside of some specific niches). I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as…

Yeah, I think the tipping point for gas price sensitivity to cede to a (much) faster boom in EVs is likely a lot closer than many analysts currently expect. Because that tipping point is also concomitant with the "range anxiety" switchover point. Once gas prices hit certain peaks, station shutdowns will snowball (as evidenced from previous events such as the 70s oil crisis, 00s recession, et al), and long range price volatility (rural/interstate gas prices versus daily driver city gas prices) will change the economics of a lot of long term trip planning quickly to ICE trips (back to) being as range sensitive or more than comparable EV trips. Gas logistics may be a lot easier to disrupt than a lot of people expect right now.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#178

Post by clouddrover »

whenchamenia wrote: post #172
ianai wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People HATE the maintenance requirements of cars. If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service with a usable life of something closer to 1 million miles and decades of use then suddenly paying a premium for their models can be spread over much greater periods of time. Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (singl…

Reduced maint on ecars is a meme. They still have brakes, axles, tires, coolant, etc.

> They still have brakes

Brake pads should last twice as long on an EV because the motor is used to recuperate energy. Here's a good braking demonstration with the Audi e-tron descending Pikes Peak:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5k5wAaDZw1o

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#179

Post by serpix »

clouddrover wrote: post #178
whenchamenia wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reduced maint on ecars is a meme. They still have brakes, axles, tires, coolant, etc.

> They still have brakes Brake pads should last twice as long on an EV because the motor is used to recuperate energy. Here's a good braking demonstration with the Audi e-tron descending Pikes Peak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5k5wAaDZw1o

twice? You only need brakes on an EV to stay still at the lights or in an emergency brake. That is it. The brakes last well over the entire lifetime of the car.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#180

Post by namlem »

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

In terms of production, Tesla is definitely making moves to get to a mass production position. With their recent price drops, the Model 3 is actually pretty affordable. Tesla's big problem now is with marketing. Making money selling the Model S by word of mouth alone was easy, but that's not going to be possible with the Model 3,and Tesla still hasn't caught on despite weak sales. They need to start buying ads ASAP.
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