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The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

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Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#161

Post by hwillis »

Erlich_Bachman wrote: post #65

Aren't other metals like Nickel and whatnot are the main bottleneck for the vast numbers of batteries required for the electric car boom? Didn't we already know for the long time that lithium is very abundant, but it's those other metals (which are required much less by mass, but still required) that might be a problem, and this is why different companies are betting on different lithium chemical processes, because t…

Cobalt yes, kind of. Nickel absolutely not. Every single car, globally, could be electrified without making a big dent in nickel demand. Stainless steel is FAR more demanding of nickel.

Cobalt is tricky because in most places it's a byproduct of nickel mining, and it is only mined on its own in a couple places (notably the DRC). Despite that it's fairly likely that it will scale well, and it also becomes less and less relevant as electrodes reduce the amount of cobalt they use.

Virgin spheroidal graphite is another possibly-constrained supply, as it's a very particular kind of hard coal. Luckily it can be produced artificially- batteries use a roughly 40-60 mix and it costs roughly the same. IIRC natural graphite has a slightly higher power output and synthetic graphite has higher capacity, due to the nanoscale patterning of the graphite grains. As coal mining decreases graphite will probably just become more artificially produced, since it can be made from essentially anything.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#162

Post by intrasight »

ianai wrote: post #115
sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

People HATE the maintenance requirements of cars. If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service with a usable life of something closer to 1 million miles and decades of use then suddenly paying a premium for their models can be spread over much greater periods of time. Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (singl…

>If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service...

I drive a 15 year old Volvo wagon that almost never needs service :)

Of course I exaggerate - I probably average $150/month in maintenance. Sorry, but the chances of Tesla doing the same over 15 years is zero.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#163

Post by duckymcduckface »

rmm wrote: post #70
yread wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks, that's interesting. And what do you think of this PFS? https://www.share-talk.com/european-metals-hldg-aimemh-pfs-c... People in .cz think this is a gold mine but investors don't seem to agree

I remember looking at that project back in the day and couldn’t make the numbers work. Not sure if much has changed. Firstly it’s an underground mine which is inherently much higher risk/cost compared to open cut. Second logistically it’s a world away from customers (Asia etc) Again if they had kicked it off back when, and were in production now they could have locked in some good terms from the starved customers and…

I'd that they don't have any measured resources on their list, it's half inferred and half indicated. So moderate uncertainty about everything down there.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#164

Post by rootusrootus »

snarfy wrote: post #103
joe-collins wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a robust charging network is a third dependency. You need to have a garage, or commute to someplace with or near a charger. Down here in San Diego (East County), I don't see a lot of the latter.

You need a garage, and a circuit with 60A capacity. Most houses built today have 200A total capacity, older homes are 100A. At some point the electric grid will need updated.

The average car gets what, 12K miles a year? That's about 8 hours a night on average. You could easily get by without a 60A socket, and even if you do have a fast charging socket you're not going to be pulling 50A all night.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#165

Post by VBprogrammer »

sokoloff wrote: post #152
Reason077 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EV batteries should last much longer than 10 years. Ideally, they should last the lifetime of the vehicle. Most manufacturers, including Tesla, provide an 8 year warranty on battery and drivetrain.

I believe the 8 year warranty is driven by the federal requirement to warrant emissions systems for 8 years/80K miles. I think that all EV manufacturers are providing at least that level of warranty for battery and electric motor and think that it's likely linked to the federal emissions control warranty requirement. There's a school of thought that past the warranty period, the traction battery is likely going to la…

> when the battery dies, there is likely no economically sound way to replace with a new battery

While I can imagine that being a very likely scenario; I can also imagine a future where someone down at the local shopping mall will change the battery out for a Chinese compatible unit while you do your shopping. In the same way the currently do for phone batteries, screens etc.

It would be great for standard agencies / governments to get out in front of the electric car industry and demand standardised form factors for batteries and charging infrastructure. At the moment it would probably limit innovation too much though.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#166

Post by rootusrootus »

AgloeDreams wrote: post #100
want2know wrote: post #96

There are other problems arising for electric cars: road tax. Electric cars are way havier than most cars and have so much traction that road maintenance will be much more expensive when everybody has an electric car. This is why countries like Norway and the Netherlands are thinking about raising the road tax for electric vehicles. I also think this is why brands like Toyota are still thinking about hydrogen cars. T…

This is hilariously misguided with little real truth to it. Are electric Cars heavier? Yes...but not really by much. Sure a Model S is heavy, but it is a full size car designed to compare with other 4000-pound range cars and a side effect of the platform's age meanwhile a Model 3 is less than 10% heavier than a BMW 3 series. The traction idea is just absurd. The real reason why Norway wants to raise the road tax is b…

Well, to be fair, a Model S weighs more than some F-150s, and a Model 3 can weigh more than 4000 pounds, which is pretty porky for such a small car.

But ... I don't see what that really has to do with paying for roads. We will replace the gas tax, and in fact most places are already talking about how to do it. Doesn't seem like an intractable problem at all, and will probably be fixed well before EV adoption gets into the double digits.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#167

Post by hodr »

clouddrover wrote: post #132
ianai wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People HATE the maintenance requirements of cars. If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service with a usable life of something closer to 1 million miles and decades of use then suddenly paying a premium for their models can be spread over much greater periods of time. Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (singl…

> If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service Teslas have quite poor reliability so far: - https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27725/tesla-fleet-company-stru... - https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows... I'm sure Tesla will improve with time but they're not going to out-Toyota Toyota any time soon.

It only took Kia 6 years to out-Toyota Toyota, that is to go from producing the worst mainstream cars in the us to the best in initial and 3 year quality metrics (and well above Toyota).

(2009 when they built first US production line to 2015).

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#168

Post by rtkwe »

intrasight wrote: post #158
duckymcduckface wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fun fact, there is no spot market for lithium. Lithium is sold on a contract by contract basis and there isn't an equivalent of the London Metal Exchange price.

Any idea why that is?

Probably because most uses of lithium are heavily processed and it's not particularly useful or safe in it's raw form, so if you're going to use it you're more likely to need an oxide or something instead of the raw metal.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#169

Post by hodr »

snarfy wrote: post #103
joe-collins wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a robust charging network is a third dependency. You need to have a garage, or commute to someplace with or near a charger. Down here in San Diego (East County), I don't see a lot of the latter.

You need a garage, and a circuit with 60A capacity. Most houses built today have 200A total capacity, older homes are 100A. At some point the electric grid will need updated.

Average commute for the US is 26 miles a day, but more than half drive considerably less than the average.

For the people for whom an electric car makes sense, the overwhelming majority could make due with a level 1 charger (12 amps 110 volts).

L1 charger provides 4-5 miles of charge per hour, so 8 hours in the garage at night would more than make up for the commute. If you have a larger range (200+ miles) you can make it up on the weekends.

If you have a 100+ mile commute each day, sure get a L2 charger. Or better yet, buy a hybrid.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#170

Post by martythemaniak »

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

I mostly agree. I see the lengths to which people go to save a few cents on gas (like $1.20 vs $1.13/litre around here) and I can't help but think that once the "gas" price of EVs starts to permeate the mass consciousness, ICE vehicles are done for (outside of some specific niches). I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this.

As for Tesla, they don't have any intent on being in the proper budget space, ie $15k mini cars. They've stated they will release a compact car in 3-5 years (no other info), but I doubt it'll ever cost less than $25k, probably more like $30k. And that's probably just fine and dandy with Tesla, as Apple has shown capturing a high-end clientele and their fat profits is a great place to be.

Their plan for the "budget" space is robotaxis, which of course depends on their FSD program. We'll see how that goes.

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